River Flood Warning 81, NWS Seattle, WA

652 
WGUS86 KSEW 150806
FLSSEW

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Seattle WA
1206 AM PST Mon Nov 15 2021

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Washington...

  Bogachiel River Near La Push affecting Clallam County.

.Heavy rain in the Olympics will come to an end Monday morning.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Motorists should not attempt to drive around barricades or drive 
cars through flooded areas.

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the 
dangers of flooding.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued by this morning at 815 AM PST.

&&


WAC009-151615-
/O.CON.KSEW.FL.W.0081.000000T0000Z-211116T0645Z/
/BOGW1.1.ER.211115T0518Z.211115T1800Z.211115T2144Z.NO/
1206 AM PST Mon Nov 15 2021

...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH 
THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Bogachiel River Near La Push.

* WHEN...Until late this evening.

* IMPACTS...At 37.0 feet, the Bogachiel River will cause flooding of 
  State Highway 110 near the Bogachiel bridge...closing the road.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 10:30 PM PST Sunday the stage was 37.9 feet.
  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
    ending at 10:30 PM PST Sunday was 37.9 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 40.9
    feet late this morning. It will then fall below flood stage
    this evening.
  - Flood stage is 37.0 feet.
  - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
    37.1 feet on 12/10/2004.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 4789 12440 4789 12453 4789 12463 4795 12467
      4796 12455 4798 12443


$$

44

941 
WGUS86 KSEW 151259
FLSSEW

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Seattle WA
459 AM PST Mon Nov 15 2021

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in 
Washington...

  Bogachiel River Near La Push affecting Clallam County.

.Heavy rain will come to an end along the north coast this morning. 
The Bogachiel river will crest at record setting levels this morning 
before receding this afternoon and tonight.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Motorists should not attempt to drive around barricades or drive 
cars through flooded areas.

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued by this afternoon at 100 PM PST.

&&


WAC009-152100-
/O.EXT.KSEW.FL.W.0081.000000T0000Z-211116T0826Z/
/BOGW1.3.ER.211115T0518Z.211115T1500Z.211115T2326Z.NR/
459 AM PST Mon Nov 15 2021

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE 
TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Major flooding is occurring a record setting crest is 
  forecast.

* WHERE...Bogachiel River Near La Push.

* WHEN...Until just after midnight tonight.

* IMPACTS...At 41.0 feet, the Bogachiel River will cause major 
  flooding from State Highway 110 near the Bogachiel bridge down to 
  its mouth.  Deep...swiftly moving water will inundate residential 
  areas and SR 110 in the valley near the Bogachiel River bridge.  
  Homes and businesses will be inundated in La Push near the mouth 
  of the river.  Flooding will occur all along the river including 
  headwaters...tributaries...and other streams within and near the 
  Bogachiel River Basin.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 3:30 AM PST Monday the stage was 41.9 feet.
  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
    ending at 1:30 AM PST Monday was 40.1 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 44.8
    feet this morning. It will then fall below flood stage
    tonight.
  - Flood stage is 37.0 feet.
  - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
    38.8 feet on 10/20/2003.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 4789 12440 4789 12453 4789 12463 4795 12467
      4796 12455 4798 12443


$$

44

861 
WGUS46 KSEW 151303
FLWSEW

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Seattle WA
503 AM PST Mon Nov 15 2021

...Forecast flooding changed from Minor to Major severity and 
increased in duration for the following rivers in Washington...

  Bogachiel River Near La Push affecting Clallam County.

.Heavy rain will come to an end along the north coast this morning. 
The Bogachiel river will crest at record levels late this morning 
before receding this afternoon and tonight.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Motorists should not attempt to drive around barricades or drive 
cars through flooded areas.

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued by this afternoon at 115 PM PST.

&&


WAC009-152115-
/O.EXT.KSEW.FL.W.0081.000000T0000Z-211116T1328Z/
/BOGW1.3.ER.211115T0518Z.211115T1800Z.211116T0428Z.NR/
503 AM PST Mon Nov 15 2021

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE 
TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Major flooding is occurring and major flooding is forecast. 
  This approaches the flood of record.

* WHERE...Bogachiel River Near La Push.

* WHEN...Until late tonight.

* IMPACTS...At 41.0 feet, the Bogachiel River will cause major 
  flooding from State Highway 110 near the Bogachiel bridge down to 
  its mouth.  Deep...swiftly moving water will inundate residential 
  areas and SR 110 in the valley near the Bogachiel River bridge.  
  Homes and businesses will be inundated in La Push near the mouth 
  of the river.  Flooding will occur all along the river including 
  headwaters...tributaries...and other streams within and near the 
  Bogachiel River Basin.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 4:30 AM PST Monday the stage was 42.7 feet.
  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
    ending at 4:30 AM PST Monday was 42.7 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 44.8
    feet late this morning. It will then fall below flood stage
    this evening.
  - Flood stage is 37.0 feet.
  - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
    42.6 feet on 11/06/2006.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 4789 12440 4789 12453 4789 12463 4795 12467
      4796 12455 4798 12443


$$

44

894 
WGUS86 KSEW 151758
FLSSEW

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Seattle WA
958 AM PST Mon Nov 15 2021

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Washington...

  Elwha River At McDonald Bridge affecting Clallam County.

  Bogachiel River Near La Push affecting Clallam County.

.Heavy rain will come to an end along the north coast this morning. 
The Bogachiel River will crest at record levels late this morning 
before receding this afternoon and tonight. The Elwa river will be 
lower, cresting at minor flood severity this afternoon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Motorists should not attempt to drive around barricades or drive 
cars through flooded areas.

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued by this evening at 600 PM PST.

&&


WAC009-160200-
/O.EXT.KSEW.FL.W.0082.000000T0000Z-211116T1000Z/
/ELWW1.1.ER.211115T1153Z.211116T0000Z.211116T0100Z.NO/
958 AM PST Mon Nov 15 2021

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE 
TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Elwha River At McDonald Bridge.

* WHEN...Until just after midnight tonight.

* IMPACTS...At 20.0 feet, the Elwha River will flood roads and 
  pasture lands along the river...with flood waters encroaching on 
  some residential areas.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 9:00 AM PST Monday the stage was 18.9 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
    this afternoon to a crest of 20.3 feet late this afternoon.
    It will then fall below flood stage late this afternoon.
  - Flood stage is 20.0 feet.
  - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
    20.2 feet on 12/04/1975.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 4800 12365 4807 12364 4814 12357 4814 12353
      4807 12354 4800 12354


$$

WAC009-160200-
/O.EXT.KSEW.FL.W.0081.000000T0000Z-211116T1236Z/
/BOGW1.3.ER.211115T0518Z.211115T1755Z.211116T0336Z.NR/
958 AM PST Mon Nov 15 2021

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE 
TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Major flooding is occurring and major flooding is forecast. 
  This approaches the flood of record.

* WHERE...Bogachiel River Near La Push.

* WHEN...Until late tonight.

* IMPACTS...At 41.0 feet, the Bogachiel River will cause major 
  flooding from State Highway 110 near the Bogachiel bridge down to 
  its mouth.  Deep...swiftly moving water will inundate residential 
  areas and SR 110 in the valley near the Bogachiel River bridge.  
  Homes and businesses will be inundated in La Push near the mouth 
  of the river.  Flooding will occur all along the river including 
  headwaters...tributaries...and other streams within and near the 
  Bogachiel River Basin.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 9:30 AM PST Monday the stage was 44.1 feet.
  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
    ending at 9:30 AM PST Monday was 44.1 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 44.8
    feet late this morning. It will then fall below flood stage
    this evening.
  - Flood stage is 37.0 feet.
  - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
    42.6 feet on 11/06/2006.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 4789 12440 4789 12453 4789 12463 4795 12467
      4796 12455 4798 12443


$$

JBB

793 
WGUS86 KSEW 160017
FLSSEW

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Seattle WA
417 PM PST Mon Nov 15 2021

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in 
Washington...

  Bogachiel River Near La Push affecting Clallam County.

.Only showers remain for tonight into tomorrow. The Bogachiel River 
has crested and will continue to fall overnight.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Motorists should not attempt to drive around barricades or drive 
cars through flooded areas.

Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued by late tonight at 1215 AM PST.

&&


WAC009-160830-
/O.EXT.KSEW.FL.W.0081.000000T0000Z-211116T1949Z/
/BOGW1.3.ER.211115T0518Z.211115T2200Z.211116T1049Z.NR/
417 PM PST Mon Nov 15 2021

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY 
MORNING...

* WHAT...Major flooding is occurring and major flooding is forecast. 
  This exceeded the flood of record.

* WHERE...Bogachiel River Near La Push.

* WHEN...Until late tomorrow morning.

* IMPACTS...At 41.0 feet, the Bogachiel River will cause major 
  flooding from State Highway 110 near the Bogachiel bridge down to 
  its mouth.  Deep...swiftly moving water will inundate residential 
  areas and SR 110 in the valley near the Bogachiel River bridge.  
  Homes and businesses will be inundated in La Push near the mouth 
  of the river.  Flooding will occur all along the river including 
  headwaters...tributaries...and other streams within and near the 
  Bogachiel River Basin.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 3:30 PM PST Monday the stage was 44.5 feet.
  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
    ending at 3:30 PM PST Monday was 44.9 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is cresting now and is expected to fall
    below flood stage just after midnight tonight and continue
    falling to 27.8 feet Wednesday afternoon.
  - Flood stage is 37.0 feet.
  - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
    42.6 feet on 11/06/2006.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 4789 12440 4789 12453 4789 12463 4795 12467
      4796 12455 4798 12443


$$

JBB

616 
WGUS86 KSEW 160049
FLSSEW

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Seattle WA
449 PM PST Mon Nov 15 2021

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in 
Washington...

  Elwha River At McDonald Bridge affecting Clallam County.

  Skokomish River At Potlatch affecting Mason County.

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Washington...

  Bogachiel River Near La Push affecting Clallam County.

.Heavy rain has transitioned to showers. The Bogachiel and Elwha 
Rivers have crested and will continue to fall overnight.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Motorists should not attempt to drive around barricades or drive 
cars through flooded areas.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the 
dangers of flooding.

Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks.

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued by late tonight at 400 AM PST.

&&


WAC009-161215-
/O.EXT.KSEW.FL.W.0082.000000T0000Z-211116T2213Z/
/ELWW1.1.ER.211115T1153Z.211115T2230Z.211116T1313Z.NO/
449 PM PST Mon Nov 15 2021

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY 
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Elwha River At McDonald Bridge.

* WHEN...Until early tomorrow afternoon.

* IMPACTS...At 21.5 feet, the Elwha River will flood roads...much of 
  the pasture land along the river...and several residential areas. 
  Erosion may damage river banks.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 4:00 PM PST Monday the stage was 21.5 feet.
  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
    ending at 4:00 PM PST Monday was 22.8 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage
    late tonight.
  - Flood stage is 20.0 feet.
  - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
    21.5 feet on 11/22/1959.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 4800 12365 4807 12364 4814 12357 4814 12353
      4807 12354 4800 12354


$$

WAC045-161215-
/O.EXT.KSEW.FL.W.0051.000000T0000Z-211119T0834Z/
/SRPW1.2.ER.211114T0600Z.211116T0000Z.211119T0009Z.NR/
449 PM PST Mon Nov 15 2021

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE 
THURSDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Moderate flooding is occurring and moderate flooding is 
  forecast.

* WHERE...Skokomish River At Potlatch.

* WHEN...Until early Friday morning.

* IMPACTS...At 17.5 feet, the Skokomish River will cause moderate 
  flooding, with deep and quick flood waters inundating some 
  residential areas, many roads, and much of the farm land in the 
  Skokomish Valley. Inundated roads include the Skokomish Valley 
  road, Bourgault Road West, Purdy Cutoff Road, and Highway 106.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 4:00 PM PST Monday the stage was 17.8 feet.
  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
    ending at 4:00 PM PST Monday was 17.8 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage
    Thursday afternoon.
  - Flood stage is 16.5 feet.
  - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
    17.8 feet on 03/19/1997.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 4744 12326 4733 12321 4736 12317 4733 12308
      4721 12321 4738 12340


$$

WAC009-161215-
/O.CON.KSEW.FL.W.0081.000000T0000Z-211116T1949Z/
/BOGW1.3.ER.211115T0518Z.211115T2200Z.211116T1049Z.NR/
449 PM PST Mon Nov 15 2021

...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 
TUESDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Major flooding is occurring and major flooding is forecast. 
  This approaches the flood of record.

* WHERE...Bogachiel River Near La Push.

* WHEN...Until late tomorrow morning.

* IMPACTS...At 41.0 feet, the Bogachiel River will cause major 
  flooding from State Highway 110 near the Bogachiel bridge down to 
  its mouth.  Deep...swiftly moving water will inundate residential 
  areas and SR 110 in the valley near the Bogachiel River bridge.  
  Homes and businesses will be inundated in La Push near the mouth 
  of the river.  Flooding will occur all along the river including 
  headwaters...tributaries...and other streams within and near the 
  Bogachiel River Basin.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 3:30 PM PST Monday the stage was 44.5 feet.
  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
    ending at 3:30 PM PST Monday was 44.9 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage
    late tonight.
  - Flood stage is 37.0 feet.
  - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
    42.6 feet on 11/06/2006.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 4789 12440 4789 12453 4789 12463 4795 12467
      4796 12455 4798 12443


$$

45

423 
WGUS86 KSEW 161134
FLSSEW

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Seattle WA
334 AM PST Tue Nov 16 2021

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Washington...

  Bogachiel River Near La Push affecting Clallam County.

.Steady rain came to an end Monday. The Bogachiel will continue to 
recede today.

WAC009-161245-
/O.CAN.KSEW.FL.W.0081.000000T0000Z-211116T1134Z/
/BOGW1.3.ER.211115T0518Z.211115T2200Z.211116T0746Z.NR/
334 AM PST Tue Nov 16 2021

...FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED EARLY THIS MORNING...

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the Bogachiel River Near La Push.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 2:30 AM PST Tuesday the stage was 35.6 feet.
  - The river crested at a record 44.9 feet early Monday
    afternoon.
  - Forecast...The river is below flood stage and will continue
    to recede.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 4789 12440 4789 12453 4789 12463 4795 12467
      4796 12455 4798 12443


$$

44

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
725 PM PST Sun Nov 14 2021

.SYNOPSIS...Precipitation through Monday as an Atmospheric River
impacts the area. River flooding, landslide and downed trees
resulting in power outages will remain a threat as a front moves
through the area. Snow levels will lower Monday night into Tuesday
with scattered lowland showers and mountain snow. Drier weather
Tuesday night into Wednesday with the potential for another system
late week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...Current radar shows most
the rainfall activity has moved over the northern third of the CWA,
focusing on Whatcom and Skagit counties, however it does look like
more rain is starting to develop and fill in the southern portion of
the area. Surface winds remain gusty over portions of the area.
Usual favored area along the coast with locations along and in the
Sound seeing highest gusts at the time of this writing but north
interior is expected to start catching up during the overnight
hours. Winds will remain a concern as the cold front pushes inland.
This will see speeds increase even further, pushing coastal areas
and the Admiralty Inlet area into High Wind Warning criteria. As
such, will be converting the Watch already present there into a
warning. Otherwise, no major changes planned to the forecast this
evening. For forecast details, please refer to Previous Forecast
section below.

From Previous Discussion...The pattern will be active through Monday
night, with the expected weather impacts:

Rain: The plume of moisture with the AR is focused along the
North Coast and near the BC border this afternoon into this
evening. A stationary front will be located along the BC border
into tonight with the heaviest precipitation in these areas.
Scattered showers south of Skagit County, and upslope
precipitation for the Olympics/Cascades. A secondary low will
strengthen offshore into Monday morning, and a cold front will
slide south across the area during the day. For most areas, the
most impactful (outside of Skagit/Whatcom/North Coast) will be
during the day on Monday. Heaviest rain expected to move through
between 9AM-3PM for most of the interior. Urban flooding will be
possible for low-lying areas with poor drainage during this with
rates of 0.25-0.50" possible. Winds will also be a significant
concern for more widespread impacts with the saturated soils
across the area (refer to Wind section). Rain will taper off late
Monday with a potential convergence zone expected Monday night
into Tuesday with strong west winds for Admiralty Inlet/Snohomish
(refer to marine section). Additional 50th Percentile Amounts:

Cascades/Olympics: 5-9" - heaviest rainfall amounts expected
north of King County, particularly across Whatcom/Skagit Counties.

Lowlands: 0.50-1.50" - an additional 2-3" for Whatcom County
lowland areas and 2-5" for the coast.

Winds: Windy period to continue overnight into Monday across the
whole of Western Washington. Models are consistent with the
development of a mesoscale surface low on the lee side
of the Olympic Mountains on Monday morning. This will act to enhance
southerly winds across the interior lowlands. Strong gradients and
pressure rises associated with the cold front could lead to a
period of high winds along the coast Monday morning. A strong post-
frontal westerly surge down the Strait of Juan de Fuca is expected
on Monday afternoon which could acutely lead to wind related impacts
for the Admiralty Inlet area, Whidbey Island, and shoreline areas of
Snohomish County. Advisory level winds of 25-35 mph with gusts 40-45
mph are expected across nearly all lowland areas of the region.
Given saturated soils in place, the potential for power outages and
tree damage are elevated. Winds will gradually ease Monday night.
High Wind Watches for the Central Coast and Admiralty Inlet have
been issued with Wind Advisories for most other areas. (JD/27)

Mountain Snow: Snow amounts for the Cascades have increased. Snow
levels will lower to 1500-2000 feet Monday night into Tuesday.
Convergence Zone activity expected during this period with
potentially additional banding across the Cascades. Amounts of
4-6" possible for Snoqualmie Pass with 6-8" for Stevens Pass.
Heavier amounts will be possible across areas of King/Snohomish
Counties with convergence zone activity into Tuesday.
Precipitation tapers off on Tuesday.

Dry weather for Wednesday with high pressure across the area.
Cooler weather expected midweek.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...Another weather system will
move through the area Thursday into Friday. Lowland rain, breezy
winds, and additional mountain snow is expected. Ensembles have
potentially drier weather on Saturday as ridging builds into the
area, but some slight precipitation in the forecast with
uncertainty for the area. Temperatures will be cooler, with chilly
overnights, for the area. JD

&&

.AVIATION...A stalled frontal boundary lies just north of the
Canadian border with strong westerly flow aloft and gusty southerly
winds near the surface. Flow aloft will become more SWerly overnight
tonight and into Monday. The air mass remains very moist and stable.
Area cigs mostly MVFR with some isolated IFR to LIFR spots. There is
a little bit of a break in the rain over the southern half of the
CWA, but current radar does show more rain on the way, so break
likely to end by 06Z this evening. Light to moderate rainfall
continues over the northern half of the area and is expected to do
so for the remainder of the TAF period. That said, little to no
improvement to cigs expected over the next 24 hours. Very gusty
surface winds will continue into Monday. Low level winds just above
the surface will remain quite strong...S/SW 45 to 60 knots between
2000 and 5000 feet. This is expected to continue tonight and into
early Monday morning.

KSEA...Low-end MVFR conditions will continue into Monday with light
rain at times. Surface winds to remain gusty out of the S/SW 15 to
25 knots before speeds increase early Monday morning ahead of an
approaching cold front with some gusts of 30 to 40 knots possible
12Z-18Z. LLWS will again be an issue for the remainder into the
overnight hours with S/SW winds of 40-45 knots down to 2000 feet.
27/18

&&

.MARINE...Gale warnings in effect for all waters into Monday as
confidence remains high that winds will become rather strong in the
vicinity of a cold front as it moves onshore around midday. Models
remain consistent that a strong westerly surge will follow the
front...which has prompted a storm warning for the east entrance to
the strait. In addition, the formation of a meso-low in the lee of
the Olympics on Monday followed by impressive pressure rises will be
a driving force for widespread gale force winds over the interior
waters Monday afternoon. Inherited headlines look good and will go
unaltered in the evening forecast update.

High pressure will rebuild across the waters Tuesday into Wednesday
allowing winds to relax and seas to subside. Surface ridging will
settle over the interior of British Columbia by midweek for offshore
flow.  27/18

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Persistent moderate to heavy rain has spread across
the region at this hour with area rivers beginning to respond to
additional excess runoff. Excessive additional rainfall over
saturated ground coupled with snowmelt portions of the Cascades
and Olympics due to wind friction and high snow levels will drive
some rivers up to Major Flood Stage on Monday. These include:
South Fork of the Nooksack, the Skagit, Dungeness and the Elwa
Rivers.

High resolution guidance is in agreement in keeping the band of
heaviest rainfall generally from Snohomish County/northern Jefferson
County northward this evening through early tomorrow morning
before the rainband pivots and pushes across all of Western
Washington late morning through the afternoon. This will yield
higher rainfall amounts in these areas, generally on the order of
2 to 4 inches in the lowlands and 4 to 8 inches, locally higher in
the mountains through late Monday in these areas. Rainfall totals
will be less south of these areas, with rivers not expected to
reach flood stage outside of a few points in northeastern King
County and the Skokomish River in Mason County. Rivers reaching
flood stage are generally expected to crest Monday afternoon and
recede Monday evening, with larger rivers expected to crest on
Tuesday and recede into the day Wednesday.

Heavy rainfall rates approaching 0.5-1"/hr at times will make urban
flooding a threat through Monday evening. In addition, the risk of
landslides will once again remain high beginning tonight and
persisting through at least Tuesday due to heavy rainfall and
strong, gusty winds that will make area bluffs unstable.

Pullin

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Flood Watch through Tuesday afternoon for Admiralty Inlet Area-
     Bellevue and Vicinity-Cascades of Pierce and Lewis Counties-
     Cascades of Snohomish and King Counties-Cascades of Whatcom
     and Skagit Counties-Central Coast-East Puget Sound Lowlands-
     Eastern Strait of Juan de Fuca-Everett and Vicinity-Hood
     Canal Area-Lower Chehalis Valley Area-North Coast-Olympics-
     Seattle and Vicinity-Tacoma Area-Western Skagit County-
     Western Strait of Juan De Fuca-Western Whatcom County.

     Wind Advisory until 4 PM PST Monday for Bremerton and Vicinity-
     Hood Canal Area-Seattle and Vicinity-Southwest Interior-
     Tacoma Area.

     High Wind Warning from 10 AM to 7 PM PST Monday for Admiralty
     Inlet Area-Everett and Vicinity-Western Skagit County.

     Wind Advisory until 10 AM PST Monday for Admiralty Inlet Area-
     Everett and Vicinity.

     High Wind Warning until 4 PM PST Monday for Central Coast.

     Wind Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for Central Coast.

     Wind Advisory until 1 PM PST Monday for North Coast.

     Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM PST Monday for Eastern Strait
     of Juan de Fuca.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM PST Monday for Grays Harbor Bar.

     Gale Warning until 4 AM PST Tuesday for Coastal Waters From Cape
     Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From
     Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From
     James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters
     From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal
     Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-
     Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out
     10 Nm.

     Storm Warning from 10 AM to 7 PM PST Monday for East Entrance
     U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.

     Gale Warning until 10 AM PST Monday for East Entrance U.S.
     Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.

     Gale Warning until 4 PM PST Monday for Admiralty Inlet-Northern
     Inland Waters Including The San Juan Islands-Puget Sound
     and Hood Canal.

     Gale Warning until 7 PM PST Monday for Central U.S. Waters
     Strait Of Juan De Fuca-West Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of
     Juan De Fuca.

&&

www.weather.gov/seattle

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Seattle WA
327 PM PST Sun Nov 14 2021

WAZ503-504-506-507-509-511>517-555-556-558-559-567>569-160100-
Western Whatcom County-Southwest Interior-Western Skagit County-
Everett and Vicinity-Tacoma Area-Hood Canal Area-
Lower Chehalis Valley Area-Olympics-
Eastern Strait of Juan de Fuca-Western Strait of Juan De Fuca-
North Coast-Central Coast-East Puget Sound Lowlands-
Bellevue and Vicinity-Seattle and Vicinity-Bremerton and Vicinity-
Cascades of Whatcom and Skagit Counties-
Cascades of Snohomish and King Counties-
Cascades of Pierce and Lewis Counties-
327 PM PST Sun Nov 14 2021

...CONTINUED HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CAUSE AN ELEVATED
THREAT OF LANDSLIDES TO CONTINUE IN WESTERN WASHINGTON...

Rainfall amounts of 6-12 inches over the past 7 days has led to
high soil moisture levels across western Washington. Additional
rainfall totals of 2-4 inches across the lowlands and 5-10 inches
across the mountains is expected with through Tuesday morning.
Rainfall rates could reach 0.5" to 1"/hr at times in the heaviest
pockets of rain. This, coupled with strong southerly winds
through Monday afternoon will put extra pressure on soil
instability and lead to an elevated threat of landslides.

For more information about current conditions, visit
www.weather.gov/seattle, select Hydrology, and then scroll down
for the links to the landslide information pages.

For more information on landslides, visit the website for the
Washington State Department of Natural Resources landslide
geologic hazards at: http://bit.ly/2mtA3wn

www.weather.gov/seattle

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
609 PM PST SUN NOV 14 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 AM     DEBRIS FLOW      2 SW HAMILTON           48.50N 122.02W
11/14/2021                   SKAGIT             WA   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            CORRECTS PREVIOUS DEBRIS FLOW REPORT FROM 2
            SW HAMILTON. LANDSLIDE OVER S SKAGIT HWY
            BLOCKING THE E BOUND LANES AT MILE POST 4.
            PUBLIC WORKS ESTIMATES THAT IT IS 10X8 FEET
            AND A COUPLE OF INCHES DEEP. LSR LOCATION
            APPROXIMATE.

&&

JP