Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 559
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 7, 2021, 3:47 PM CDT for Beaver County, Cimarron County, Texas County, Oklahoma; 9 counties in Texas. It was in force for 118 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 7, 2021, 3:47 PM CDT (20:47 UTC)
- Expired
- May 7, 2021, 5:45 PM CDT
- In force
- 118 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe potential...watch possible
- Chance of a watch
- 40%
Counties Beaver County, OK, Cimarron County, OK, Texas County, OK, Dallam County, TX, Hansford County, TX, Hartley County, TX, Hutchinson County, TX, Lipscomb County, TX, Moore County, TX, Ochiltree County, TX, Roberts County, TX, Sherman County, TX
The radar
The Amarillo radar (KAMA), 103 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:51 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Amarillo Airport, TX (KAMA), launched 12:00Z, 8.8 hours before the alert went out and 104 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1870 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 37 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 341 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 598 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
504
ACUS11 KWNS 072047
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 072047
TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-072245-
Mesoscale Discussion 0559
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0347 PM CDT Fri May 07 2021
Areas affected...The Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 072047Z - 072245Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Scattered strong to severe storms may pose an increasing
wind threat for the Oklahoma and northern Texas Panhandles in the
coming hours. A watch is possible if a more robust clustering trend
is noted.
DISCUSSION...Satellite and radar trends from northeastern NM and the
northern OK/TX Panhandles show a variety of isolated cells and
loosely organized clusters - some of which have exhibited transient
signs of cold pool propagation despite the weak flow regime. Some of
these storms have produced near-severe winds (a recent 52 mph gust
is noted at the Eva, OK Mesonet site), but larger clustering and
cold pool consolidation has not yet become apparent. Surface
observations from the TX Panhandle reveal 40-50 degree dewpoint
depressions indicative of a dry, well-mixed boundary layer. This
idea is supported by recent RAP forecast soundings as well as recent
mesoanalyses, which indicate that nearly 9 C/km lapse rates are in
place across the Panhandles. This, along with sufficient mid-level
moisture and cold temperatures aloft, is contributing to around 1000
J/kg SBCAPE with minimal inhibition. This environment will continue
to support strong to severe wind gusts, though it remains to be seen
if the isolated clusters can consolidate further and pose a more
widespread severe wind threat. Trends will be monitored and a watch
is possible if confidence in this potential increases.
..Moore/Thompson.. 05/07/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...PUB...ABQ...
LAT...LON 35770299 36310306 36970251 37070140 36810020 36320020
35890055 35620094 35590184 35650258 35770299Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.