Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 13

January 6, 2021Brazoria County, Chambers County, Galveston County, Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jan 6, 2021, 5:09 PM CST for Brazoria County, Chambers County, Galveston County, Texas. It was in force for 96 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jan 6, 2021, 5:09 PM CST (23:09 UTC)
Expired
Jan 6, 2021, 6:45 PM CST
In force
96 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Severe thunderstorm watch 2

Counties Brazoria County, TX, Chambers County, TX, Galveston County, TX

The radar

The Houston radar (KHGX), 22 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:11 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Lake Charles Mun, LA (KLCH), launched 12:00Z, 11.2 hours before the alert went out and 188 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Lake Charles Mun, LA at 12:00Z on 2021-01-06Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Lake Charles Mun, LA at 12:00Z on 2021-01-06The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 119 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
2326 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
39 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
119 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
157 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

836 
ACUS11 KWNS 062310
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 062309 
LAZ000-TXZ000-070045-

Mesoscale Discussion 0013
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0509 PM CST Wed Jan 06 2021

Areas affected...Parts of upper Texas and southwest Louisiana
coastal areas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 2...

Valid 062309Z - 070045Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 2 continues.

SUMMARY...A risk for damaging wind gusts and/or an isolated tornado
remain possible, mainly across far southern and southeastern
portions of the Houston area, near/northwest through north of
Galveston through 6-7 PM CST.

DISCUSSION...Ongoing squall line with embedded supercell structures
appears largely supported by mid-level forcing for ascent, ahead of
the vigorous short wave trough now pivoting east of the central
Texas Interstate 35 corridor toward the Sabine River/Piney Woods. 
This is contributing to lift through warm capping layers, but, north
of middle Texas coastal areas, boundary-layer moisture return has
only been sufficient for very weak mixed-layer CAPE across and
northeast of the Greater Houston Metropolitan area.

Based on latest observational data, potential for substantive
further intensification of the evolving convective system appears
minimal as activity progresses across the coast into coastal waters
between now and 00-01Z.  The primary severe weather potential
probably will remain focused with the supercell/bowing segment in
radar reflectivities now spreading south of Houston toward coastal
areas near/north of Galveston.  Low-level hodographs across this
region have been moderately large and clockwise curved, and could
still contribute to a risk for locally damaging wind gusts and/or an
isolated tornado or two.

..Kerr.. 01/06/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...

LAT...LON   29219550 29449516 29889464 29849421 29759369 29119452
            28769517 28799591 29219550

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jan 6, 11:56 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBastrop, Brazos, Burleson, Falls, Fayette, Grimes and 8 more2 hr
Jan 6, 12:59 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAustin, Bastrop, Brazoria, Brazos, Burleson, Chambers and 24 more7 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.