River Flood Warning 81, NWS Shreveport, LA

443 
WGUS84 KSHV 130214
FLSSHV

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
914 PM CDT Wed May 12 2021

...The Flood Warning continues for the following lake in Louisiana...

  Cross Bayou At Cross Lake affecting Caddo Parish.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive cars through flooded areas.
Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

A Flood Warning means that flooding is imminent or occurring. All 
interested parties should take necessary precautions immediately.

&&

For more hydrologic information, copy and paste the following website
address into your favorite web browser URL bar:
water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=shv


LAC017-140200-
/O.CON.KSHV.FL.W.0081.000000T0000Z-210514T0200Z/
/CRLL1.1.ER.210512T1245Z.210513T0045Z.210513T0800Z.NO/
914 PM CDT Wed May 12 2021

...The Flood Warning remains in effect...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Cross Bayou At Cross Lake.
* Until Thursday evening.
* At 8:30 PM CDT Wednesday the pool stage was 173.5 feet.
* Flood pool stage is 173 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Recent Activity...The maximum pool stage in the 24 hours ending at 
  8:30 PM CDT Wednesday was 173.5 feet.
* Forecast...Cross Lake is expected to fall below flood pool stage 
  late tonight and continue falling to 172.8 feet tomorrow morning.


&&

LAT...LON 3254 9393 3254 9386 3251 9380 3249 9381
      3250 9393

$$

16

782 
WGUS84 KSHV 131011
FLSSHV

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
511 AM CDT Thu May 13 2021

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following lake in 
Louisiana...

  Cross Bayou At Cross Lake affecting Caddo Parish.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive cars through flooded areas.
Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

A Flood Warning means that flooding is imminent or occurring. All 
interested parties should take necessary precautions immediately.

&&

For more hydrologic information, copy and paste the following website
address into your favorite web browser URL bar:
water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=shv


LAC017-141145-
/O.EXT.KSHV.FL.W.0081.000000T0000Z-210514T1800Z/
/CRLL1.1.ER.210512T1245Z.210513T0045Z.210514T0000Z.NO/
511 AM CDT Thu May 13 2021

...The Flood Warning is now in effect until early tomorrow 
afternoon...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Cross Bayou At Cross Lake.
* Until Friday afternoon.
* At 4:30 AM CDT Thursday the pool stage was 173.4 feet.
* Flood pool stage is 173 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Recent Activity...The maximum lake stage in the 24 hours ending at 
  4:30 AM CDT Thursday was 173.5 feet.
* Forecast...The lake is expected to fall below flood pool stage by 
  late this Thursday evening and continue falling to 172.8 feet by 
  Friday morning.


&&

LAT...LON 3254 9393 3254 9386 3251 9380 3249 9381
      3250 9393

$$

08

755 
WGUS84 KSHV 140133
FLSSHV

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
833 PM CDT Thu May 13 2021

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Louisiana...

  Cross Bayou At Cross Lake affecting Caddo Parish.

LAC017-140245-
/O.CAN.KSHV.FL.W.0081.000000T0000Z-210514T0133Z/
/CRLL1.1.ER.210512T1245Z.210513T0045Z.210514T0000Z.NO/
833 PM CDT Thu May 13 2021

...The Flood Warning for the Cross Bayou At Cross Lake has been 
cancelled...

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the Cross Bayou At Cross Lake.
* At 7:30 PM CDT Thursday the stage was just below 173 feet.
* Flood stage is 173 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to remain steady below flood 
  stage near 172.8 feet.


&&

LAT...LON 3254 9393 3254 9386 3251 9380 3249 9381
      3250 9393

$$

19

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
626 AM CDT Wed May 12 2021

.AVIATION...

Very little change for the 12z TAF package. Still seeing mostly
showers across our southeast airspace early this morning. Handled
this with VCSH across most terminal sites for this morning only.
Ceilings are mostly IFR presently with some LIFR mixed in and we
should see those ceilings improve to MVFR categories by late
morning into the afternoon hours and perhaps low VFR ceilings by
late afternoon into the overnight hours. Ceilings may be slow to
scatter out if the latest trends of the NAM are to be believed and
therefore with the 12z TAF package, kept the cloud cover in
through the 24hr TAF period.

Look for NNE to NE winds today with sustained winds near or just
below 10kts before decoupling occurs after sunset this evening.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 304 AM CDT Wed May 12 2021/

SHORT TERM.../Today through Thursday/

Still dealing with some scattered showers and an occasional
thunderstorm across Deep East Texas this morning into portions of
West Central Louisiana and some patchy drizzle elsewhere but
coverage will continue to be scattered at best this morning as not
depicting any strong perturbations in basically west to east
zonal flow aloft. That in combination with the passage of the
850mb trough axis this morning through much of our region and
thus, we just will not have much in the way of low level forcing
either as has been the case the last several days. Kept high end
chance pops going through the noon hour across our southeast zones
but precipitation amounts do not justify an extension or even a
continuation of the current Flash Flood Watch so have cancelled
this hazard early with this forecast package. Precipitation should
have for the most part exited most of our region by late this
afternoon but did hold onto slight chance pops for our extreme
southeast parishes, ending by sunset. Stayed pretty close to NBM
MOS output for afternoon high temperatures today as we will
continue seeing rather cool conditions for the second week of May
given the northeast winds and abundant cloud cover.

As we transition into tonight, we should lose that cloud cover
across much of our region from north to south and while the sfc
ridge axis will remain to our northwest overnight meaning we will
keep some wind in place, believe we should cool down to near or
just below NBM temperatures tonight with lows ranging in the
middle 40s across our northern most zones to the middle 50s
across our south.

Sfc ridging remains to our northwest during the day Thursday but
plentiful sun should counteract northeasterly winds at the
surface, allowing for a descent warmup but still below normal
temperatures. Afternoon highs on Thursday will range mostly in the
lower to middle 70s.

13

LONG TERM.../Thursday Night through Wednesday/

By Thursday night, the region will continue to be influenced by NW
flow. As talked about in previous discussions, upper level ridging
to the west will usher in that dry air, which will keep clouds and
rainfall to a minimum. This ridging will continue into the weekend,
allowing for temperatures to rebound to a more seasonal feel by
Sunday. Unfortunately, we won't remain dry during this long-term,
and it's maybe not too early to be talking about more widespread
rain into next workweek. All of the "Big three" (Euro/GFS/Canadian)
have our upper level ridge breaking down in some capacity, allowing
for a series of shortwave disturbances to move through the area.

This is where the guidance starts to split. The GFS in particular is
more aggressive with the rainfall, bringing multiple MCS's into the
region by the middle of next workweek. The Euro and Canadian on the
other hand depict a series of weaker shortwaves moving through the
area. While there would still be rain involved with these solutions,
they wouldn't be as heavy as they would be with the GFS. All of this
to say that an extended period of rain looks possible to start the
next workweek, with a non-zero chance chance that some of this rain
is moderate to heavy once again.

/44/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  64  51  74  52 /  30  10   0   0
MLU  64  52  73  51 /  50  10   0   0
DEQ  65  46  74  48 /  10  10   0   0
TXK  64  49  73  51 /  20  10   0   0
ELD  62  47  73  47 /  30  10   0   0
TYR  64  51  74  54 /  20  10   0   0
GGG  65  50  73  51 /  30  10   0   0
LFK  69  56  75  53 /  40  10   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

13/13/44

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
327 AM CDT Wed May 12 2021

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-130830-
Sevier-Howard-Little River-Hempstead-Nevada-Miller-Lafayette-
Columbia-Union-Caddo-Bossier-Webster-Claiborne-Lincoln-De Soto-
Red River-Bienville-Jackson-Ouachita-Sabine-Natchitoches-Winn-
Grant-Caldwell-La Salle-McCurtain-Bowie-Franklin-Titus-Camp-
Morris-Cass-Wood-Upshur-Marion-Smith-Gregg-Harrison-Cherokee-Rusk-
Panola-Nacogdoches-Shelby-Angelina-San Augustine-
327 AM CDT Wed May 12 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
Arkansas, southwest Arkansas, north central Louisiana, northwest
Louisiana, southeast Oklahoma, east Texas and northeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday...

Rain and thunderstorm chances will return to start the next
workweek. At this time, it appears some of this rain my again be
moderate to heavy at times. While exact values remain to be seen,
isolated flash flooding will once again be possible with this
activity.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of emergency management personnel...amateur radio
operators...and storm spotters will not be be needed for. Please
relay any information about observed severe weather to the NWS
while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines.

44