Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 79
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Feb 14, 2021, 7:53 AM MST for Doña Ana County, Eddy County, Otero County, New Mexico; 10 counties in Texas. It was in force for 6 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Feb 14, 2021, 7:53 AM MST (14:53 UTC)
- Expired
- Feb 14, 2021, 2:00 PM MST
- In force
- 6 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Heavy snow
Counties Doña Ana County, NM, Eddy County, NM, Otero County, NM, Brewster County, TX, Culberson County, TX, El Paso County, TX, Hudspeth County, TX, Jeff Davis County, TX, Loving County, TX, Pecos County, TX, Presidio County, TX, Reeves County, TX, Ward County, TX
The radar
The El Paso radar (KEPZ), 151 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 14:52 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Santa Teresa, NM (KEPZ), launched 12:00Z, 2.9 hours before the alert went out and 151 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1025 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 57 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -70 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- -11 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
947
ACUS11 KWNS 141454
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141453
TXZ000-NMZ000-142100-
Mesoscale Discussion 0079
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0853 AM CST Sun Feb 14 2021
Areas affected...far west Texas and southeastern New Mexico
Concerning...Heavy snow
Valid 141453Z - 142100Z
SUMMARY...Several hours of heavy snow will shift southeastward
across the discussion area through around 21Z.
DISCUSSION...Recent METAR observations indicate areas of heavy snow
near the El Paso, Texas area and vicinity. The precipitation in the
area is likely being enhanced by strong lift associated with an
upstream mid-level vorticity maximum amid steep (nearly 9 deg C/km)
lapse rates aloft evident in the 12Z EPZ RAOB and point forecast
soundings. The convective nature of the precipitation will likely
allow for areas of lightning flashes along with localized areas of
1-2 inch-per-hour snowfall rates beneath heavier bands. Orographic
lift may also enhance snowfall rates locally.
Latest guidance (including CAMs) indicate that the ongoing bands of
heavy snow will gradually shift/develop southeastward along the Rio
Grande Valley along and ahead of the path of the mid-level wave.
The expectation is that periodic heavy snow will reach the Marfa,
Texas vicinity by around 19Z. Snowfall should end from west to east
beginning after around 19Z as well.
..Cook.. 02/14/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...
LAT...LON 32410690 32930653 33090559 32680437 32000317 30730258
29640303 29440418 30260514 31440650 31970679 32410690SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 14, 11:05 AM MST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Andrews, Archer, Baylor, Borden, Brown, Callahan and 65 more | 6 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in New Mexico, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.