Alert archive / Virginia / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 1902

October 25, 2021Saint Mary's County, Maryland; 10 counties in North Carolina; 35 counties in Virginia

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Oct 25, 2021, 8:13 PM EDT for Saint Mary's County, Maryland; 10 counties in North Carolina; 35 counties in Virginia. It was in force for 92 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Oct 25, 2021, 8:13 PM EDT (00:13 UTC)
Expired
Oct 25, 2021, 9:45 PM EDT
In force
92 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Severe thunderstorm watch 535
All 46 counties

Saint Mary's County, MD, Alamance County, NC, Caswell County, NC, Durham County, NC, Forsyth County, NC, Granville County, NC, Guilford County, NC, Orange County, NC, Person County, NC, Rockingham County, NC, Vance County, NC, Amelia County, VA, Appomattox County, VA, Brunswick County, VA, Buckingham County, VA, Caroline County, VA, Charlotte County, VA, Chesterfield County, VA, City of Colonial Heights, VA, City of Danville, VA, City of Fredericksburg, VA, City of Hopewell, VA, City of Petersburg, VA, City of Richmond, VA, Cumberland County, VA, Dinwiddie County, VA, Essex County, VA, Fluvanna County, VA, Goochland County, VA, Halifax County, VA, Hanover County, VA, Henrico County, VA, King and Queen County, VA, King George County, VA, King William County, VA, Louisa County, VA, Lunenburg County, VA, Mecklenburg County, VA, New Kent County, VA, Nottoway County, VA, Pittsylvania County, VA, Powhatan County, VA, Prince Edward County, VA, Richmond County, VA, Spotsylvania County, VA, Westmoreland County, VA

The radar

The Raleigh/Durham radar (KRAX), 144 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:17 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Roanoke, VA (KRNK), launched 00:00Z, 0.2 hours before the alert went out and 81 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Roanoke, VA at 00:00Z on 2021-10-26Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Roanoke, VA at 00:00Z on 2021-10-26The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -105 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
857 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
57 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-105 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
-66 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

619 
ACUS11 KWNS 260013
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260013 
MDZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-260145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1902
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0713 PM CDT Mon Oct 25 2021

Areas affected...Middle Atlantic

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 535...

Valid 260013Z - 260145Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 535
continues.

SUMMARY...Squall line will propagate across ww535 this evening.
Damaging winds remain the primary threat.

DISCUSSION...Exit region of mid-level speed max appears to be partly
responsible for maturation of squall line that extends from northern
VA into central NC. Although the linear MCS is not moving that fast,
individual bow-type structures (Buckingham County VA) are surging
east-northeast around 35kt. This activity is currently propagating
across the maximum instability gradient so updraft intensity will
likely be most efficient over the next few hours. Locally damaging
winds remain the primary threat.

..Darrow.. 10/26/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...GSP...

LAT...LON   36008050 38397768 38397584 35997868 36008050

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Virginia, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in North Carolina, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Maryland, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.