Alert archive / Illinois / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 7

January 1, 20214 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jan 1, 2021, 6:35 AM CST for 4 states. It was in force for 4 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jan 1, 2021, 6:35 AM CST (12:35 UTC)
Expired
Jan 1, 2021, 11:00 AM CST
In force
4 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Freezing rain
All 48 counties

Des Moines County, IA, Lee County, IA, Adams County, IL, Brown County, IL, Bureau County, IL, Cass County, IL, Champaign County, IL, DeWitt County, IL, Ford County, IL, Fulton County, IL, Grundy County, IL, Hancock County, IL, Henderson County, IL, Henry County, IL, Iroquois County, IL, Kankakee County, IL, Kendall County, IL, Knox County, IL, LaSalle County, IL, Livingston County, IL, Logan County, IL, Macon County, IL, Marshall County, IL, Mason County, IL, McDonough County, IL, McLean County, IL, Menard County, IL, Mercer County, IL, Morgan County, IL, Peoria County, IL, Piatt County, IL, Pike County, IL, Putnam County, IL, Sangamon County, IL, Schuyler County, IL, Scott County, IL, Stark County, IL, Tazewell County, IL, Vermilion County, IL, Warren County, IL, Will County, IL, Woodford County, IL, Benton County, IN, Jasper County, IN, Lake County, IN, Newton County, IN, Warren County, IN, Lewis County, MO

The radar

The Lincoln radar (KILX), 58 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 12:35 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Lincoln, IL (KILX), launched 12:00Z, 0.6 hours before the alert went out and 88 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Lincoln, IL at 12:00Z on 2021-01-01Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Lincoln, IL at 12:00Z on 2021-01-01The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 177 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
1303 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
68 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
177 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
324 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

598 
ACUS11 KWNS 011235
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011235 
INZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-011700-

Mesoscale Discussion 0007
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0635 AM CST Fri Jan 01 2021

Areas affected...extreme northeast MO...southeast IA...central and
northern IL into northwest IN

Concerning...Freezing rain 

Valid 011235Z - 011700Z

SUMMARY...Periods of moderate to heavy freezing rain will continue
across far northeast MO into central IL and parts of northwest IN
early this morning. Precipitation rates will increase across
northern IL over the next couple of hours.

DISCUSSION...A band of freezing rain, moderate to heavy at times,
will continue from far northeast MO into central IL and northwest IN
the next couple of hours. As the upper low over OK continues to
eject northeast this morning, a strong deformation zone will lift
northward across the northern IL vicinity. Meanwhile, strong warm
advection in the 850-700 mb layer will continue to support efficient
precipitation rates over a shallow near-surface cold layer around
26-32 degrees F. Freezing rain rates have been as high as 0.05
inches per hour for brief periods early this morning, but overall
rates of around 0.03-0.05 inches per 3 hour period are more
widespread. Some areas could see brief instances of snow or sleet
mixing with freezing rain, especially as the upper low tracks closer
to the region and midlevel temperatures cool sufficiently later this
morning toward midday.

..Leitman.. 01/01/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...

LAT...LON   40439171 40899129 41119106 41429018 41618887 41608808
            41588763 41458729 41248701 40998681 40578695 40268744
            39918819 39728911 39539020 39659118 40029179 40279183
            40439171

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jan 1, 1:08 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBond, Brown, Calhoun, Cass, Champaign, Christian and 43 more5 hr
Jan 1, 2:33 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdams, Brown, Calhoun, Cass, Greene, Jersey and 4 more5 hr
Dec 31, 8:44 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBarry, Barton, Benton, Camden, Cedar, Christian and 35 more6 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Illinois, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Indiana, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Iowa, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.