Alert archive / New Jersey / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 754
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 26, 2021, 6:34 PM EDT for 7 states. It was in force for 116 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 26, 2021, 6:34 PM EDT (22:34 UTC)
- Expired
- May 26, 2021, 8:30 PM EDT
- In force
- 116 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe thunderstorm watch 205...206
All 63 counties
Kent County, DE, New Castle County, DE, Sussex County, DE, Anne Arundel County, MD, Baltimore County, MD, Calvert County, MD, Caroline County, MD, Carroll County, MD, Cecil County, MD, City of Baltimore, MD, Frederick County, MD, Harford County, MD, Howard County, MD, Kent County, MD, Montgomery County, MD, Prince George's County, MD, Queen Anne's County, MD, Talbot County, MD, Atlantic County, NJ, Bergen County, NJ, Burlington County, NJ, Camden County, NJ, Cape May County, NJ, Cumberland County, NJ, Essex County, NJ, Gloucester County, NJ, Hudson County, NJ, Hunterdon County, NJ, Mercer County, NJ, Middlesex County, NJ, Monmouth County, NJ, Morris County, NJ, Ocean County, NJ, Passaic County, NJ, Salem County, NJ, Somerset County, NJ, Union County, NJ, Bronx County, NY, Kings County, NY, New York County, NY, Richmond County, NY, Bucks County, PA, Chester County, PA, Delaware County, PA, Montgomery County, PA, Philadelphia County, PA, Arlington County, VA, City of Alexandria, VA, City of Fairfax, VA, City of Falls Church, VA, City of Manassas, VA, City of Manassas Park, VA, City of Winchester, VA, Clarke County, VA, Fairfax County, VA, Fauquier County, VA, Frederick County, VA, Loudoun County, VA, Prince William County, VA, Rappahannock County, VA, Warren County, VA, Berkeley County, WV, Jefferson County, WV
The radar
The Dover AFB radar (KDOX), 107 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:37 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Washington/Dulle, VA (KIAD), launched 12:00Z, 10.6 hours before the alert went out and 117 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 478 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -132 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 922 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 28 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 35 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 50 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.2
The text
As transmitted.
055
ACUS11 KWNS 262235
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262234
NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-270030-
Mesoscale Discussion 0754
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0534 PM CDT Wed May 26 2021
Areas affected...Portions of Mid-Atlantic
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 205...206...
Valid 262234Z - 270030Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 205, 206
continues.
SUMMARY...Damaging wind gusts remain a concern with convection
nearing the Atlantic Coast. A few isolated storms near the Blue
Ridge and along the cold front may pose a low-end threat for strong
winds.
DISCUSSION...The most intense and organized convection near the
Atlantic Coast will impact portions or northern and central New
Jersey into western Long Island. Surface observations show much
cooler air in central and eastern Long Island. Parts of this
convective line will likely move offshore within the next hour. With
a narrow corridor of temperatures into the mid/upper 80s F, damaging
gusts will be possible in the short term. In Maryland and northern
Virginia, convection has been more of a broken line. A similar
hot/unstable airmass is ahead of a cluster now approaching the
Delmarva. Damaging gusts will be possible here for the next 1-1.5
hours. A small cluster has recently developed along the Blue Ridge
and is moving east. This may pose a threat for damaging gusts as
well, but stable air awaits this activity in the wake of early
convection and continued loss of boundary-layer heating. This threat
will be likely short-lived.
Farther north and west along the synoptic cold front, lingering
convection may persist this evening. With the boundary layer
stabilizing, isolated strong gusts would be the main threat before
this activity diminishes.
..Wendt.. 05/26/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...
LAT...LON 39357857 39547805 39637674 39877618 39897605 40607522
41087479 41177428 40947381 40097397 39357445 38777493
38587553 38517645 38497705 38487761 38637821 38907860
39357857SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 26, 1:21 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Kent, New Castle, Sussex | 84 min |
| May 26, 2:48 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Kent, New Castle, Sussex | 7 hr |
| May 26, 4:41 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Kent, New Castle | 64 min |
| May 26, 12:16 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Albany, Allegany, Broome, Cattaraugus, Cayuga, Chautauqua and 32 more | 119 min |
| May 26, 12:59 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Albany, Broome, Chemung, Chenango, Columbia, Cortland and 23 more | 7 hr |
| May 26, 2:07 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Albany, Chenango, Cortland, Fulton, Greene, Madison and 6 more | 83 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in New Jersey, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Maryland, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Virginia, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.