Alert archive / Mississippi / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 2016

December 11, 20214 counties in Alabama; 27 counties in Mississippi

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Dec 11, 2021, 3:15 AM CST for 4 counties in Alabama; 27 counties in Mississippi. It was in force for 90 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Dec 11, 2021, 3:15 AM CST (09:15 UTC)
Expired
Dec 11, 2021, 4:45 AM CST
In force
90 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Tornado watch 558
All 31 counties

Colbert County, AL, Franklin County, AL, Lauderdale County, AL, Marion County, AL, Alcorn County, MS, Benton County, MS, Calhoun County, MS, Carroll County, MS, Chickasaw County, MS, Choctaw County, MS, Clay County, MS, Grenada County, MS, Holmes County, MS, Humphreys County, MS, Itawamba County, MS, Lafayette County, MS, Lee County, MS, Leflore County, MS, Monroe County, MS, Montgomery County, MS, Oktibbeha County, MS, Pontotoc County, MS, Prentiss County, MS, Sunflower County, MS, Tallahatchie County, MS, Tippah County, MS, Tishomingo County, MS, Union County, MS, Washington County, MS, Webster County, MS, Yalobusha County, MS

The radar

The Columbus AFB radar (KGWX), 78 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 09:16 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Little Rock, AR (KLZK), launched 00:00Z, 9.3 hours before the alert went out and 112 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Little Rock, AR at 00:00Z on 2021-12-11Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 1725 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Little Rock, AR at 00:00Z on 2021-12-11The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 398 square meters per square second.1939587897117Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
1725 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-13 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
759 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
78 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
398 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
420 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
4.8
Supercell composite
16.2

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

101 
ACUS11 KWNS 110915
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 110915 
ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-111045-

Mesoscale Discussion 2016
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0315 AM CST Sat Dec 11 2021

Areas affected...northern and central MS into northwest AL

Concerning...Tornado Watch 558...

Valid 110915Z - 111045Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 558 continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for a few tornadoes and damaging wind gusts is
increasing across portions of northern/central MS into northwest AL
early this morning.

DISCUSSION...Convection continues to increase in organization and
intensity across portions of northern MS early this morning ahead of
the main band of convection stretching from Middle TN to northern
LA. This convection remains more discrete in a warm sector
characterized by MLCAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg, effective shear 50+
kt and STP values around 2-4. Recent data from the KGWX VWP also
depicts an enlarged, favorably curved low-level hodograph, with very
strong SRH present. As such, the threat for a few tornadoes and
damaging wind gusts is increasing across the MCD area. While
portions of northern MS is within WW 558, this watch expires at 11z
and a new watch will likely need to be issued, and include portions
of central MS into northwest AL.

..Leitman.. 12/11/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON   34079032 34718946 34978895 35058840 35038793 34948761
            34828746 34618748 34188770 33588833 33348886 33048981
            32979032 33019078 33229096 33449091 34079032

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Dec 11, 2:00 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCColbert, Franklin, Lauderdale, Lawrence, Limestone, Madison and 2 more90 min
Dec 11, 3:41 AM CSTTornado WatchSPCColbert, Cullman, DeKalb, Fayette, Franklin, Jackson and 10 more6 hr
Dec 11, 6:15 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCullman, Fayette, Franklin, Jackson, Lamar, Lawrence and 6 more90 min
Dec 11, 7:34 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBibb, Blount, Calhoun, Cherokee, Clay, Cleburne and 8 more86 min
Dec 11, 10:47 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAutauga, Bullock, Butler, Chambers, Clarke, Clay and 15 more118 min
Dec 10, 6:21 PM CSTTornado WatchSPCAlcorn, Benton, Itawamba, Lafayette, Lee, Pontotoc and 4 more10 hr
Dec 10, 9:40 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlcorn, Benton, Coahoma, DeSoto, Lafayette, Marshall and 8 more2 hr
Dec 10, 10:00 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBolivar, Carroll, Claiborne, Hinds, Holmes, Humphreys and 8 more90 min
Dec 10, 10:09 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBenton, Bolivar, Calhoun, Carroll, Coahoma, DeSoto and 14 more96 min
Dec 10, 10:44 PM CSTTornado WatchSPCAlcorn, Benton, Bolivar, Calhoun, Chickasaw, Coahoma and 21 more6 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Mississippi, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Alabama, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.