Mesoscale Discussion 177

Issued

Mar 14, 2021, 1:42 PM CDT (18:42 UTC)

Expired

Mar 14, 2021, 3:45 PM CDT

In force

2 hr

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Concerning

Severe potential...watch unlikely

Chance of a watch

5%

Counties Cheyenne County, KS, Decatur County, KS, Norton County, KS, Rawlins County, KS

The Goodland radar (KGLD), 53 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:44 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

053 
ACUS11 KWNS 141842
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141842 
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-142045-

Mesoscale Discussion 0177
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0142 PM CDT Sun Mar 14 2021

Areas affected...Parts of northeastern Colorado into the
northwestern Kansas and adjacent southwestern Nebraska

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 141842Z - 142045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A few thunderstorms may continue to develop and intensify
through late afternoon.  Peak intensities are expected to remain
generally weak, but the more vigorous activity may pose a risk for
mainly small hail and gusty winds.

DISCUSSION...Deepening convective development is underway along the
occluded surface frontal zone, northeast of the surface cyclone
center, across northeastern Colorado into areas near or just south
of the western Kansas/Nebraska border area.  This is being aided by
steepening lapse rates with insolation, beneath the mid-level cold
core (including 500 mb temps aob -25C).  Further intensification
into low-topped thunderstorms appears possible through 21-22Z,
although this will be inhibited, at least to a degree, by relatively
dry lower/mid tropospheric air.  

Mixed-layer CAPE may remain on the order of a couple hundred J/kg or
so, and lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields along the front are in
the process of weakening.  As a result, any sustained thunderstorm
activity seems likely to remain weak.  However, given the steepening
low-level lapse rates rates with continuing insolation, and the
generally cold thermodynamic profiles, small hail may be possible
along with some gusty winds.

It might not be out the question that ambient vertical vorticity
along the boundary, coupled with low-level upward vertical motion
beneath the stronger updrafts, could become supportive of a
"landspout" type tornado.  However, it appears that any such
activity should be fairly isolated, brief and very weak.

..Kerr.. 03/14/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GLD...BOU...

LAT...LON   39700290 40020204 40100124 40070067 39759978 39549984
            39710084 39770131 39400240 39700290

Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.