Alert archive / Colorado / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2021

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 275, NWS Pueblo, CO

September 3, 2021Bent County, Kiowa County, Prowers County, Colorado

NWS Pueblo, CO issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Sep 3, 2021, 9:50 PM MDT for Bent County, Kiowa County, Prowers County, Colorado. It was in force for 50 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Sep 3, 2021, 9:50 PM MDT (03:50 UTC)
Expired
Sep 3, 2021, 10:40 PM MDT
In force
50 min
Issued by
NWS Pueblo, CO
Area
Storm-based polygon
Hail
1.0 in
Wind
60.0 mph

Counties Bent County, CO, Kiowa County, CO, Prowers County, CO

The radar

The Goodland radar (KGLD), 144 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 03:52 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Denver, CO (KDNR), launched 00:00Z, 3.8 hours before the alert went out and 199 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Denver, CO at 00:00Z on 2021-09-04Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 149 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Denver, CO at 00:00Z on 2021-09-04The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -29 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
149 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-104 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1661 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
27 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-29 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
-4 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

934 
WUUS55 KPUB 040350
SVRPUB
COC011-061-099-040515-
/O.NEW.KPUB.SV.W.0275.210904T0350Z-210904T0515Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
950 PM MDT Fri Sep 3 2021

The National Weather Service in Pueblo has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Northern Prowers County in southeastern Colorado...
  Eastern Kiowa County in southeastern Colorado...
  Northeastern Bent County in southeastern Colorado...

* Until 1115 PM MDT.

* At 950 PM MDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
  extending from near Brandon to near McClave, moving southeast at 20
  mph.

  HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage 
           to roofs, siding, and trees.

* Severe thunderstorms will be near...
  Chivington around 955 PM MDT.
  Brandon around 1005 PM MDT.

Other locations in the path of these severe thunderstorms include
Wiley, Sheridan Lake and Lamar.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Wind damage with these storms will occur before any rain or
lightning. Do not wait for the sound of thunder before taking cover.
SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY inside a sturdy structure and stay away from
windows.

&&

LAT...LON 3796 10230 3796 10292 3821 10293 3856 10240
      3856 10204 3818 10204
TIME...MOT...LOC 0350Z 308DEG 16KT 3851 10246 3820 10290 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

Cohen
3 follow-up statements
644 
WWUS55 KPUB 040426
SVSPUB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1026 PM MDT Fri Sep 3 2021

COC011-040436-
/O.CAN.KPUB.SV.W.0275.000000T0000Z-210904T0515Z/
Bent CO-
1026 PM MDT Fri Sep 3 2021

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN BENT COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of the warned 
area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 3796 10273 3828 10257 3856 10228 3856 10204
      3818 10204 3796 10230
TIME...MOT...LOC 0426Z 299DEG 23KT 3846 10223 3803 10258 

$$

COC061-099-040515-
/O.CON.KPUB.SV.W.0275.000000T0000Z-210904T0515Z/
Prowers CO-Kiowa CO-
1026 PM MDT Fri Sep 3 2021

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1115 PM MDT
FOR NORTHERN PROWERS AND SOUTHEASTERN KIOWA COUNTIES...

At 1026 PM MDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Sheridan Lake to near Lamar, moving southeast at
25 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
  Towner.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Wind damage with these storms will occur before any rain or
lightning. Do not wait for the sound of thunder before taking cover.
SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY inside a sturdy structure and stay away from
windows.

&&

LAT...LON 3796 10273 3828 10257 3856 10228 3856 10204
      3818 10204 3796 10230
TIME...MOT...LOC 0426Z 299DEG 23KT 3846 10223 3803 10258 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

Cohen
274 
WWUS55 KPUB 040433
SVSPUB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1033 PM MDT Fri Sep 3 2021

COC061-099-040515-
/O.CON.KPUB.SV.W.0275.000000T0000Z-210904T0515Z/
Prowers CO-Kiowa CO-
1033 PM MDT Fri Sep 3 2021

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1115 PM MDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN PROWERS AND SOUTHEASTERN KIOWA COUNTIES...

At 1033 PM MDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Sheridan Lake to near Lamar, moving southeast at
20 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Granada, Hartman, Towner and Bristol. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Wind damage with these storms will occur before any rain or
lightning. Do not wait for the sound of thunder before taking cover.
SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY inside a sturdy structure and stay away from
windows.

&&

LAT...LON 3796 10254 3822 10251 3852 10218 3852 10204
      3818 10204 3796 10230
TIME...MOT...LOC 0433Z 308DEG 16KT 3844 10220 3801 10255 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

Cohen
319 
WWUS55 KPUB 040440
SVSPUB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1040 PM MDT Fri Sep 3 2021

COC061-099-040450-
/O.CAN.KPUB.SV.W.0275.000000T0000Z-210904T0515Z/
Prowers CO-Kiowa CO-
1040 PM MDT Fri Sep 3 2021

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN PROWERS AND
SOUTHEASTERN KIOWA COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
            
The storms which prompted the warning have weakened below severe
limits, and no longer pose an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.  However small hail, gusty
winds and heavy rain are still possible with these thunderstorms.

LAT...LON 3796 10254 3822 10251 3852 10218 3852 10204
      3818 10204 3796 10230
TIME...MOT...LOC 0436Z 308DEG 16KT 3843 10218 3800 10253 

$$

Cohen

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Pueblo, CO wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Sep 3, 6:00 PM MDT, 3 hours 50 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Sep 3, 6:00 PM MDT, 3 hours 50 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
600 PM MDT Fri Sep 3 2021

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 559 PM MDT Fri Sep 3 2021

Main Forecast Concerns/Challenges:

1) We continue to monitor thunderstorm trends across El Paso
County/I-25 corridor hear in the near term as well as over the
eastern plains along the Highway 50 corridor later this evening
into the overnight hours.

2) A quick summary: Thunderstorm development across El Paso
county has stayed somewhat on the weaker side late this afternoon
and this looks to continue to be the case over the next couple of
hours. However, can't completely rule out an isolated stronger
storm across El Paso county over the next 1-2 hours.

3) Concerns are increasing for more organized development around
Pueblo and to the east across the Highway 50 corridor later this
evening into the overnight hours. In this location and during that
time, all hazards are possible including an increasing risk for
heavy rainfall and flash flooding.

Latest radar imagery continues to show persistent thunderstorm
development across the Palmer Divide, where low level convergence
and deep moist upslope flow are in place. An MLCAPE axis of 500
j/kg in this location along with steeper low and mid level lapse
rates are supporting these thunderstorms. While instability,
focus, and shear are in place, these storms have struggled to
strengthen and maintain themselves though. Looking at RAP analysis
and even more recent AMDAR soundings out of COS, there are some
warmer temperatures aloft that are likely playing a big part in
storm intensity at this time. Short term guidance/soundings have
initialized fairly well with current conditions, and the forecast
soundings over the next couple of hours show these warmer temps
aloft maintaining themselves. So, think thunderstorm development
will likely continue across the Pikes Peak region, Palmer Divide
and into other areas of El Paso county over the next couple of
hours but this development should stay subsevere. However, can't
rule out a stronger storm producing small hail up to one half inch
and wind gusts up to around 50 mph.

Once again, concerns are increasing for more organized
development around Pueblo and to the east over the plains later
this evening and tonight. While conditions aren't appearing to
come together right at this moment, latest trends and guidance are
indicating this will change by mid evening. The mid level energy
noted on latest WV imagery ejecting out ahead of a low amplitude
mid/upper trough is expected to arrive over the next couple of
hours. The arrival of this mid/upper forcing will help support lee
troughing and a developing 700mb low across the eastern plains,
with increases in 700mb and 850mb WAA as well as even some FGEN.
The arrival of all of this increasing large scale ascent will of
course support quickly developing thunderstorms but also support
the erosion of the warm temps aloft. Instability develops across
the plains as well as advects overhead this evening, while the
resultant easterly flow supports strong and deep moist advection.

So, expect additional thunderstorms to develop in the 8-10 pm
time frame over the Pueblo county area and quite possibly southern
El Paso county. During this time, developing MCS to the north is
expected to dive south/southeast into the better instability with
latest trends suggesting all of this merging into a larger complex
of storms over the eastern plains/Highway 50 corridor late this
evening into the overnight hours. Large hail to one inch is
possible, though the previously mentioned warmer temps aloft may
continue to help limit the extent of any hail tonight. A higher
threat may be be damaging wind gusts possibly in the 60-70 mph
range. However, even with this threat, there is still some
uncertainty based on factors such as how long the overlap of
forcing and instability will be and the time of night - likely
increasing CIN. Additionally, surface trough axis and possible
upstream outflow boundary could serve to increase the tornado
threat later this evening, and will continue to closely monitor
trends for this possibility. Lastly, the previously mentioned
moist advection will likely bring mid to upper 60s surface
dewpoints into eastern Colorado with short term guidance showing
850mb dewpoints of around 20c approaching the CO/KS border
tonight. This increased moisture along with storm mode (east to
west multicell and possibly training) will support an increased
risk for heavy rainfall and flash flooding. One last item to note,
is that this threat of severe storms and flash flooding could
extend well into the overnight hours for areas over far eastern
CO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 240 PM MDT Fri Sep 3 2021

Main Points:

1) Showers and thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage
later this afternoon and well into the overnight hours.

2) The Palmer Divide area will be seeing storms pass through, with
gusty winds, locally heavy rainfall and small hail as potential
threats. These storms should pop up in the next few hours and last
until around midnight.

3) Strong to severe storms will be possible later this evening and
tonight over the eastern plains, with the main threats being gusty
winds, hail of 1-2 inches, and perhaps even an isolated tornado.

Currently...

Cloud cover over the CWA has broken up slightly compared to this
morning, allowing for increased heating at the surface. A few
showers have already popped up over both the Continental Divide and
the far southeast plains, with no impactful weather reported as of
yet. Just north of our area, past the Palmer Divide, several strong
thunderstorms have already formed near the Denver Convergence Zone,
with storm motion vaguely heading northeast.

Today-Tomorrow...

The tip of an upper-level trough is currently making its way
eastward across Colorado, carrying with it enhanced lift and the
majority of the forcing for enhanced precipitation. Showers have
largely dwindled over the mountains and activity has steadily moved
east throughout the day, although coverage is expected to increase
overall as we progress later into the afternoon-evening hours,
thanks to a healthy influx of mid-level moisture expected to
circulate in around the upper-level high to our southeast. A weak
surface boundary is also set up far to the southeast, intersecting
portions of our southeast plains, which is assisting in giving us
some easterly upslope flow over the plains. The slowly recovering,
semi-stable air present in that area will also delay the onset of
significant convection for a few hours yet at least, but once
heating is able to overcome it and increase instability it may
result in stronger storms this evening.

Several short-term models have been consistently overmixing the
boundary layer over our area, mixing out dewpoints by several
degrees and limiting the extent of convection expected in our area.
Given current moisture profiles over the plains, these models
(including the HRRR) will have a bit less weight in the forecast for
today and tonight, while the NAM seems to be handling things much
better. Current analysis shows 500-1000 J/kg of CAPE over the Palmer
Divide area, and between 1000-1500 over the far southeast plains.
Around 30 knots of effective bulk shear are also present over the
Palmer, with a considerable 45+ knots over the plains. Current
dewpoints over the southeast plains are also currently sitting
around the mid-60s.

As of now, the main factor inhibiting thunderstorm development over
the plains is the semi-stable air (and related CIN) sitting in that
area. As daytime heating works to overcome it and continuously
destabilize the environment, the main forcing will come later this
evening as the axis of the upper trough passes overhead. As it does,
that forcing is expected to spark thunderstorms along and near the
boundary, assisted by easterly upslope flow increasing low-level
convergence. With the CAPE and shear in place, as well as the ample
moisture available in that area, we can expect a drastic increase in
precipitation over the next 12 hours.

To start, mostly moist, westerly flow aloft will assist in
increasing shower coverage over the mountains later this afternoon,
mainly over the San Juans, Sangres, and Continental Divide. As the
trough axis moves more to the east, the main forcing will expand to
cover the I-25 corridor, where upslope into our eastern mountains
and the Palmer Divide will assist in sparking scattered to
widespread showers and thunderstorms. As better forcing moves east
and the plains become further destabilized, strong to severe
thunderstorms will become possible later this evening into tonight.
Given the available surface vorticity traveling along with the upper-
level features, as well as the notable amounts of CAPE and shear
available, gusty 60 mph winds and 1-2 inch hail will be well within
the realms of possibility. Additionally, should an updraft manage to
latch itself to the existing surface vorticity and maintain itself,
cannot rule out the threat of an isolated tornado. Given the
strength of the easterly winds expected over the plains, this threat
could extend back to near the I-25 corridor, but is mainly confined
to the southeast plains near the CO-KS border.

Later tonight, storms are expected to continue, and as the upper
trough moves east, storms are expected to move off of the Palmer and
head southeast, where several short term models are actually
resolving a larger system with potential QLCS properties moving
across parts of the eastern plains before moving into Kansas by
tomorrow morning.

Showers are expected to persist into Saturday morning, although they
should be more stratiform in nature. A cold front is expected to
push south across the plains by late morning. Recent model trends
have been consistent in keeping the front more robust, meaning that
it will likely keep precipitation widespread over parts of the
southeast plains and our southeast mountains. However, given the
cooler, more stable air behind the front, thunderstorms, should any
manage to form, will likely be much weaker than the storms we expect
to see this evening. With post-frontal upslope flow expected to set
in by early afternoon, main concerns for Saturday's weather will be
storms firing over and near the Spring Burn Scar, with flash-
flooding concerns on the table should a more convective storm manage
to drop consistent rain. Otherwise, things tomorrow will be more
stratiform, with overcast skies over much of the plains and cooler

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 240 PM MDT Fri Sep 3 2021

Overall, there is great agreement through the extended between the
operational solutions and ensembles. This leads to higher
confidence in the extended period.

Saturday night...an upper level trough is forecast to slowly move
east into the Missouri Valley Saturday night, with trailing energy
shifting south across Eastern Colorado. Moist, easterly upslope
flow will be ongoing, with widespread precipitation from the
Eastern Mountains, east along the New Mexico border. Weak
instability may lead to a few thunderstorms over southern Sangre
de Cristo and Raton Mesa areas. Locally heavy rainfall may be
possible with stronger cores, which could produce a low risk of
flash flooding on the Spring burn scar. This activity will shift
south and east overnight, clearing to the southeast Sunday
morning.

Sunday through Thursday...high pressure will build over the Great
Basin and slowly shift eastward during this period. This will keep
dry conditions across southern Colorado for the Sunday afternoon,
through Thursday time frame. A dry cold front will bring a
continued cooler air mass to the area, with upper 80s to lower
90s across the Plains. Temperatures will gradually warm up by
Thursday, with mid to upper 90s expected across the Plains.

Friday...the upper level high will shift east into the Central
Plains by Friday, with southwesterly flow returning to souther
Colorado. Embedded energy could bring back showers and
thunderstorms to the forecast along the Mountains.  Mozley

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 240 PM MDT Fri Sep 3 2021

KALS: VFR conditions expected over the next 24 hours. Winds will
become gusty later this afternoon to about 20 mph before weakening
again this evening.

KCOS: VFR conditions generally expected through the next 24 hours.
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected in the
area, beginning after about 01Z and lasting through about 06Z
tonight. Given the nature of the expected precipitation, it is still
unclear whether anything will move directly over the terminal. If it
does, expect brief periods of moderate to heavy rainfall and gusty
erratic outflow winds. Will continue to closely monitor the area
this afternoon and evening. Precipitation should move away from the
area after midnight. After about 08Z tonight, there is a chance of
some lower clouds developing over the terminal, but left with VFR
conditions for now.

KPUB: VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. Isolated
to scattered showers and thunderstorms will begin in the area around
23Z and increase in coverage throughout the evening and into the
overnight hours. Direct impacts to the terminal are still expected
to be low at this time, so left as VCSH. If a shower does manage to
move over the terminal, brief periods of moderate to heavy rainfall
and gusty erratic winds could be expected along with brief vis drops
to MVFR. Rain is expected to clear out after about 09Z, where clouds
will disperse and winds will weaken into tomorrow morning.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE...RODRIGUEZ
SHORT TERM...GARBEROGLIO
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...GARBEROGLIO
Hazardous weather outlook, Sep 3, 3:52 PM MDT, 5 hours 58 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
352 PM MDT Fri Sep 3 2021

COZ058>089-093>099-042200-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
352 PM MDT Fri Sep 3 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across portions of
central and southeast Colorado late this afternoon into the
overnight hours tonight.

For this afternoon into the early evening, scattered thunderstorm
development will be possible over the Interstate-25 corridor from
Pueblo to the Colorado Springs area, along with areas farther
west toward the eastern slopes of nearby mountains. This activity
will spread generally eastward to southeastward, and will be
capable of producing strong winds and hail. A couple of the most
intense storms could produce quarter-size hail and 60-mph wind
gusts.

During the evening hours, thunderstorm activity will spread
eastward and southeastward, toward and across the plains of
southeast Colorado, potentially continuing through the pre-dawn
hours Saturday morning. While not certain, this activity could
increase in coverage and intensity during the late evening and
overnight hours, and could become capable of producing widely
scattered damaging winds, large hail, and possibly one or two
tornadoes. The most intense storms are expected to occur along and
north of a line from Avondale to La Junta to Lamar and Holly. In
addition, there will be the potential for repeated rounds of heavy
rainfall to occur late this evening into the overnight hours,
especially along the U.S. Highway 50 corridor, and this could
result in localized flash flooding.

With a risk for severe thunderstorms extending well into the
overnight hours tonight, interests across the southeast Colorado
plains are encouraged to prepare ahead of time, to have multiple
sources of being alerted to hazardous weather information.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected over the far
eastern plains on Saturday morning and then over the I-25 corridor
and the eastern mountains. The main hazards will be cloud-to -ground
lightning and gusty winds, and there is a flash flooding chance
over the Spring Burn Scar if a stronger storm were to develop
over it.

Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible over the southern
Sangre de Cristo Mountains, the Raton Mesa, and the Colorado-
New Mexico-Oklahoma border. Gusty winds are the main hazard.

Dry conditions are expected from Tuesday through Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will be
possible across the Interstate-25 corridor from Pueblo to the
Colorado Springs area, and locations eastward across the
southeast Colorado plains, through tonight.

COHEN/SKELLY

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Sep 3, 6:54 PM MDT, 2 hours 56 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
654 PM MDT Fri Sep 3 2021

COZ077-079-083-040115-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000Ft CO-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Ft CO-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County CO-
654 PM MDT Fri Sep 3 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Fremont
County through 715 PM MDT...

At 654 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles south of Royal Gorge, or 16 miles northwest of Junkins Burn
Scar, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southeastern
Fremont County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3826 10538 3835 10538 3835 10514 3826 10514
TIME...MOT...LOC 0054Z 272DEG 20KT 3831 10532

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Cohen
Special weather statement, Sep 3, 8:26 PM MDT, 1 hour 24 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
826 PM MDT Fri Sep 3 2021

COZ095-096-040300-
Western Kiowa County CO-Eastern Kiowa County CO-
826 PM MDT Fri Sep 3 2021

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northwestern Kiowa
County through 900 PM MDT...

At 826 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 11 miles east of Boyero to 13 miles north of
Haswell. Movement was southeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

These storms will remain over mainly rural areas of northwestern
Kiowa County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3843 10270 3850 10318 3853 10318 3853 10317
      3861 10317 3861 10268
TIME...MOT...LOC 0226Z 309DEG 18KT 3892 10306 3864 10313

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Cohen
Special weather statement, Sep 3, 8:44 PM MDT, 1 hour 6 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
844 PM MDT Fri Sep 3 2021

COZ079-083-085-086-040330-
Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet CO-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000Ft CO-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County CO-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range Below
7400 Ft CO-
844 PM MDT Fri Sep 3 2021

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southeastern Fremont,
south central El Paso and western Pueblo Counties through 930 PM
MDT...

At 844 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 6 miles south of Fountain to 7 miles west of
Pueblo West to 16 miles east of Greenhorn Mountain. Movement was
southeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Pueblo West, Pinon and Pueblo.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3867 10445 3805 10458 3792 10463 3790 10496
      3852 10494 3867 10476
TIME...MOT...LOC 0244Z 330DEG 18KT 3858 10473 3836 10487 3793 10472

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Cohen
Special weather statement, Sep 3, 8:47 PM MDT, 1 hour 3 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
847 PM MDT Fri Sep 3 2021

COZ089-095-040315-
Crowley County CO-Western Kiowa County CO-
847 PM MDT Fri Sep 3 2021

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southwestern Kiowa
and northeastern Crowley Counties through 915 PM MDT...

At 847 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 9 miles north of Arlington to 11 miles north of
Sugar City. Movement was south at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Arlington.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3831 10328 3824 10373 3848 10376 3852 10330
TIME...MOT...LOC 0247Z 345DEG 16KT 3846 10335 3839 10374

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Cohen
Special weather statement, Sep 3, 9:15 PM MDT, 35 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
915 PM MDT Fri Sep 3 2021

COZ089-093-095>098-040415-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County CO-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County CO-
Crowley County CO-Western Kiowa County CO-
La Junta Vicinity/Otero County CO-Eastern Kiowa County CO-
915 PM MDT Fri Sep 3 2021

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northeastern Otero,
northwestern Prowers, southwestern Kiowa, southeastern Crowley and
northern Bent Counties through 1015 PM MDT...

At 915 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Sugar City to 9 miles northeast of Blue
Lake. Movement was southeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Cheraw, Hasty and McClave.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3794 10360 3801 10257 3827 10234 3827 10270
      3840 10309 3831 10369
TIME...MOT...LOC 0315Z 324DEG 19KT 3823 10358 3832 10308

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Cohen
Special weather statement, Sep 3, 9:17 PM MDT, 33 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
917 PM MDT Fri Sep 3 2021

COZ085>088-040400-
Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet CO-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Ft CO-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range Below
7400 Ft CO-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Ft CO-
917 PM MDT Fri Sep 3 2021

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northeastern
Huerfano, southeastern El Paso, north central Las Animas and eastern
Pueblo Counties through 1000 PM MDT...

At 917 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking scattered strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from 6 miles northeast of
Hanover to 7 miles northeast of Walsenburg. Movement was east at 25
mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

These storms will remain over mainly rural areas of northeastern
Huerfano, southeastern El Paso, north central Las Animas and eastern
Pueblo Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3869 10450 3766 10475 3763 10443 3836 10410
      3870 10410
TIME...MOT...LOC 0317Z 269DEG 21KT 3870 10435 3770 10467

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Cohen

The office that day

Everything else NWS Pueblo, CO issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Sep 3, 6:54 PM MDTSpecial Weather StatementPUBFremont21 min
Sep 3, 8:26 PM MDTSpecial Weather StatementPUBKiowa34 min
Sep 3, 8:39 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPUBKiowa81 min
Sep 3, 8:44 PM MDTSpecial Weather StatementPUBPueblo46 min
Sep 3, 8:47 PM MDTSpecial Weather StatementPUBCrowley28 min
Sep 3, 9:15 PM MDTSpecial Weather StatementPUBBent60 min
Sep 3, 9:17 PM MDTSpecial Weather StatementPUBPueblo43 min
Sep 3, 10:03 PM MDTSpecial Weather StatementPUBPueblo42 min
Sep 3, 10:41 PM MDTSpecial Weather StatementPUBProwers49 min
Sep 3, 10:44 PM MDTSpecial Weather StatementPUBOtero46 min
Sep 3, 10:53 PM MDTSpecial Weather StatementPUBProwers37 min
Sep 3, 11:32 PM MDTSpecial Weather StatementPUBBent, Otero43 min
Sep 4, 3:26 PM MDTSpecial Weather StatementPUBEl Paso34 min
Sep 4, 4:36 PM MDTSpecial Weather StatementPUBPueblo24 min
Sep 4, 4:43 PM MDTSpecial Weather StatementPUBEl Paso32 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Colorado, 2021Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.