Mesoscale Discussion 372

Issued

Apr 12, 2021, 3:00 PM CDT (20:00 UTC)

Expired

Apr 12, 2021, 5:00 PM CDT

In force

2 hr

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Concerning

Severe potential...watch likely

Chance of a watch

80%

Counties Brown County, TX, Coleman County, TX, Concho County, TX, Edwards County, TX, Kimble County, TX, Mason County, TX, McCulloch County, TX, Menard County, TX, San Saba County, TX, Schleicher County, TX, Sutton County, TX, Tom Green County, TX, Val Verde County, TX

• Severe Thunderstorm Watch 93Apr 12, 3:50 PM CDT

932 
ACUS11 KWNS 122000
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 122000 
TXZ000-122200-

Mesoscale Discussion 0372
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 PM CDT Mon Apr 12 2021

Areas affected...Edwards Plateau

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 122000Z - 122200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered storms are probable within
the Edwards Plateau this afternoon and early evening. Storms will be
capable of large hail, some greater than 2 inches, and isolated
severe wind gusts. A watch will likely be needed for this activity.

DISCUSSION...Temperatures along and just ahead of the slowing cold
front within the Edwards Plateau have reached the mid to upper 80s
F. A region of cumulus clouds has developed in the Sonora vicinity
where low 60s F dewpoints reside. Forecast guidance has been a bit
slow with warming and moistening of the boundary layer. This has led
to a later initiation in CAM guidance than current observations
would indicate. At present, thunderstorm initiation could occur as
early as 4 PM CDT with increasing likelihood thereafter. Steep
mid-level lapse rates and long, straight hodographs will support
splitting supercells capable of large to very large (2+ inches)
hail. Isolated severe wind gusts may also occur. Given weak
low-level convergence and subtle mid-level height rises later today,
storm coverage should remain widely scattered with the strongest
activity decreasing sharply after sunset.

Additional development of storms is likely within the Sierra del
Burro Mountains. This activity may slide across the U.S. border
later in the afternoon and carry a similar threat for very large
hail and isolated severe gusts. More inhibition will exist ahead of
these storms and how far they can progress into Texas is uncertain.

A watch is likely this afternoon within the Edwards Plateau given
the magnitude of the hail threat.

..Wendt/Thompson.. 04/12/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON   29720178 30800108 31540058 31939978 31969902 31409865
            30309933 29280106 29720178

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.