Mesoscale Discussion 906

Issued

Jun 10, 2021, 2:17 PM CDT (19:17 UTC)

Expired

Jun 10, 2021, 4:15 PM CDT

In force

118 min

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Concerning

Severe potential...watch unlikely

Chance of a watch

20%

The Duluth radar (KDLH), 178 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:18 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

114 
ACUS11 KWNS 101918
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101917 
MIZ000-WIZ000-MNZ000-102115-

Mesoscale Discussion 0906
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0217 PM CDT Thu Jun 10 2021

Areas affected...Northern Wisconsin and western UP of Michigan

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 101917Z - 102115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are possible
in northern Wisconsin into the western UP of Michigan.
Semi-organized storms are most likely near the WI/MI border where
shear is maximized. Some clustering potential exists, but overall
evolution of the marginal threat is uncertain. No WW is expected.

DISCUSSION...Isolated storms have begun to initiate along a surface
boundary as well as along inland-moving lake breeze boundaries in
northern Wisconsin into the western UP. Continued surface heating
and perhaps very subtle influence from the southern flank of a
shortwave trough will likely promote additional storm development
this afternoon. Stronger mid-level winds across the UP will mean
storms farther east will tend to be better organized and perhaps
produce marginally severe hail. However, -8 C temps at 500 mb will
tend to keep most hail small. The primary threat, however, will
likely be damaging wind gusts given the very steep lapse rates at
low levels. With the potential for scattered thunderstorms there is
some possibility for a slightly  more organized cluster to evolve
later this afternoon, particularly near the WI/MI border where shear
is greater. Some CAM guidance has shown this occurring with even
some potential for such a cluster to propagate southward into the
axis of greatest buoyancy. Along with uncertainty in the magnitude
of storm organization, the overall threat for severe weather remains
marginal. No WW is expected this afternoon.

..Wendt/Guyer.. 06/10/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...

LAT...LON   46889214 46908984 46668822 45778688 45098721 44468848
            44379019 44549124 45059212 45529270 46129283 46459276
            46889214

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The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.