River Flood Warning 15, NWS Shreveport, LA

784 
WGUS84 KSHV 231354
FLSSHV

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
754 AM CST Sat Jan 23 2021

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in Texas...

  Neches River Near Diboll affecting Tyler, Houston, Angelina, Polk 
  and Trinity Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive cars through flooded areas.
Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

A Flood Warning means that flooding is imminent or occurring. All 
interested parties should take necessary precautions immediately.

For more hydrologic information, copy and paste the following website
address into your favorite web browser URL bar:
water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=shv


TXC005-225-373-455-457-241400-
/O.EXT.KSHV.FL.W.0015.000000T0000Z-210125T1200Z/
/DIBT2.1.ER.210122T0800Z.210123T1800Z.210124T1800Z.NO/
754 AM CST Sat Jan 23 2021

...The Flood Warning is now in effect until Monday morning...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Neches River Near Diboll.
* Until Monday morning.
* At 6:15 AM CST Saturday the stage was 12.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river is expected to remain near 12.1 feet this 
  afternoon. It will then fall below flood stage early tomorrow 
  afternoon.
* Impact...At 12.0 feet, Minor lowland flooding occurs.  Expect 
  flooded boat ramps and trails.


&&

LAT...LON 3138 9492 3107 9455 3103 9459 3111 9485
      3136 9500

$$

25

586 
WGUS84 KSHV 240056
FLSSHV

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
656 PM CST Sat Jan 23 2021

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in Texas...

  Neches River Near Diboll affecting Tyler, Houston, Angelina, Polk 
  and Trinity Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive cars through flooded areas.
Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

A Flood Warning means that flooding is imminent or occurring. All 
interested parties should take necessary precautions immediately.

For more hydrologic information, copy and paste the following website
address into your favorite web browser URL bar:
water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=shv


TXC005-225-373-455-457-250100-
/O.EXT.KSHV.FL.W.0015.000000T0000Z-210125T1800Z/
/DIBT2.1.ER.210122T0800Z.210124T0600Z.210125T0000Z.NO/
656 PM CST Sat Jan 23 2021

...The Flood Warning is now in effect until early Monday afternoon...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Neches River Near Diboll.
* Until Monday afternoon.
* At 6:15 PM CST Saturday the stage was 12.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours ending 
  at 6:15 PM CST Saturday was 12.1 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 12.1 feet 
  just after midnight tonight. It will then fall below flood stage 
  tomorrow evening.
* Impact...At 12.0 feet, Minor lowland flooding occurs.  Expect 
  flooded boat ramps and trails.


&&

LAT...LON 3138 9492 3107 9455 3103 9459 3111 9485
      3136 9500

$$

465 
WGUS84 KSHV 241432
FLSSHV

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
832 AM CST Sun Jan 24 2021

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in Texas...

  Neches River Near Diboll affecting Tyler, Houston, Angelina, Polk 
  and Trinity Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive cars through flooded areas.
Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

A Flood Warning means that flooding is imminent or occurring. All 
interested parties should take necessary precautions immediately.

For more hydrologic information, copy and paste the following website
address into your favorite web browser URL bar:
water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=shv


TXC005-225-373-455-457-251445-
/O.EXT.KSHV.FL.W.0015.000000T0000Z-210126T0000Z/
/DIBT2.1.ER.210122T0800Z.210123T1730Z.210125T0600Z.NO/
832 AM CST Sun Jan 24 2021

...The Flood Warning is now in effect until tomorrow evening...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Neches River Near Diboll.
* Until Monday evening.
* At 8:15 AM CST Sunday the stage was 12.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage just 
  after midnight tonight and continue falling to 10.3 feet Friday 
  morning.
* Impact...At 12.0 feet, Minor lowland flooding occurs.  Expect 
  flooded boat ramps and trails.


&&

LAT...LON 3138 9492 3107 9455 3103 9459 3111 9485
      3136 9500

$$

25

112 
WGUS84 KSHV 251331
FLSSHV

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
731 AM CST Mon Jan 25 2021

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Texas...

  Neches River Near Diboll affecting Tyler, Houston, Angelina, Polk 
  and Trinity Counties.

TXC005-225-373-455-457-251445-
/O.CAN.KSHV.FL.W.0015.000000T0000Z-210125T1331Z/
/DIBT2.1.ER.700119T1535Z.700119T1537Z.700119T1539Z.NO/
731 AM CST Mon Jan 25 2021

...The Flood Warning for the Neches River Near Diboll has been 
cancelled...

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the Neches River Near Diboll.
* At 6:15 AM CST Monday the stage was 12.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to fall to 10.1 feet Friday 
  evening.


&&

LAT...LON 3138 9492 3107 9455 3103 9459 3111 9485
      3136 9500

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
641 AM CST Fri Jan 22 2021

.UPDATE...

Vsbys beginning to slowly improve north of the I-20 Corridor in NE
TX so trimmed the northern third of NE TX out of the Dense Fog
Advisory, keeping it for the remainder of the region through 10 am
this morning. No other changes to the forecast were necessary
attm.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 438 AM CST Fri Jan 22 2021/

AVIATION...

Tricky TAF package this morning with dense fog having set in at
the TYR/GGG/SHV and ELD terminals. Precipitation is moving out for
the most part but with a stalled frontal boundary across near the
LFK terminal this morning, may be a while before we see these
VSBYS and VV002 ceilings lift. Will prevail VLIFR VSBYS and LIFR
to VLIFR through 16z and will show a gradual improvement to MVFR
VSBYS and IFR ceilings by 18z at these terminal locations. MVFR
ceilings by this afternoon may be a stretch across most locations
but have more confidence in the TXK and maybe the ELD terminals
seeing these conditions but did trend the afternoon ceilings
toward low MVFR categories towards the afternoon hours. Kept MVFR
ceilings prevailing overnight areawide except for the TXK/ELD
terminals where we should see VFR ceilings but with ceilings near
8-10kft.

Look for NE to ENE winds today near or less than 10kts with those
conditions prevailing overnight as well.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 406 AM CST Fri Jan 22 2021/

SHORT TERM.../Today through Saturday/

As the large area of rain has moved into our southeast zones this
morning, ending across the west and southwest, areas of dense fog
has set in mainly south of the Red River in Northeast Texas and
extreme Northwest Louisiana early this morning. This area is
generally north of a stalled frontal boundary which is difficult
to pick out but appears to be near a Waco and Lufkin, Texas to
near or just south of Alexandria, Louisiana line. For this reason,
have posted much of this area in a Dense Fog Advisory through 16z
this morning and we may be able to cancel this early for our
extreme northern counties in NE TX but may need to expand the
advisory further south and east if the patchy dense fog becomes
more widespread across more of Deep East Texas and Northwest
Louisiana. Slightly drier air should backdoor its way into our
region from the north today which should help with our dense fog
impacts later this morning.

Otherwise, kept high chance pops across our southeast half for
this morning but the general trend is for the precipitation to
pull out of our region to the east later this morning. Kept slight
chance pops near and south of the I-20 Corridor as some high res
solutions suggest that very light precipitation could redevelop,
especially out west late this afternoon on the back edge of some
PVA moving our way from Central Texas. Kept the forecast dry
tonight through Saturday but would not be surprised to see some
very light precip develop near and south of the I-20 Corridor as
there does appear to be some weak isentropic forcing that could
result in limited precip coverage across this region.

Concerning temperatures, stayed on the cooler side of guidance
today and tonight given the post frontal conditions areawide,
cloud cover and northeast winds. Clouds will stay with us on
Saturday as well and east to northeast winds will not allow for
much warmup.

Thanks for the coordination this morning FWD...prelims to
follow...13

LONG TERM.../Saturday night through Thursday night/

High pressure on the surface will be moving away from our area as
the easterly winds veer to SE well before daybreak allowing for good
return of Gulf moisture along with the warm front arriving during
the overnight hours. Now there will still be some chilly readings
around 40 degrees in our far northern areas, but much warmer lower
to mid 50s will be widespread in areas south of I-20. We will see
scattered showers expanding northward overnight and into all of
Sunday. Isolated thunderstorms by noon with the warm front moving to
our north with lower to mid 60s north and lower 70s south. We will
see brisk southerly winds persist into nightfall and sustain
overnight with lows widely varied again with low to mid 50s north
and lower 60s south. The warm air advection continues and will push
high temperatures into the 60s to lower 70s.

By Sunday night into Monday models agree on timing of the big push
ahead of the next cold front which will boost the ongoing
convection. The day 3 outlook from the SPC is general for now from
the plains down to our I-30 corridor. Of course, this is a deepening
system with a surface low developing in the OK/TX Red River valley
that will move into W AR by daybreak. Our winds will be shifting a
bit more now with a westerly flow driving the back edge of rainfall
quickly from W to E by just about lunchtime. Drier, but not cooler
yet with mid to upper 60s north and lower 70 south on Monday. During
the overnight the winds veer to NW with the colder temps spreading
back across the region as skies clear. Tuesday will see mid to upper
30s north and low to mid 40s south to start the day. However, highs
on Tuesday will recover well with lots of sunshine.

We will continue with dry weather for just a short time with another
short wave in the pattern over KN. Models gather up some light QPF
mainly late Wednesday as this system zips on by in the flow. The GFS
has a little better coverage while the ECMWF is split into two areas
of QPF that fail to bridge over our area. So at most just a little
more rain which is good considering the previous wet storm. Our
temps look to be fairly average for late January. /24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  57  43  55  49 /  30  10  10  50
MLU  57  41  55  47 /  40  10  10  40
DEQ  57  36  49  39 /  10  10  10  50
TXK  56  39  50  45 /  10  10  10  60
ELD  55  35  49  43 /  20  10  10  50
TYR  61  47  58  53 /  20  10  10  50
GGG  58  44  56  50 /  20  10  10  50
LFK  67  50  64  57 /  20  10  10  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for LAZ001-002-
     010.

OK...None.
TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for TXZ124>126-
     136>138-149>153.

&&

13/13/13/24

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
612 AM CST Fri Jan 22 2021

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-231215-
Sevier-Howard-Little River-Hempstead-Nevada-Miller-Lafayette-
Columbia-Union-Caddo-Bossier-Webster-Claiborne-Lincoln-De Soto-
Red River-Bienville-Jackson-Ouachita-Sabine-Natchitoches-Winn-
Grant-Caldwell-La Salle-McCurtain-Bowie-Franklin-Titus-Camp-
Morris-Cass-Wood-Upshur-Marion-Smith-Gregg-Harrison-Cherokee-Rusk-
Panola-Nacogdoches-Shelby-Angelina-San Augustine-
612 AM CST Fri Jan 22 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Arkansas, for
northern Louisiana, for deep east and northeast Texas and
southeast Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

A dense fog advisory is in effect along and south of I-20 for
northeast Texas and northwest Louisiana, where visibility is a
half to quarter mile or less. Allow a little extra time for travel
in these areas especially, but really until mid morning, many
places may be hampered by fog to some extent. A weak cold front
will lift the fog by mid morning. Otherwise, a slight chance for
showers will linger this morning as well.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday...

Thunderstorm chances will increase once again by late this weekend
into early next week with the arrival of another strong cold front
and associated upper level storm system. The potential for severe
weather will continue to be monitored due to the unseasonably
warm air that will be in place ahead of this system. In addition,
heavy rainfall will also be possible. As such, the potential for
localized flash flooding may be possible given the very saturated
soil conditions.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of emergency management personnel...amateur radio
operators and storm spotters will not be needed through tonight.

24