Alert archive / Georgia / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 1015
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 19, 2021, 4:33 PM EDT for 21 counties in Georgia. It was in force for 87 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jun 19, 2021, 4:33 PM EDT (20:33 UTC)
- Expired
- Jun 19, 2021, 6:00 PM EDT
- In force
- 87 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Tornado watch 285
All 21 counties
Ben Hill County, GA, Clay County, GA, Coffee County, GA, Crisp County, GA, Dodge County, GA, Dooly County, GA, Dougherty County, GA, Irwin County, GA, Lee County, GA, Pulaski County, GA, Quitman County, GA, Randolph County, GA, Stewart County, GA, Sumter County, GA, Telfair County, GA, Terrell County, GA, Turner County, GA, Webster County, GA, Wheeler County, GA, Wilcox County, GA, Worth County, GA
The radar
The Robins AFB radar (KJGX), 114 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:34 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Peachtre/Fal Fld, GA (KFFC), launched 12:00Z, 8.6 hours before the alert went out and 161 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 117 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -55 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1061 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 19 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -13 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 11 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
633 ACUS11 KWNS 192034 SWOMCD SPC MCD 192033 GAZ000-ALZ000-192200- Mesoscale Discussion 1015 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0333 PM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021 Areas affected...far southeast AL...southwest into south-central GA Concerning...Tornado Watch 285... Valid 192033Z - 192200Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 285 continues. SUMMARY...The most favorable corridor for a tornado will focus along the maritime warm front/differential heating zone draped from west to east across southern GA. An additional tornado watch may be considered towards the expiration time of tornado watch 285 (8pm EDT) or if storms begin to exhibit tornadic supercell potential to the east of tornado watch 285. DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms in a mix of discrete cells and bands of deep convection continue to slowly shift to the northeast across southeast AL/southwest GA. A maritime warm front/differential heating zone is stationary and draped from west to east across southeast AL eastward into south-central GA. As stronger updrafts interact with this vorticity rich zone, a greater probability for low-level mesocyclone development and a tornado risk has been apparent so far this afternoon. Expecting the relationship of an increased threat for storm-scale rotation and the differential heating zone to continue through the remainder of the afternoon and perhaps into the early evening. As the boundary layer slowly cools, storm coverage will likely decrease this evening with the overall conditional tornado risk to spatially contract and possibly become quite limited by mid evening. ..Smith.. 06/19/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX... LAT...LON 32098537 32338390 32108260 31498271 31568528 32098537
SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 19, 10:33 AM EDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Calhoun, Chattahoochee, Clay, Early, Harris, Macon and 13 more | 9 hr |
| Jun 19, 2:13 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Calhoun, Clay, Early, Randolph | 62 min |
| Jun 19, 7:22 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Baker, Calhoun, Chattahoochee, Clay, Decatur, Dougherty and 17 more | 83 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Georgia, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.