Mesoscale Discussion 962

Issued

Jun 13, 2021, 6:15 PM MDT (00:15 UTC)

Expired

Jun 13, 2021, 8:15 PM MDT

In force

2 hr

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Concerning

Severe thunderstorm watch 268

The North Platte radar (KLNX), 151 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:16 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

417 
ACUS11 KWNS 140016
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 140015 
NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-140215-

Mesoscale Discussion 0962
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0715 PM CDT Sun Jun 13 2021

Areas affected...Western Nebraska and far northeast Colorado

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 268...

Valid 140015Z - 140215Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 268
continues.

SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms should continue to
move eastward across west Nebraska this evening, and will pose a
risk for hail as well as strong winds. A more robust damaging wind
threat may evolve in the coming hours, but confidence is somewhat
low.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms that initially developed in the vicinity
of a surface low across southeast WY continue to gradually shift
east within the mean flow regime. This activity has produced several
hail reports, with a few hail stones up to 1.75 inches noted. Storm
motions and wide spacing have made cold pool consolidation
difficult, so little upscale growth has occurred and the wind threat
has been somewhat limited spatially. New development within a
diffuse surface warm front along the NE/SD border may experience
favorable storm motion/initiating boundary orientations to foster
upscale growth over the next 1-2 hours, which could support a more
robust damaging wind threat given steep low-level lapse rates. The
overall weak deep-layer flow casts some uncertainty into this
scenario, however. If this occurs, a downstream watch across central
NE may be considered. Otherwise, the severe threat should remain
fairly isolated as storms continue to meander further into western
NE and far northeast CO.

..Moore.. 06/14/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON   40240247 40520367 40850452 41220459 42030415 42600381
            42970314 42980179 42750115 42610038 42020014 41350020
            40730040 40230089 40200180 40220234 40240247

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The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.