Mesoscale Discussion 2

Issued

Dec 31, 2020, 8:44 PM CST (02:44 UTC)

Expired

Jan 1, 2021, 2:45 AM CST

In force

6 hr

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Concerning

Freezing rain

The Springfield radar (KSGF), 58 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 02:48 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

941 
ACUS11 KWNS 010245
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010244 
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-010845-

Mesoscale Discussion 0002
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0844 PM CST Thu Dec 31 2020

Areas affected...Portions of northeast Oklahoma...southeast
Kansas...southwest into central Missouri

Concerning...Freezing rain 

Valid 010244Z - 010845Z

SUMMARY...Freezing rain potential is expected to increase over the
next several hours across portions of northeast OK into central MO.

DISCUSSION...Precipitation has remained relatively light thus far
across portions of far northeast OK into central MO given the
presence of a dry 850-700 mb layer (per 00Z SGF observed sounding).
However, this dry layer, along with freezing/near-freezing surface
temperatures will encourage evaporative cooling with the onset of
heavier precipitation advecting from the south, making freezing at
the surface more likely. A few METAR observations have indicated
that light ice accumulations are already occurring along the MO/AR
border, as wet bulb surface temperatures have already begun to drop
below freezing in several locales. Low-level moisture/warm-air
advection and associated heavier precipitation is expected across
northeast OK/southeast KS into MO later this evening as a low-level
warm conveyer belt pivots to the north with a slow moving occluding
upper low in TX. As such, the later evening heavier precipitation
may reach the surface to efficiently freeze, with up to 0.03-0.06
in/3 hr rates possible in spots, especially in the 06-09Z period, as
suggested by the 12Z HREF, the last few runs of the HRRR, and by 01Z
RAP forecast soundings.

..Squitieri/Bunting.. 01/01/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...ICT...

LAT...LON   36209549 36729557 37419514 38329347 38599201 38729129
            38599083 38199044 37809037 37489065 37129131 36829196
            36479291 36259470 36209549

Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.