Alert archive / Kentucky / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 460

April 28, 20216 counties in Kentucky; Henry County, Houston County, Stewart County, Tennessee

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Apr 28, 2021, 7:25 PM CDT for 6 counties in Kentucky; Henry County, Houston County, Stewart County, Tennessee. It was in force for 65 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Apr 28, 2021, 7:25 PM CDT (00:25 UTC)
Expired
Apr 28, 2021, 8:30 PM CDT
In force
65 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Severe thunderstorm watch 118

Counties Caldwell County, KY, Calloway County, KY, Christian County, KY, Lyon County, KY, Marshall County, KY, Trigg County, KY, Henry County, TN, Houston County, TN, Stewart County, TN

The radar

The Ft Campbell radar (KHPX), 63 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:26 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Nashville Metro, TN (KBNA), launched 00:00Z, 0.4 hours before the alert went out and 138 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Nashville Metro, TN at 00:00Z on 2021-04-29Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 389 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Nashville Metro, TN at 00:00Z on 2021-04-29The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 147 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
389 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-49 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
925 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
49 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
147 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
153 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.4
Supercell composite
1.9

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

252 
ACUS11 KWNS 290025
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 290025 
KYZ000-TNZ000-290130-

Mesoscale Discussion 0460
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0725 PM CDT Wed Apr 28 2021

Areas affected...Western Kentucky and far Northwestern Tennessee

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 118...

Valid 290025Z - 290130Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 118
continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat has begun to diminish across most of WW
118, but an isolated cell across northwest Tennessee will continue
to support a severe threat through at least 01 UTC.

DISCUSSION...Recent satellite and radar trends have shown a gradual
weakening of the convective line within WW 118 across western KY
over the past 1-2 hours. The main severe threat has now become
primarily limited to a discrete supercell that has emerged on the
southern flank of the line and along the weak surface baroclinic
zone in northwest TN. This cell has exhibited signs of low-level
rotation, and recent observations from the KHPX VWP show 150 m2/s2
0-1 km SRH remains in place ahead of the storm. Because of this, a
severe hail/wind risk will persist at least through 01 UTC before
diurnal cooling begins to increase inhibition. Additionally, a brief
tornado will remain possible in the near-term given the
environmental low-level shear. To the north of this supercell, a
weak MCV has had occasional updraft pulses, but these have largely
been transient and have posed minimal severe risk. While an instance
of damaging wind remains possible, the severe potential will
continue to decrease as this feature moves into a more stable air
mass.

..Moore.. 04/29/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   36428874 36718855 37148831 37338780 37248736 36998718
            36678722 36438747 36248774 36198816 36258853 36428874

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Apr 29, 3:14 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBallard, Caldwell, Calloway, Carlisle, Crittenden, Fulton and 8 more3 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Kentucky, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Tennessee, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.