Severe Thunderstorm Warning 78, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
229 PM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold front brings strong to severe storms with heavy rain to
the area today. Dry with high pressure middle of next week. Wet
weather returns for next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 230 PM Monday...

Plenty of instability is present with values of SB/MUCAPE in
the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range, DCAPE values of around 1000 J/kg,
and effective wind shear values of 25-30 kts. The first line of
storms is moving into the eastern edge of the area. Another line
ahead of the cold front is beginning to move into the area with
more strong to severe storms expected. A Severe Thunderstorm
Watch has been issued through 8 PM. Damaging winds continue to
be the main threat expected with these storms with some hail and
a possible tornado not out of the question.

Storms will be possible into the evening with instability
gradually decreasing into the night. The front itself will move
into the area early this evening, moving through the area
overnight tonight. More stratiform-like rain is expected to
continue along and behind the front throughout the night,
gradually moving out to the southeast throughout Tuesday. Some
isolated/localized flooding issues may be possible especially in
low lying or flood prone areas, or in areas that get hit more
than once with storms. Overall, however, with flash flood
guidance decently high ahead of the event particularly across
those areas with the higher rain amounts expected, have opted
out of a flash flood watch for now.

Expecting the area to largely dry out by midday Tuesday as much
drier area pushes into the area and high pressure settles in to
stick around through the middle of the week. Temperatures on
Tuesday will be much cooler than they have been with low 70s for
the lowlands and mid 50s to 60s for the upper elevations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 200 PM Monday...

High pressure will be in control during the short term period,
with gradually warming temperatures as we head towards the long
term period.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1200 PM Monday...

High pressure and dry conditions continue across the area on
Thursday, however, by Friday, deepening upper trough across the
midwest, and increasing heat and humidity, along with a low
pressure system that will move into the Great Lakes region, will
result in showers and thunderstorms once again across the area.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 150 PM Monday...

The first line of thunderstorms is approaching the mountains
currently, moving over CKB and soon approaching EKN/BKW.
MVFR/IFR visibilities are possible in heavy downpours with any
storms and lightning and gusty winds may affect the sites as
well. If any severe storms move over the sites, damaging winds
and some hail may be possible.

A second line of storms will approach in a few hours ahead of
the cold front with strong storms expected along this line.
Currently thinking this next line of storms will affect HTS
around 20Z and the gradually move towards the other sites,
however it is possible this line may be quicker to develop and
push into the area. Have VCTS coded in at most of the sites
through the first half of period as thunderstorms will continue
to be possible through late this evening with showers continuing
into Tuesday morning. TSRA is coded into tempo groups and storms
approach the sites and may briefly lead to deteriorating
conditions. By the evening, ceilings are expected to fall to
MVFR and then further to IFR at most sites as the front moves
into the area and more stratiform-like rain develops. MVFR/IFR
visibilities will continue to be possible in rain through the
night.

By the end of the period, conditions will gradually begin to
improve as showers move out of the area throughout the morning
into Tuesday afternoon. Ceilings will gradually lift to MVFR
with some sites potentially reaching up to VFR by the end of the
period.

Winds will be gusty with the storms through the evening.
Southwesterly winds are around 10-15KTs and gusts up to around
20-25KTs possible with higher gusts possible if any
thunderstorms move over a site. Behind the front winds will
shift to become more northwesterly and will be lighter, at
around 5-10KTs, tomorrow.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Convective coverage will vary this
afternoon depending on how a couple separate lines of storm
develop. Current tempos for TSRA may need some adjustment in
time.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    M    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    L    H    H    H    H    H    L

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
No widespread IFR currently expected.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SL/CG
NEAR TERM...CG
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...CG

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Charleston WV
355 AM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-WVZ005>011-013>020-027>032-
039-040-519>526-220800-
Greenup-Carter-Boyd-Lawrence KY-Perry-Morgan-Athens-Washington-
Jackson OH-Vinton-Meigs-Gallia-Lawrence OH-Wayne-Cabell-Mason-
Jackson WV-Wood-Pleasants-Tyler-Lincoln-Putnam-Kanawha-Roane-Wirt-
Calhoun-Ritchie-Doddridge-Clay-Braxton-Gilmer-Lewis-Harrison-Taylor-
Upshur-Barbour-Northwest Nicholas-Southeast Nicholas-
Northwest Webster-Southeast Webster-Northwest Pocahontas-
Southeast Pocahontas-Northwest Randolph-Southeast Randolph-
355 AM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Kentucky, southeast
Ohio and much of West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Two lines of thunderstorms are expected to form in advance of a cold
front this afternoon into this evening. Some of these storms may
contain damaging wind gusts, large hail, and heavy downpours.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

VAZ003-004-WVZ024>026-033-034-515>518-220800-
Dickenson-Buchanan-Mingo-Logan-Boone-McDowell-Wyoming-
Northwest Raleigh-Southeast Raleigh-Northwest Fayette-
Southeast Fayette-
355 AM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Virginia, and
portions of southeast West Virginia and southern West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Two lines of thunderstorms are expected to form in advance of a cold
front this afternoon into this evening. Some of these storms may
contain damaging wind gusts and heavy downpours.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
246 PM EDT MON JUN 21 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0115 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NNE PINCH             38.42N 81.48W
06/21/2021                   KANAWHA            WV   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN ON UPPER PINCH RD.

&&

ABE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
256 PM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021

KYZ105-WVZ005-211930-
Lawrence-Wayne-
256 PM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT LAWRENCE AND CENTRAL WAYNE
COUNTIES...

At 256 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Blaine, moving
east at 35 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Louisa, Blaine, Yatesville Lake State Park, Fort Gay, Hode, Ulysses,
East Lynn Lake, Charley, Dunlow, Martha, Gallup, Crum, Clifford,
Glenhayes, Houckville and Genoa.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 3804 8300 3805 8296 3811 8289 3815 8291
      3820 8238 3788 8238 3786 8241 3791 8247
      3790 8247 3790 8248 3795 8250 3796 8253
      3795 8258 3788 8261 3789 8267 3797 8283
      3800 8294 3800 8296 3796 8299 3798 8302
TIME...MOT...LOC 1856Z 261DEG 32KT 3802 8281

14

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
256 PM EDT MON JUN 21 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0117 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 E HOLDEN              37.82N 82.03W
06/21/2021                   LOGAN              WV   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN IN WHITMAN.

&&

ABE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
324 PM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021

OHZ075-076-083>085-WVZ009-212000-
Washington-Jackson-Athens-Meigs-Vinton-Wood-
324 PM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHERN MEIGS...
SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON...NORTHEASTERN JACKSON...SOUTHEASTERN
VINTON...ATHENS AND NORTHWESTERN WOOD COUNTIES...

At 324 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from 6 miles southeast of Glouster to 6 miles
east of Lake Hope State Park to near Mcarthur. Movement was east at
35 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail are possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
Parkersburg, Athens, Belpre, Wellston, Mcarthur, Albany, Coolville,
Rutland, Lake Hope State Park, Vienna, Washington, Tuppers Plains,
Boaz, Chauncey, Hamden, North Hills, Zaleski, Wilkesville, Radcliffe
and Stroud Run State Park.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 77 in West Virginia between mile markers 181 and 183.
 Route 50 in West Virginia between mile markers 1 and 2.

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

LAT...LON 3939 8195 3935 8140 3900 8218 3901 8225
      3920 8266 3947 8206
TIME...MOT...LOC 1924Z 292DEG 30KT 3943 8202 3934 8224 3921 8251

19

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
355 PM EDT MON JUN 21 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0155 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 E GRAFTON             39.35N 79.94W
06/21/2021                   TAYLOR             WV   BROADCAST MEDIA

            TREES DOWN IN THE THORNTON AREA.

&&

ABE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
403 PM EDT MON JUN 21 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0320 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 NNW OCEANA            37.74N 81.67W
06/21/2021                   WYOMING            WV   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN IN THE CYCLONE AREA.

&&

ABE