Severe Thunderstorm Warning 44, NWS Shreveport, LA

926 
WWUS54 KSHV 071841
SVSSHV

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
141 PM CDT Wed Apr 7 2021

TXC405-071851-
/O.CAN.KSHV.SV.W.0044.000000T0000Z-210407T1900Z/
San Augustine TX-
141 PM CDT Wed Apr 7 2021

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN SAN AUGUSTINE
COUNTY IS CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for northwestern
Louisiana...and eastern Texas.

LAT...LON 3152 9383 3179 9399 3197 9359 3169 9343
TIME...MOT...LOC 1841Z 243DEG 50KT 3172 9379 

$$

LAC031-085-TXC403-419-071900-
/O.CON.KSHV.SV.W.0044.000000T0000Z-210407T1900Z/
De Soto LA-Sabine LA-Shelby TX-Sabine TX-
141 PM CDT Wed Apr 7 2021

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 PM CDT
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL DE SOTO AND NORTHWESTERN SABINE PARISHES...
SOUTHEASTERN SHELBY AND NORTH CENTRAL SABINE COUNTIES...

At 141 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 7 miles southwest of
Converse, or 22 miles south of Mansfield, moving northeast at 60 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Zwolle, Converse, Oak Grove, Pleasant Hill, Huxley, Noble, Pelican,
Toledo Bend Reservoir North and Belmont.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for northwestern
Louisiana...and eastern Texas.

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3152 9383 3179 9399 3197 9359 3169 9343
TIME...MOT...LOC 1841Z 243DEG 50KT 3172 9379 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

44

668 
WWUS54 KSHV 071851
SVSSHV

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
151 PM CDT Wed Apr 7 2021

LAC031-085-TXC403-419-071901-
/O.EXP.KSHV.SV.W.0044.000000T0000Z-210407T1900Z/
De Soto LA-Sabine LA-Shelby TX-Sabine TX-
151 PM CDT Wed Apr 7 2021

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL DE SOTO AND
NORTHWESTERN SABINE PARISHES...SOUTHEASTERN SHELBY AND NORTH CENTRAL
SABINE COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 200 PM CDT...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for northwestern
Louisiana...and eastern Texas.

LAT...LON 3152 9383 3179 9399 3197 9359 3169 9343
TIME...MOT...LOC 1851Z 243DEG 50KT 3177 9367 

$$

44

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1251 PM CDT Wed Apr 7 2021

.UPDATE.../This Afternoon/

Quick update to issue Tornado Watch 75. KSHV 18Z sounding shows
this morning's cap has all but been flattened, indicating the
anticipated increase in instability as the cold front approaches.
As such, severe storms becoming more likely to develop as we move
into the aftn/evening hours. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1212 PM CDT Wed Apr 7 2021/

AVIATION...

Widespread MVFR conditions continue across the TAF sites at this
time. A cold front, that is knocking on our CWA border, will
bring a line of showers and thunderstorms to the area by this
afternoon. Have mention of VCTS at all terminals with TEMPO
thunderstorms at all sites. Some of the storms could be strong to
severe within the line, with high winds, hail, and even tornadoes
possible. There will also be a drop to IFR/LIFR as the
thunderstorms pass through the TAF sites. Winds will diminish in
wake of the front and thunderstorms, along with clearing skies.
This will result in VFR conditions overnight, prevailing through
the end of the TAF period. /20/

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1147 AM CDT Wed Apr 7 2021/

UPDATE...

A line of showers have developed along a pre-frontal trough
moving across the region this morning. However, this is only the
start of a very busy short-term period. The Storm Prediction
Center has expanded an Enhanced Risk to include all of North
Louisiana and our adjacent South Arkansas counties along and south
of the Interstate 30 corridor.

At 1030 AM, a closed upper trough was located across Western
Kansas, with a cold front trailing along the I-35 corridor of
Oklahoma and Texas. As this trough and associated cold front
continues to move eastward today, a line of showers and
thunderstorms will initially develop across East Texas and
adjacent SE Oklahoma early this afternoon, and eventually move
across the remainder of the region. The 12z sounding this morning
had a strong cap in place, but large scale forcing with the
frontal boundary should be enough for convection to develop. Ahead
of the front, the synoptic situation is setting up very favorable
for all modes of strong to severe storms. Good instability should
be in place, as MLCape will climb to near 1500 J/kg along with
dewpoints in the mid 60s areawide. Lapse rates are also
favorable, with mid and low-level rates approaching 7 C/km along
with effective bulk shear near 50 kts. A QLCS event will likely
evolve with this set-up, resulting in possible severe wind gusts
in bowing features along the squall line. And with sfc-1km shear
forecasted to be greater than 20 kts along with Effective SRH
values around 200 m2/s2, a tornado or two will be very possible.
Hail is also in play, with wet bulb zero heights between 8-10 kft.

Other than a few minor adjustments to POPs to account for current
trends, the remainder of the forecast remains on track.  /20/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  53  81  60 /  90  10  10  20
MLU  78  56  81  60 /  60  70   0  20
DEQ  74  47  78  52 /  60   0   0  20
TXK  74  52  78  58 /  80   0   0  20
ELD  74  50  79  52 /  80  20   0  20
TYR  76  52  81  62 /  60   0  10  20
GGG  74  50  80  59 /  80   0  10  20
LFK  75  54  83  63 /  80  20  10  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

12/20

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
324 AM CDT Wed Apr 7 2021

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-081200-
Sevier-Howard-Little River-Hempstead-Nevada-Miller-Lafayette-
Columbia-Union-Caddo-Bossier-Webster-Claiborne-Lincoln-De Soto-
Red River-Bienville-Jackson-Ouachita-Sabine-Natchitoches-Winn-
Grant-Caldwell-La Salle-McCurtain-Bowie-Franklin-Titus-Camp-
Morris-Cass-Wood-Upshur-Marion-Smith-Gregg-Harrison-Cherokee-Rusk-
Panola-Nacogdoches-Shelby-Angelina-San Augustine-
324 AM CDT Wed Apr 7 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
Arkansas, southwest Arkansas, north central Louisiana, northwest
Louisiana, southeast Oklahoma, east Texas and northeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

Strong to severe thunderstorms will become likely later today
through this evening across at least the eastern half of the Four
State Region which would include all of Southern Arkansas and all
of Northern Louisiana. A more conditional threat exists across
Southeast Oklahoma and Northeast Texas. Conditions will be
conducive for damaging wind gusts, large hail and isolated
tornadoes this afternoon through this evening where severe
thunderstorms develop. The severe weather threat should end across
Northeast Louisiana after midnight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday...

After a relatively quiet day on Thursday, more severe
thunderstorms are back in the forecast for Friday Afternoon
through Friday Evening once again. Look for the possibility of
very large hail, damaging thunderstorm wind gusts and isolated
tornadoes once again during this time frame along and ahead of a
cold front that should move through the region late Friday Night
into early Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of emergency management personnel...amateur radio
operators...and storm spotters will likely be needed this
afternoon into this evening. Please relay any information about
observed severe weather to the NWS while following all local,
state, and CDC guidelines.

13