Alert archive / Louisiana / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 377

April 13, 202122 parishes in Louisiana; Hancock County, Harrison County, Mississippi

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Apr 13, 2021, 11:43 AM CDT for 22 parishes in Louisiana; Hancock County, Harrison County, Mississippi. It was in force for 2 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Apr 13, 2021, 11:43 AM CDT (16:43 UTC)
Expired
Apr 13, 2021, 1:45 PM CDT
In force
2 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Severe potential...watch possible
Chance of a watch
60%
All 24 counties

Ascension Parish, LA, Assumption Parish, LA, East Baton Rouge Parish, LA, Iberia Parish, LA, Iberville Parish, LA, Jefferson Parish, LA, Lafayette Parish, LA, Lafourche Parish, LA, Livingston Parish, LA, Orleans Parish, LA, Plaquemines Parish, LA, Saint Bernard Parish, LA, Saint Charles Parish, LA, Saint James Parish, LA, Saint John the Baptist Parish, LA, Saint Martin Parish, LA, Saint Tammany Parish, LA, St. Mary Parish, LA, Tangipahoa Parish, LA, Terrebonne Parish, LA, Vermilion Parish, LA, West Baton Rouge Parish, LA, Hancock County, MS, Harrison County, MS

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Slidell Radar S, LA (KSIL), launched 12:00Z, 4.7 hours before the alert went out and 64 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Slidell Radar S, LA at 12:00Z on 2021-04-13Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Slidell Radar S, LA at 12:00Z on 2021-04-13The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 70 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
1989 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
41 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
70 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
88 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

815 
ACUS11 KWNS 131644
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131643 
MSZ000-LAZ000-131845-

Mesoscale Discussion 0377
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1143 AM CDT Tue Apr 13 2021

Areas affected...southern Louisiana/southern Mississippi

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 131643Z - 131845Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Along with ongoing/local hail potential, risk for locally
stronger wind gusts may increase to the point that WW issuance is
warranted in the next hour or so.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a cluster of storms ongoing
across portions of southern Louisiana at this time, near a marine
warm front lying west-to-east across southern Louisiana.  Several of
the stronger storms -- including a small segment now approaching
Tangipahoa Parish that has shown bowing tendencies over the past
half hour or so -- have remained slightly elevated, north of the
aforementioned front.  However, though additional heating will be
largely mitigated by increasing/expansive cloud cover, a slow
northward advance of the higher theta-e air will contribute to some
increase in risk for gusty/possibly damaging winds with stronger
storms.  Some signs of organization of convection in
Lafayette/northern Vermilion Parish may represent a portion of this
increasing wind risk.  As such, WW issuance my be needed over the
next hour, for portions of southeastern Louisiana.

..Goss/Thompson.. 04/13/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...

LAT...LON   30428906 30868991 30379221 29739300 29059071 28928914
            29408874 30428906

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Apr 13, 8:28 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAcadia, Allen, Ascension, Assumption, Avoyelles, East Baton Rouge and 11 more2 hr
Apr 13, 12:06 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAscension, Assumption, Iberia, Iberville, Jefferson, Lafourche and 10 more6 hr
Apr 13, 2:44 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCIberia, Jefferson, Lafourche, Plaquemines, St. Mary, Terrebonne and 1 more2 hr
Apr 13, 3:43 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCDe Soto2 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Louisiana, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Mississippi, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.