Alert archive / Kansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 28

January 25, 202134 counties in Kansas; 21 counties in Nebraska

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jan 25, 2021, 4:58 AM CST for 34 counties in Kansas; 21 counties in Nebraska. It was in force for 6 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jan 25, 2021, 4:58 AM CST (10:58 UTC)
Expired: Jan 25, 2021, 11:00 AM CST
In force: 6 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning: Heavy snow

All 55 counties

Barton County, KS, Clay County, KS, Cloud County, KS, Ellis County, KS, Ellsworth County, KS, Finney County, KS, Gove County, KS, Graham County, KS, Gray County, KS, Hodgeman County, KS, Jewell County, KS, Lane County, KS, Lincoln County, KS, Logan County, KS, Marshall County, KS, Mitchell County, KS, Nemaha County, KS, Ness County, KS, Norton County, KS, Osborne County, KS, Ottawa County, KS, Pawnee County, KS, Phillips County, KS, Republic County, KS, Riley County, KS, Rooks County, KS, Rush County, KS, Russell County, KS, Saline County, KS, Scott County, KS, Sheridan County, KS, Smith County, KS, Trego County, KS, Washington County, KS, Adams County, NE, Clay County, NE, Fillmore County, NE, Franklin County, NE, Gage County, NE, Hall County, NE, Hamilton County, NE, Harlan County, NE, Jefferson County, NE, Johnson County, NE, Kearney County, NE, Lancaster County, NE, Nemaha County, NE, Nuckolls County, NE, Otoe County, NE, Pawnee County, NE, Saline County, NE, Seward County, NE, Thayer County, NE, Webster County, NE, York County, NE

The radar

The Grand Island radar (KUEX), 101 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 10:57 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Dodge City, (KDDC), launched 00:00Z, 11.0 hours before the alert went out and 221 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 963 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 93 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 377 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 464 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

266 
ACUS11 KWNS 251059
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251058 
NEZ000-KSZ000-251700-

Mesoscale Discussion 0028
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0458 AM CST Mon Jan 25 2021

Areas affected...Portions of KS and southern NE

Concerning...Heavy snow 

Valid 251058Z - 251700Z

SUMMARY...Heavy snow, with rates of 1-2 inches per hour, will likely
develop northeastward across Kansas and southern Nebraska this
morning.

DISCUSSION...Strong forcing for ascent and frontogenetic lift in the
low levels, associated with a northeastward-ejecting shortwave
trough, will aid in the development of a heavy snow band across
parts of KS into southern NE this morning. An initial mix of wintry
precipitation across parts of southwestern into central KS is
expected to quickly transition to snow as low/mid-level temperatures
cool with the approaching shortwave trough. Pronounced lift through
the saturated dendritic growth zone will likely favor heavy snow
with rates of at least 1 inch per hour for several hours in a
southwest to northeast oriented band across KS. Higher rates,
perhaps up to 2 inches per hour, appear possible on a localized
basis. This heavy snow band should shift into parts of southern NE
by mid to late morning. A very narrow corridor of freezing
rain/sleet may occur on the southeastern fringe of the band, where a
modest low-level warm nose should remain.

..Gleason.. 01/25/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON   37660004 37430072 38230133 39080121 39970021 40839872
            41169726 40999629 40509581 40059572 39659589 39149680
            37660004

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jan 24, 11:42 PM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Barton, Clark, Edwards, Ellsworth, Ford, Hodgeman and 5 more	5 hr
Jan 25, 10:41 AM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Brown, Clay, Cloud, Doniphan, Jewell, Marshall and 9 more	6 hr
Jan 25, 3:26 PM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Burt, Butler, Cass, Dodge, Douglas, Johnson and 7 more	4 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2021 Mesoscale Discussions in Nebraska, 2021 Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.