Severe Thunderstorm Warning 162, NWS San Angelo, TX

254 
WWUS54 KSJT 110847
SVSSJT

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
347 AM CDT Sun Jul 11 2021

TXC447-110915-
/O.CON.KSJT.SV.W.0162.000000T0000Z-210711T0915Z/
Throckmorton TX-
347 AM CDT Sun Jul 11 2021

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 AM CDT
FOR THROCKMORTON COUNTY...

At 346 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Throckmorton,
moving south at 35 mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect considerable tree damage. Damage is likely to mobile 
         homes, roofs, and outbuildings.

This severe thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
Throckmorton County, including the following locations... Lusk, Us-
183 Near The Throckmorton-Baylor County Line, The Intersection Of Us-
183 And Us-283, The Intersection Of Us-
283 And Ranch Road 209 and The Intersection Of Us-
380 And Highway 222.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3296 9896 3296 9947 3340 9947 3340 9896
TIME...MOT...LOC 0846Z 001DEG 31KT 3315 9920 

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

mkd

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
203 AM CDT Sun Jul 11 2021

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 202 AM CDT Sun Jul 11 2021

Line of strong to severe showers and thunderstorms south of the
Red River Valley at 130 AM will be moving into Haskell and
Throckmorton around 330 AM...and the I-20 corridor including
Abilene between 530 and 630 AM. While the line of storms is
expected to weaken, some storms may still be capable of damaging
winds to 60 mph and penny size hail through daybreak.

While the short range models indicate the storms diminishing early
this morning, additional storm development is possible by mid
afternoon with additional heating, and as a weak cold front moves
into the Concho Valley and Heartland and dissipates. Surface based
CAPES increase to 1500-2000 J/KG and MUCAPES 2000-2800 J/KG this
afternoon, so there should enough instability for severe storms. SPC
has a marginal risk of severe storms across much of West Central
Texas north of I-10, with a slight risk over Callahan, Runnels,
Coleman, Brown Counties today and tonight.

Highs will likely be a couple degrees cooler due to clouds and
storms, but still warm in the 90 to 93 degree range. Lows tonight
will be near 70.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 138 AM CDT Sun Jul 11 2021

Anything left from the frontal boundary that is expected to move
into central Texas on Sunday should wash out for Monday. But, any
residual outflows from earlier precipitation may provide a focus
for a few storms across the Concho Valley and I-10 corridor on
Monday, mainly in the afternoon. At this point, storm coverage
should be fairly low and will not likely be severe. Otherwise,
highs should reach the upper 80s to around 90 areawide. Stratus
and convective debris may hold down high temperatures in a few
places as well.

As we get into Tuesday and beyond, we'll start to see a slight
pattern change set up.  The upper ridge out west will continue to
wobble around and fluctuate, while otherwise staying centered over
the Desert Southwest.  Global models show a series of 500mb
shortwave troughs traversing the northern and central US through
much of the week. Despite some instability during this time period,
there is no real good focus for convection each day, save for an
isolated afternoon pop-up shower.  As a result, skies will gradually
be sunnier with fewer clouds and rain chances, along with steady
south flow at the surface.  This should lead to high temperatures
reaching closer to the mid 90s, which is right around our normal for
mid July. Over the weekend, global models suggest a stronger
shortwave bringing a cold front down into the southern Plains, which
may introduce some rain chances, but this feature will be monitored
as the week progresses.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1248 AM CDT Sun Jul 11 2021

Line of showers and thunderstorms along the Red River at 6Z may
affect KABI towards or after 11Z. There may a few storms mid to
late morning to affect KSJT and KBBD. Additional convection may
pop up mid afternoon across the terminals. Very heavy rainfall may
lower visibilities down to less than 3 miles at times during
storms. MVFR stratus otherwise will move north from the Hill
Country and TransPecos, affecting terminals except KABI through
mid morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 91  69  88  71 /  50  30  30   0
San Angelo 	 93  70  91  70 /  30  30  20   0
Junction 	 93  71  91  69 /  20  20  10   0
Brownwood 	 93  70  89  71 /  50  30  30   0
Sweetwater 	 89  69  89  70 /  50  30  20   0
Ozona      	 90  70  91  69 /  20  20   5   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....SK
AVIATION...04

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
157 PM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-111900-
Fisher-Nolan-Sterling-Coke-Runnels-Irion-Tom Green-Concho-
Crockett-Schleicher-Sutton-Haskell-Throckmorton-Jones-Shackelford-
Taylor-Callahan-Coleman-Brown-McCulloch-San Saba-Menard-Kimble-
Mason-
157 PM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of west central
Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Thunderstorms will be possible across the Big Country, generally
north of Interstate 20, late tonight ahead of a weak cold front.
A few of the storms may produce some gusty winds and hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Thunderstorms will be possible mainly north of Interstate 10
Sunday into Sunday night. Locally heavy rainfall will be the main
threat, although the strongest storms may contain some gusty winds
and hail.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
237 AM CDT Sun Jul 11 2021

TXZ098-099-110830-
Haskell TX-Throckmorton TX-
237 AM CDT Sun Jul 11 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HASKELL AND THROCKMORTON COUNTIES
UNTIL 330 AM CDT...

At 232 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a thunderstorm outflow
boundary moving into northeast Throckmorton country. This outflow is
moving southwest at 35 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this outflow. The
winds may affect Throckmorton around 3 AM.

Locations impacted include...
Haskell, Throckmorton, Rule, Rochester, Woodson, Weinert, O'brien,
Irby, Elbert, Millers Creek Reservoir.

LAT...LON 3339 9895 3297 9895 3318 9999 3340 9998
TIME...MOT...LOC 0732Z 033DEG 29KT 3339 9913

mkd

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
329 AM CDT Sun Jul 11 2021

TXZ098-099-110915-
Haskell TX-Throckmorton TX-
329 AM CDT Sun Jul 11 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HASKELL AND THROCKMORTON COUNTIES
UNTIL 415 AM CDT...

At 328 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorms 12
miles north of Throckmorton...along the northern Throckmorton county
line...moving south at 30 mph.

Pea size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Haskell, Stamford, Throckmorton, Rule, Rochester, Woodson, Weinert,
O'brien, Irby, Paint Creek, Elbert, Millers Creek Reservoir, Lake
Stamford Marina.

LAT...LON 3297 9895 3297 9976 3328 9999 3339 9999
      3340 9896
TIME...MOT...LOC 0828Z 350DEG 27KT 3335 9919

mkd