Alert archive / Arizona / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 1802

October 5, 2021Apache County, Greenlee County, Arizona; Catron County, New Mexico

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Oct 5, 2021, 5:45 PM MST for Apache County, Greenlee County, Arizona; Catron County, New Mexico. It was in force for 90 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Oct 5, 2021, 5:45 PM MST (00:45 UTC)
Expired: Oct 5, 2021, 7:15 PM MST
In force: 90 min
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning: Severe potential...watch unlikely
Chance of a watch: 5%

Counties Apache County, AZ, Greenlee County, AZ, Catron County, NM

The radar

The Flagstaff radar (KFSX), 168 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:49 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Flgstf/Belemont, AZ (KFGZ), launched 00:00Z, 0.8 hours before the alert went out and 246 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 840 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 37 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 16 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 135 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

277 
ACUS11 KWNS 060045
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 060045 
NMZ000-AZZ000-060215-

Mesoscale Discussion 1802
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0745 PM CDT Tue Oct 05 2021

Areas affected...Far eastern Arizona and far western New Mexico

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 060045Z - 060215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Storms are expected to weaken through the evening into the
early overnight. No downstream watch is expected.

DISCUSSION...Scattered severe wind reports have continued to come in
from the cluster of storms currently across eastern Arizona.
Embedded supercells have been responsible for most of these severe
wind gusts. These storms are moving to the eastern extent of the
instability, and loss of daytime heating should continue to
stabilize the airmass ahead of these storms. Therefore, weakening is
expected. However, slightly longer persistence is possible with the
embedded supercells where internal dynamic pressure perturbations
are able to overcome increasing inhibition. However, the isolated
and low-end threat from this activity should limit any need for a
downstream watch.

..Bentley/Thompson.. 10/06/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...TWC...FGZ...

LAT...LON   35491007 35520925 34180824 32830839 32690908 32660948
            33991008 34601032 35491007

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Oct 5, 5:51 PM MST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Maricopa	54 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Arizona, 2021 Mesoscale Discussions in New Mexico, 2021 Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.