Mesoscale Discussion 305

Issued

Mar 30, 2021, 6:47 PM CDT (23:47 UTC)

Expired

Mar 30, 2021, 9:15 PM CDT

In force

2 hr

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Concerning

Severe potential...watch unlikely

Chance of a watch

5%

The Shreveport radar (KSHV), 114 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:46 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

538 
ACUS11 KWNS 302347
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302347 
ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-310215-

Mesoscale Discussion 0305
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0647 PM CDT Tue Mar 30 2021

Areas affected...Northeast Texas into the Arklatex Region

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 302347Z - 310215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to
develop along a cold front across northeast TX and may pose a
hail/wind threat as they move into the Arklatex region after sunset.

DISCUSSION...Surface observations from the Southern Plains reveal a
cold front draped from southern MO into northern TX that is
gradually migrating to the east/southeast amid surface pressure
rises across the central Plains. Ahead of this front, ongoing
northward moisture advection has yielded dewpoints in the low to mid
60s across east TX and into LA/southern AR. This is supporting
500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE along the front with slightly higher values to
the east where richer low-level moisture is noted. Visible satellite
imagery shows hints of agitated cumulus along/ahead of the front
underneath high-level cloud cover, suggesting that at least attempts
at convective initiation are likely as the front continues to
migrate east/southeast later this evening. Around 40-50 knots of
effective bulk shear, nearly orthogonal to the front and somewhat
weak forcing for ascent, will help support discrete to semi-discrete
storm modes, but storm coverage remains uncertain. However, any
storm that can become sustained may pose an increasing hail/wind
threat as it moves east into the Arklatex region later this evening
and into the overnight hours. Given the isolated nature of the
threat, a watch is not anticipated.

..Moore/Edwards.. 03/30/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   31749463 31689572 31919648 32329744 32769773 33439739
            34129676 34269533 34369410 34269237 33649216 32829253
            32099319 31869381 31749463

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Arkansas, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Louisiana, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.