Alert archive / Florida / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 397

April 18, 202113 counties in Florida

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Apr 18, 2021, 9:35 PM EDT for 13 counties in Florida. It was in force for 85 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Apr 18, 2021, 9:35 PM EDT (01:35 UTC)
Expired
Apr 18, 2021, 11:00 PM EDT
In force
85 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Severe potential...watch unlikely
Chance of a watch
5%

Counties Brevard County, FL, Hardee County, FL, Hernando County, FL, Hillsborough County, FL, Lake County, FL, Manatee County, FL, Orange County, FL, Osceola County, FL, Pasco County, FL, Pinellas County, FL, Polk County, FL, Seminole County, FL, Sumter County, FL

The radar

The Tampa radar (KTBW), 77 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:37 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Tampa Bay, FL (KTBW), launched 00:00Z, 1.6 hours before the alert went out and 77 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Tampa Bay, FL at 00:00Z on 2021-04-19Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 1430 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Tampa Bay, FL at 00:00Z on 2021-04-19The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 51 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
1430 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-14 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
988 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
42 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
51 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
66 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.3
Supercell composite
2.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

363 
ACUS11 KWNS 190136
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 190135 
FLZ000-190300-

Mesoscale Discussion 0397
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0835 PM CDT Sun Apr 18 2021

Areas affected...the central Florida Peninsula.

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 190135Z - 190300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A line of storms will cross the Florida Peninsula during
the late evening/early overnight hours with a threat for isolated
damaging wind gusts. Current indications are that severe weather
intensity and coverage will be too limited to need a watch.

DISCUSSION...A loosely organized line of storms is currently
approaching the Florida coast west of Tampa. These storms have
formed ahead of a weak MCV which can be seen from KTBW WSR-88D base
reflectivity. This MCV is likely aiding the organization and the
best strong to isolated severe storm threat will likely remain in
close proximity to this feature as it crosses the peninsula. In
addition, some strengthening low-level flow is being observed around
1km in the KTBW VWP. This may also increase the likelihood of a
damaging wind gust or two as the line of storms crosses the Florida
Peninsula.

..Bentley/Hart.. 04/19/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...

LAT...LON   28438282 28698225 29018124 29048083 28358040 27828029
            27538135 27408271 27658282 27898289 28438282

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Apr 19, 4:36 AM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBrevard, DeSoto, Hardee, Highlands, Hillsborough, Indian River and 5 more2 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Florida, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.