Flash Flood Watch 8, NWS Phoenix, AZ

017 
WGUS65 KPSR 302300
FFAPSR

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
400 PM MST Mon Aug 30 2021

AZZ532-CAZ560>570-311200-
/O.CON.KPSR.FF.A.0008.210831T1800Z-210901T0900Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Yuma-Joshua Tree NP West-Joshua Tree NP East-Imperial County
Southwest-Salton Sea-Chuckwalla Mountains-Imperial County Southeast-
Imperial County West-Imperial Valley-Chiriaco Summit-Palo Verde
Valley-Chuckwalla Valley-
Including the cities of Cottonwood Visitor, Midland, Salton City, 
Brawley, Yuma, Lost Horse-Keys Village, Palo Verde, Mountain Spring, 
Coolidge Springs, Winona, Chiriaco Summit, Calexico, Blythe, Plaster 
City, Coyote Wells, Ripley, Fortuna Foothills, Martinez Lake, Desert 
Shores, Ocotillo, Alamorio, Imperial Hot Mineral Springs, 
Winterhaven, and El Centro
400 PM MST Mon Aug 30 2021 /400 PM PDT Mon Aug 30 2021/

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of southwest Arizona and California, including the 
  following areas, in southwest Arizona, Yuma. In California, 
  Chiriaco Summit, Chuckwalla Mountains, Chuckwalla Valley, Imperial 
  County Southeast, Imperial County Southwest, Imperial County West, 
  Imperial Valley, Joshua Tree NP East, Joshua Tree NP West, Palo 
  Verde Valley and Salton Sea.

* From Tuesday morning through late Tuesday night.

* Showers and thunderstorms capable of producing flash flooding are 
  expected from late Tuesday morning through late Tuesday night. 
  Rain rates of up to 1-2 inches per hour (briefly higher at times) 
  will likely lead to rapid runoff into washes, small streams, and 
  poor drainage areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action 
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

AZZ530-531-533>563-311200-
/O.CON.KPSR.FF.A.0008.210831T1800Z-210902T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Parker Valley-Kofa-Central La Paz-Aguila Valley-Southeast Yuma
County-Gila River Valley-Northwest Valley-Tonopah Desert-Gila Bend-
Buckeye/Avondale-Cave Creek/New River-Deer Valley-Central Phoenix-
North Phoenix/Glendale-New River Mesa-Scottsdale/Paradise Valley-Rio
Verde/Salt River-East Valley-Fountain Hills/East Mesa-South
Mountain/Ahwatukee-Southeast Valley/Queen Creek-Superior-Northwest
Pinal County-West Pinal County-Apache Junction/Gold Canyon-Tonto
Basin-Mazatzal Mountains-Pinal/Superstition Mountains-Sonoran Desert
Natl Monument-San Carlos-Dripping Springs-Globe/Miami-Southeast Gila
County-
Including the cities of Hassayampa, Superior, Cashion, Gila Bend, 
Coolidge, Paradise Valley, Arlington, Circle City, Harcuvar, 
Tonopah, Hayden, Vicksburg, Gladden, Surprise, Gilbert, Vicksburg 
Junction, Sun City West, San Carlos, Kaka, Sunflower, Phoenix, Queen 
Creek, Goodyear, Peoria, Beardsley, Apache Junction, Scottsdale, 
Wintersburg, Ehrenberg, Sun Lakes, Tortilla Flat, Avondale, Peridot, 
Fountain Hills, Miami, Winkelman, Palm Canyon, Casa Grande, Liberty, 
Chandler, Salome, Mesa, Parker, Quartzsite, Brenda, Globe, Tempe, 
Cactus Forest, Punkin Center, Wickenburg, Sentinel, Aguila, 
Florence, Wittmann, and Ligurta
400 PM MST Mon Aug 30 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of south central Arizona and southwest Arizona, including 
  the following areas, in south central Arizona, Aguila Valley, 
  Apache Junction/Gold Canyon, Buckeye/Avondale, Cave Creek/New 
  River, Central Phoenix, Deer Valley, Dripping Springs, East 
  Valley, Fountain Hills/East Mesa, Gila Bend, Globe/Miami, Mazatzal 
  Mountains, New River Mesa, North Phoenix/Glendale, Northwest Pinal 
  County, Northwest Valley, Pinal/Superstition Mountains, Rio 
  Verde/Salt River, San Carlos, Scottsdale/Paradise Valley, Sonoran 
  Desert Natl Monument, South Mountain/Ahwatukee, Southeast Gila 
  County, Southeast Valley/Queen Creek, Superior, Tonopah Desert, 
  Tonto Basin and West Pinal County. In southwest Arizona, Central 
  La Paz, Gila River Valley, Kofa, Parker Valley and Southeast Yuma 
  County.

* From Tuesday morning through late Wednesday night.

* Showers and thunderstorms capable of producing flash flooding are 
  expected as early as late Tuesday morning and will continue to be 
  possible through Wednesday night. Rain rates of up to 1-2 inches 
  per hour (briefly higher at times) will likely lead to rapid 
  runoff into washes, small streams, and poor drainage areas. Past 
  and recent burn scars will be especially prone to flash flooding.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action 
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

MP

006 
WGUS65 KPSR 310923
FFAPSR

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
223 AM MST Tue Aug 31 2021

AZZ532-CAZ560>570-312130-
/O.CON.KPSR.FF.A.0008.210831T1800Z-210901T0900Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Yuma-Joshua Tree NP West-Joshua Tree NP East-Imperial County
Southwest-Salton Sea-Chuckwalla Mountains-Imperial County Southeast-
Imperial County West-Imperial Valley-Chiriaco Summit-Palo Verde
Valley-Chuckwalla Valley-
Including the cities of Cottonwood Visitor, Midland, Salton City, 
Brawley, Yuma, Lost Horse-Keys Village, Palo Verde, Mountain Spring, 
Coolidge Springs, Winona, Chiriaco Summit, Calexico, Blythe, Plaster 
City, Coyote Wells, Ripley, Fortuna Foothills, Martinez Lake, Desert 
Shores, Ocotillo, Alamorio, Imperial Hot Mineral Springs, 
Winterhaven, and El Centro
223 AM MST Tue Aug 31 2021 /223 AM PDT Tue Aug 31 2021/

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM MST /11 AM PDT/ 
THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of southwest Arizona and California, including the 
  following areas, in southwest Arizona, Yuma. In California, 
  Chiriaco Summit, Chuckwalla Mountains, Chuckwalla Valley, Imperial 
  County Southeast, Imperial County Southwest, Imperial County West, 
  Imperial Valley, Joshua Tree NP East, Joshua Tree NP West, Palo 
  Verde Valley and Salton Sea.

* From 11 AM MST /11 AM PDT/ this morning through late tonight.

* Showers and thunderstorms capable of producing flash flooding are 
  expected late this morning through late tonight. Rain rates of up 
  to 1-2 inches per hour (briefly higher at times) will likely lead 
  to rapid runoff into washes, small streams, and poor drainage 
  areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action 
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

AZZ530-531-533>563-312130-
/O.CON.KPSR.FF.A.0008.210831T1800Z-210902T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Parker Valley-Kofa-Central La Paz-Aguila Valley-Southeast Yuma
County-Gila River Valley-Northwest Valley-Tonopah Desert-Gila Bend-
Buckeye/Avondale-Cave Creek/New River-Deer Valley-Central Phoenix-
North Phoenix/Glendale-New River Mesa-Scottsdale/Paradise Valley-Rio
Verde/Salt River-East Valley-Fountain Hills/East Mesa-South
Mountain/Ahwatukee-Southeast Valley/Queen Creek-Superior-Northwest
Pinal County-West Pinal County-Apache Junction/Gold Canyon-Tonto
Basin-Mazatzal Mountains-Pinal/Superstition Mountains-Sonoran Desert
Natl Monument-San Carlos-Dripping Springs-Globe/Miami-Southeast Gila
County-
Including the cities of Hassayampa, Superior, Cashion, Gila Bend, 
Coolidge, Paradise Valley, Arlington, Circle City, Harcuvar, 
Tonopah, Hayden, Vicksburg, Gladden, Surprise, Gilbert, Vicksburg 
Junction, Sun City West, San Carlos, Kaka, Sunflower, Phoenix, Queen 
Creek, Goodyear, Peoria, Beardsley, Apache Junction, Scottsdale, 
Wintersburg, Ehrenberg, Sun Lakes, Tortilla Flat, Avondale, Peridot, 
Fountain Hills, Miami, Winkelman, Palm Canyon, Casa Grande, Liberty, 
Chandler, Salome, Mesa, Parker, Quartzsite, Brenda, Globe, Tempe, 
Cactus Forest, Punkin Center, Wickenburg, Sentinel, Aguila, 
Florence, Wittmann, and Ligurta
223 AM MST Tue Aug 31 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM MST THIS MORNING 
THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of south central Arizona and southwest Arizona, including 
  the following areas, in south central Arizona, Aguila Valley, 
  Apache Junction/Gold Canyon, Buckeye/Avondale, Cave Creek/New 
  River, Central Phoenix, Deer Valley, Dripping Springs, East 
  Valley, Fountain Hills/East Mesa, Gila Bend, Globe/Miami, Mazatzal 
  Mountains, New River Mesa, North Phoenix/Glendale, Northwest Pinal 
  County, Northwest Valley, Pinal/Superstition Mountains, Rio 
  Verde/Salt River, San Carlos, Scottsdale/Paradise Valley, Sonoran 
  Desert Natl Monument, South Mountain/Ahwatukee, Southeast Gila 
  County, Southeast Valley/Queen Creek, Superior, Tonopah Desert, 
  Tonto Basin and West Pinal County. In southwest Arizona, Central 
  La Paz, Gila River Valley, Kofa, Parker Valley and Southeast Yuma 
  County.

* From 11 AM MST this morning through late Wednesday night.

* Showers and thunderstorms capable of producing flash flooding are 
  expected as early as late this morning and afternoon before 
  becoming even more likely by this evening into the overnight hours 
  on Wednesday. The heavy rainfall threat will continue through late 
  Wednesday night. Rain rates of up to 1-2 inches per hour (briefly 
  higher at times) will likely lead to rapid runoff into washes, 
  small streams, and poor drainage areas. Past and recent burn scars 
  will be especially prone to flash flooding.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action 
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

LJH

512 
WGUS65 KPSR 312026
FFAPSR

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
126 PM MST Tue Aug 31 2021

AZZ532-CAZ560>570-010900-
/O.CON.KPSR.FF.A.0008.000000T0000Z-210901T0900Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Yuma-Joshua Tree NP West-Joshua Tree NP East-Imperial County
Southwest-Salton Sea-Chuckwalla Mountains-Imperial County Southeast-
Imperial County West-Imperial Valley-Chiriaco Summit-Palo Verde
Valley-Chuckwalla Valley-
Including the cities of Cottonwood Visitor, Midland, Salton City, 
Brawley, Yuma, Lost Horse-Keys Village, Palo Verde, Mountain Spring, 
Coolidge Springs, Winona, Chiriaco Summit, Calexico, Blythe, Plaster 
City, Coyote Wells, Ripley, Fortuna Foothills, Martinez Lake, Desert 
Shores, Ocotillo, Alamorio, Imperial Hot Mineral Springs, 
Winterhaven, and El Centro
126 PM MST Tue Aug 31 2021 /126 PM PDT Tue Aug 31 2021/

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of southwest Arizona and California, including the 
  following areas, in southwest Arizona, Yuma. In California, 
  Chiriaco Summit, Chuckwalla Mountains, Chuckwalla Valley, Imperial 
  County Southeast, Imperial County Southwest, Imperial County West, 
  Imperial Valley, Joshua Tree NP East, Joshua Tree NP West, Palo 
  Verde Valley and Salton Sea.

* Through late tonight.

* Scattered showers and thunderstorms capable of producing flash 
  flooding are expected the rest of this afternoon through this 
  evening. Rain rates of up to 1-2 inches per hour (briefly higher 
  at times) will likely lead to rapid runoff into washes, small 
  streams, and poor drainage areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action 
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

AZZ530-531-533>563-011100-
/O.CON.KPSR.FF.A.0008.000000T0000Z-210902T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Parker Valley-Kofa-Central La Paz-Aguila Valley-Southeast Yuma
County-Gila River Valley-Northwest Valley-Tonopah Desert-Gila Bend-
Buckeye/Avondale-Cave Creek/New River-Deer Valley-Central Phoenix-
North Phoenix/Glendale-New River Mesa-Scottsdale/Paradise Valley-Rio
Verde/Salt River-East Valley-Fountain Hills/East Mesa-South
Mountain/Ahwatukee-Southeast Valley/Queen Creek-Superior-Northwest
Pinal County-West Pinal County-Apache Junction/Gold Canyon-Tonto
Basin-Mazatzal Mountains-Pinal/Superstition Mountains-Sonoran Desert
Natl Monument-San Carlos-Dripping Springs-Globe/Miami-Southeast Gila
County-
Including the cities of Hassayampa, Superior, Cashion, Gila Bend, 
Coolidge, Paradise Valley, Arlington, Circle City, Harcuvar, 
Tonopah, Hayden, Vicksburg, Gladden, Surprise, Gilbert, Vicksburg 
Junction, Sun City West, San Carlos, Kaka, Sunflower, Phoenix, Queen 
Creek, Goodyear, Peoria, Beardsley, Apache Junction, Scottsdale, 
Wintersburg, Ehrenberg, Sun Lakes, Tortilla Flat, Avondale, Peridot, 
Fountain Hills, Miami, Winkelman, Palm Canyon, Casa Grande, Liberty, 
Chandler, Salome, Mesa, Parker, Quartzsite, Brenda, Globe, Tempe, 
Cactus Forest, Punkin Center, Wickenburg, Sentinel, Aguila, 
Florence, Wittmann, and Ligurta
126 PM MST Tue Aug 31 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY 
NIGHT...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of south central Arizona and southwest Arizona, including 
  the following areas, in south central Arizona, Aguila Valley, 
  Apache Junction/Gold Canyon, Buckeye/Avondale, Cave Creek/New 
  River, Central Phoenix, Deer Valley, Dripping Springs, East 
  Valley, Fountain Hills/East Mesa, Gila Bend, Globe/Miami, Mazatzal 
  Mountains, New River Mesa, North Phoenix/Glendale, Northwest Pinal 
  County, Northwest Valley, Pinal/Superstition Mountains, Rio 
  Verde/Salt River, San Carlos, Scottsdale/Paradise Valley, Sonoran 
  Desert Natl Monument, South Mountain/Ahwatukee, Southeast Gila 
  County, Southeast Valley/Queen Creek, Superior, Tonopah Desert, 
  Tonto Basin and West Pinal County. In southwest Arizona, Central 
  La Paz, Gila River Valley, Kofa, Parker Valley and Southeast Yuma 
  County.

* Through late Wednesday night.

* Scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms capable of 
  producing flash flooding are expected this afternoon through 
  Wednesday. Timing of heaviest rainfall expected Wednesday morning. 
  Rain rates of up to 1-2 inches per hour (briefly higher at times) 
  will likely lead to rapid runoff into washes, small streams, and 
  poor drainage areas. Past and recent burn scars will be especially 
  prone to flash flooding.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action 
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

SDB

242 
WGUS65 KPSR 010807
FFAPSR

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
107 AM MST Wed Sep 1 2021

AZZ530-531-535-536-539-559-010915-
/O.CAN.KPSR.FF.A.0008.000000T0000Z-210902T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Parker Valley-Kofa-Southeast Yuma County-Gila River Valley-Gila Bend-
Sonoran Desert Natl Monument-
Including the cities of Parker, Kaka, Palm Canyon, Ehrenberg, Gila 
Bend, Sentinel, and Ligurta
107 AM MST Wed Sep 1 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

The Flash Flood Watch for portions of south central Arizona and 
southwest Arizona, including the following areas, in south central 
Arizona, Gila Bend and Sonoran Desert Natl Monument. In southwest 
Arizona, Gila River Valley, Kofa, Parker Valley and Southeast Yuma 
County has been cancelled.

The threat for heavy rain has decreased, therefore the Flash Flood 
Watch is cancelled.

$$

AZZ532-CAZ560>570-010915-
/O.CAN.KPSR.FF.A.0008.000000T0000Z-210901T0900Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Yuma-Joshua Tree NP West-Joshua Tree NP East-Imperial County
Southwest-Salton Sea-Chuckwalla Mountains-Imperial County Southeast-
Imperial County West-Imperial Valley-Chiriaco Summit-Palo Verde
Valley-Chuckwalla Valley-
Including the cities of Cottonwood Visitor, Midland, Salton City, 
Brawley, Yuma, Lost Horse-Keys Village, Palo Verde, Mountain Spring, 
Coolidge Springs, Winona, Chiriaco Summit, Calexico, Blythe, Plaster 
City, Coyote Wells, Ripley, Fortuna Foothills, Martinez Lake, Desert 
Shores, Ocotillo, Alamorio, Imperial Hot Mineral Springs, 
Winterhaven, and El Centro
107 AM MST Wed Sep 1 2021 /107 AM PDT Wed Sep 1 2021/

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

The Flash Flood Watch for portions of southwest Arizona and 
California, including the following areas, in southwest Arizona, 
Yuma. In California, Chiriaco Summit, Chuckwalla Mountains, 
Chuckwalla Valley, Imperial County Southeast, Imperial County 
Southwest, Imperial County West, Imperial Valley, Joshua Tree NP 
East, Joshua Tree NP West, Palo Verde Valley and Salton Sea has been 
cancelled.

The threat for additional heavy rain has decreased therefore the 
Flash Flood Watch is cancelled. Please continue to heed remaining 
road closures.

$$

AZZ533-534-537-538-540>558-560>563-012115-
/O.CON.KPSR.FF.A.0008.000000T0000Z-210902T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Central La Paz-Aguila Valley-Northwest Valley-Tonopah Desert-
Buckeye/Avondale-Cave Creek/New River-Deer Valley-Central Phoenix-
North Phoenix/Glendale-New River Mesa-Scottsdale/Paradise Valley-Rio
Verde/Salt River-East Valley-Fountain Hills/East Mesa-South
Mountain/Ahwatukee-Southeast Valley/Queen Creek-Superior-Northwest
Pinal County-West Pinal County-Apache Junction/Gold Canyon-Tonto
Basin-Mazatzal Mountains-Pinal/Superstition Mountains-San Carlos-
Dripping Springs-Globe/Miami-Southeast Gila County-
Including the cities of Hassayampa, Superior, Cashion, Coolidge, 
Sunflower, Arlington, Circle City, Harcuvar, Tonopah, Hayden, 
Vicksburg, Gladden, Surprise, Gilbert, Goodyear, Sun City West, San 
Carlos, Phoenix, Winkelman, Vicksburg Junction, Peoria, Beardsley, 
Apache Junction, Scottsdale, Wintersburg, Queen Creek, Sun Lakes, 
Tortilla Flat, Avondale, Peridot, Fountain Hills, Miami, Salome, 
Liberty, Chandler, Paradise Valley, Mesa, Quartzsite, Brenda, Globe, 
Tempe, Cactus Forest, Punkin Center, Wickenburg, Casa Grande, 
Aguila, Florence, and Wittmann
107 AM MST Wed Sep 1 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 5 AM THURSDAY...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of south central Arizona and southwest Arizona, including 
  the following areas, in south central Arizona, Aguila Valley, 
  Apache Junction/Gold Canyon, Buckeye/Avondale, Cave Creek/New 
  River, Central Phoenix, Deer Valley, Dripping Springs, East 
  Valley, Fountain Hills/East Mesa, Globe/Miami, Mazatzal Mountains, 
  New River Mesa, North Phoenix/Glendale, Northwest Pinal County, 
  Northwest Valley, Pinal/Superstition Mountains, Rio Verde/Salt 
  River, San Carlos, Scottsdale/Paradise Valley, South 
  Mountain/Ahwatukee, Southeast Gila County, Southeast Valley/Queen 
  Creek, Superior, Tonopah Desert, Tonto Basin and West Pinal 
  County. In southwest Arizona, Central La Paz.

* Through late tonight.

* Scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms capable of 
  producing flash flooding are possible Wednesday night. Rain rates 
  of up to 1-2 inches per hour (briefly higher at times) will likely 
  lead to rapid runoff into washes, small streams, and poor drainage 
  areas. Past and recent burn scars will be especially prone to 
  flash flooding.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action 
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

Iniguez

164 
WGUS65 KPSR 012140
FFAPSR

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
240 PM MST Wed Sep 1 2021

AZZ533-534-537-538-540>558-560>563-020545-
/O.CON.KPSR.FF.A.0008.000000T0000Z-210902T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Central La Paz-Aguila Valley-Northwest Valley-Tonopah Desert-
Buckeye/Avondale-Cave Creek/New River-Deer Valley-Central Phoenix-
North Phoenix/Glendale-New River Mesa-Scottsdale/Paradise Valley-Rio
Verde/Salt River-East Valley-Fountain Hills/East Mesa-South
Mountain/Ahwatukee-Southeast Valley/Queen Creek-Superior-Northwest
Pinal County-West Pinal County-Apache Junction/Gold Canyon-Tonto
Basin-Mazatzal Mountains-Pinal/Superstition Mountains-San Carlos-
Dripping Springs-Globe/Miami-Southeast Gila County-
Including the cities of Hassayampa, Superior, Cashion, Coolidge, 
Sunflower, Arlington, Circle City, Harcuvar, Tonopah, Hayden, 
Vicksburg, Gladden, Surprise, Gilbert, Goodyear, Sun City West, San 
Carlos, Phoenix, Winkelman, Vicksburg Junction, Peoria, Beardsley, 
Apache Junction, Scottsdale, Wintersburg, Queen Creek, Sun Lakes, 
Tortilla Flat, Avondale, Peridot, Fountain Hills, Miami, Salome, 
Liberty, Chandler, Paradise Valley, Mesa, Quartzsite, Brenda, Globe, 
Tempe, Cactus Forest, Punkin Center, Wickenburg, Casa Grande, 
Aguila, Florence, and Wittmann
240 PM MST Wed Sep 1 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of south central Arizona and southwest Arizona, including 
  the following areas, in south central Arizona, Aguila Valley, 
  Apache Junction/Gold Canyon, Buckeye/Avondale, Cave Creek/New 
  River, Central Phoenix, Deer Valley, Dripping Springs, East 
  Valley, Fountain Hills/East Mesa, Globe/Miami, Mazatzal Mountains, 
  New River Mesa, North Phoenix/Glendale, Northwest Pinal County, 
  Northwest Valley, Pinal/Superstition Mountains, Rio Verde/Salt 
  River, San Carlos, Scottsdale/Paradise Valley, South 
  Mountain/Ahwatukee, Southeast Gila County, Southeast Valley/Queen 
  Creek, Superior, Tonopah Desert, Tonto Basin and West Pinal 
  County. In southwest Arizona, Central La Paz.

* Through late tonight.

* Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be capable of producing 
  localized rainfall amounts exceeding 1.00 inches per hour.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action 
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

AD

827 
WGUS65 KPSR 020752
FFAPSR

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
1252 AM MST Thu Sep 2 2021

AZZ533-534-537-538-540>544-546-548-550-551-553-554-563-020900-
/O.CAN.KPSR.FF.A.0008.000000T0000Z-210902T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Central La Paz-Aguila Valley-Northwest Valley-Tonopah Desert-
Buckeye/Avondale-Cave Creek/New River-Deer Valley-Central Phoenix-
North Phoenix/Glendale-Scottsdale/Paradise Valley-East Valley-South
Mountain/Ahwatukee-Southeast Valley/Queen Creek-Northwest Pinal
County-West Pinal County-Southeast Gila County-
Including the cities of Hassayampa, Cashion, Coolidge, Arlington, 
Circle City, Harcuvar, Tonopah, Vicksburg, Gladden, Surprise, 
Gilbert, Goodyear, Sun City West, Phoenix, Vicksburg Junction, 
Peoria, Beardsley, Scottsdale, Wintersburg, Queen Creek, Sun Lakes, 
Avondale, Salome, Liberty, Chandler, Paradise Valley, Mesa, 
Quartzsite, Brenda, Tempe, Cactus Forest, Wickenburg, Casa Grande, 
Aguila, Florence, and Wittmann
1252 AM MST Thu Sep 2 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

The Flash Flood Watch for portions of south central Arizona and 
southwest Arizona, including the following areas, in south central 
Arizona, Aguila Valley, Buckeye/Avondale, Cave Creek/New River, 
Central Phoenix, Deer Valley, East Valley, North Phoenix/Glendale, 
Northwest Pinal County, Northwest Valley, Scottsdale/Paradise 
Valley, South Mountain/Ahwatukee, Southeast Gila County, Southeast 
Valley/Queen Creek, Tonopah Desert and West Pinal County. In 
southwest Arizona, Central La Paz has been cancelled.

While showers and thunderstorms will remain possible tonight, the 
threat for widespread heavy rain has decreased. Therefore the Flood 
Watch is cancelled.

$$

AZZ545-547-549-552-555>558-560>562-021700-
/O.EXT.KPSR.FF.A.0008.000000T0000Z-210902T1700Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
New River Mesa-Rio Verde/Salt River-Fountain Hills/East Mesa-
Superior-Apache Junction/Gold Canyon-Tonto Basin-Mazatzal Mountains-
Pinal/Superstition Mountains-San Carlos-Dripping Springs-Globe/Miami-
Including the cities of San Carlos, Superior, Fountain Hills, 
Sunflower, Hayden, Miami, Globe, Winkelman, Apache Junction, Punkin 
Center, Tortilla Flat, and Peridot
1252 AM MST Thu Sep 2 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM MST THIS MORNING...

The Flash Flood Watch is now in effect for

* A portion of south central Arizona, including the following areas, 
  Apache Junction/Gold Canyon, Dripping Springs, Fountain Hills/East 
  Mesa, Globe/Miami, Mazatzal Mountains, New River Mesa, 
  Pinal/Superstition Mountains, Rio Verde/Salt River, San Carlos, 
  Superior and Tonto Basin.

* Until 10 AM MST this morning.

* Showers and thunderstorms will continue through this morning. 
  Areas of one to two inches of rain will be possible, with isolated 
  higher amounts, which may lead to flash flooding especially within 
  recent burn scars.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action 
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

Iniguez

667 
WGUS65 KPSR 021634
FFAPSR

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
934 AM MST Thu Sep 2 2021

AZZ545-547-549-552-555>558-560>562-021745-
/O.EXP.KPSR.FF.A.0008.000000T0000Z-210902T1700Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
New River Mesa-Rio Verde/Salt River-Fountain Hills/East Mesa-
Superior-Apache Junction/Gold Canyon-Tonto Basin-Mazatzal Mountains-
Pinal/Superstition Mountains-San Carlos-Dripping Springs-Globe/Miami-
Including the cities of San Carlos, Superior, Fountain Hills, 
Sunflower, Hayden, Miami, Globe, Winkelman, Apache Junction, Punkin 
Center, Tortilla Flat, and Peridot
934 AM MST Thu Sep 2 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL EXPIRE AT 10 AM MST THIS MORNING...

The Flash Flood Watch for a portion of south central Arizona, 
including the following areas, Apache Junction/Gold Canyon, Dripping 
Springs, Fountain Hills/East Mesa, Globe/Miami, Mazatzal Mountains, 
New River Mesa, Pinal/Superstition Mountains, Rio Verde/Salt River, 
San Carlos, Superior and Tonto Basin will expire at 10 AM MST this 
morning.

The Flood Watch is cancelled. Flooding is no longer expected to pose 
a threat. Please continue to heed remaining road closures.

$$

AD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
1050 PM MST Sun Aug 29 2021

.UPDATE...
Updated 06Z aviation discussion.

.SYNOPSIS...
The best storm chances will continue to favor higher terrain
areas through Monday, but some isolated showers or storms and
gusty winds could impact the lower deserts. Very warm conditions
will remain across the region through Monday, but with highs
lowering to near normal by Monday. Attention then turns toward an
influx of tropical moisture into the region starting Tuesday with
shower and storm chances increasing starting Tuesday afternoon. A
threat for heavy rainfall and localized flooding should then
affect portions of southern and central Arizona for Wednesday,
possibly lasting into Thursday. Below normal temperatures are also
expected for the latter half of the coming week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A persistent band of showers and storms, with moderate to heavy
rainfall, developed this morning near Yuma and lasted into the
early afternoon. The rain-cooled air and cloud cover through
these areas will likely keep temperatures from reaching excessive
levels this afternoon. Whereas, areas in southeast CA and
southwest AZ with more sunshine are likely to still reach highs up
to 110-113F. Temperatures through south-central AZ are expected
to be a few degrees warmer than yesterday with highs in the mid to
upper 100s.

In regards to storm chances through the rest of this afternoon,
objective analysis shows the greatest moisture and instability
being in the Lower Colorado River Valley, with MLCAPE up to
1000-1500 J/kg, and marginal instability across the rest of the
CWA. There is still a considerable amount of CIN analyzed across
the lower deserts, with ACARS soundings in Phoenix showing roughly
-150 to -200 J/kg. This should greatly limit convection over the
 lower deserts as long as it hold. With the cap over the lower
 deserts, most convection is expected to develop over higher
 terrain of northern and eastern AZ, as well JTNP in southeast CA
 and portions of La Paz county. Mid level lapse rates are steep,
 increasing to the north, with 8 C/km and above in northern AZ.
 So, there is potential for robust updrafts with strong storms and
 perhaps a few severe storms this afternoon. With high DCAPE, up
 to 1500 J/kg, damaging outflow winds will be the primary threat.
 As outflows translate to lower elevations blowing dust will be a
 threat (especially in areas that have not seen recent extensive
 flora growth). New storm development from outflows will be
 possible through the evening, dependent on the strength of the
 cap. Forecast soundings in Phoenix show the cap holding through
 the rest of this afternoon, however lingering elevated
 convection, above the boundary layer, late this evening cannot be
 ruled out.

Nora has been downgraded to a tropical storm this afternoon with a
center on the Mexico coastline near the mouth of the Gulf of
California. The latest track from the NHC keeps the central
circulation along the Mexico coastline with a gradual weakening.
The circulation from Nora is still not expected to be a threat to
our area, with it more likely becoming an open wave within the
steering flow before reaching the US border. Tropical moisture
associated with Nora advecting into the Desert Southwest and
leading to scattered to widespread rain remains the primary
threat. Steering flow begins shifting more southerly to
southeasterly in our region Monday as the anticyclone that has
been positioned over northern AZ slides east. Moisture increase
into the region will initially be gradual Monday. 12Z HREF is
suggesting Monday afternoon will be slightly more active than
today with a subtle increase in instability, but still with most
showers and storms favoring higher terrain. NBM PoPs climb to
20-30% across the lower deserts Monday afternoon as there will be
a slightly better chance for storms to survive to lower elevations
over today.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Tropical moisture will continue to stream northward into our
region on Tuesday, likely creating a more unstable environment for
further chances for some stronger storms. The steering flow will
turn southerly on Tuesday and vertical ascent fields should still
be weak with an upper level jet max to our southwest. Given that
MUCAPE is likely to increase to above 1000 J/kg and there is no
obvious strong capping inversion, we should have some scattered
afternoon storms Tuesday with gusty winds, heavy rainfall, and
flooding all potential threats.

Models are still showing late Tuesday night through Wednesday
evening as being the prime time for an area of moderate to heavy
rainfall to impact southern and central Arizona, possibly centered
initially over the Phoenix area. The ingredients for heavy
rainfall should be in place as PWATs are forecast to increase to
around 2" across much of south-central Arizona and vertical ascent
may become quite strong over central Arizona. A band (not sure
how wide) of moderate to heavy rain is likely to develop by
Wednesday morning within the increasing southerly upslope low
level flow and within the right rear quadrant of the 60-70kt upper
level jet positioned across southern California into the Great
Basin. Warming aloft will eventually weaken instability on
Wednesday, so the likely threats should completely shift over to
heavy rain and flooding across south-central Arizona and then into
eastern Arizona later Wednesday into early Thursday as the band
is likely to slowly drift eastward. A Flash Flood Watch will
likely be needed for portions of the area during the middle part
of this week. WPC forecast QPF amounts show the heaviest rainfall
focused across Pima and Maricopa Counties, and areas to the north
of Phoenix with a large swatch of 1.25-1.75" of potential rainfall.
Some areas are likely to exceed those amounts, especially in the
more favored upslope foothills areas just north of Phoenix.
Although models have been consistent with showing the heaviest
rainfall falling over south-central Arizona, some east or westward
shift is still possible.

Considerable forecast uncertainty is then seen for Thursday into
Friday with some ensemble members ending rain chances fairly
quickly across the western deserts and maybe as far east as the
Phoenix area. However, other members show a continued chance of
showers and storms through next weekend with moisture remaining in
place over much of the region. For now, the NBM favors the drier
solution. Temperatures will for sure take a big hit into the
middle part of this week with highs likely falling to 10-15
degrees below normal in some areas through Thursday. Temperatures
are then likely to gradually warm up going into next weekend, but
below normal readings are still favored.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 0550Z

South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:
Convective outflows this evening continue to be the main aviation
impact, along with isolated thunderstorms developing along an
outflow that has moved into the Phoenix area from the SE at this
hour. latest high-res model output is indicating these isolated
storms continuing for the next 2-3 hours before dissipating/moving
off to the west. Once the storms dissipate, expecting lighter
southeasterly winds to prevail the the rest of the night and into
Monday morning.

A more typical switch to westerly winds is anticipated on Monday
afternoon. Monday evening appears it will be more active
convectivewise, with at least a good chance of significant outflows
from the east of northeast moving to the Phoenix area along for a
better chance for TS at one or more of the TAF sites (20-30%). Cloud
bases should remain elevated above 10-12 kft aside from lower
ceilings down to 8 kft in storms. TS activity is expected to
diminish by late evening Monday with winds becoming more typical
easterly through the remainder of Monday night.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
Winds at KIPL to remain from a south-southeasterly direction thru
early-mid afternoon on Monday. Winds appear that they will become
southwesterly for a time during the late afternoon/early evening
hours on Monday as outflows from TS over the higher terrain of
northern Baja impact the region. At this point, given the
uncertainty of whether or not these storms will actually impact the
terminal, decided to just go with VCSH to reflect to possibility o
nearby showers/TS. At KBLH, after a rather quiet period of southerly
winds through the remainder of tonight and much of Monday, there
appears that there is a good likelihood of showers/TS developing
well off to the northeast of the terminal. It appears that at least
an outflow from these storms will bring gusty winds and some blowing
dust to the terminal, with an outside (20-30%) chance that storms
will directly impact the terminal, thus have included VCSH in the
TAF to reflect this possibility.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Tuesday through Saturday:
Elevated moisture levels from an influx of tropical moisture will
bring very good rain chances across the region through at least
Thursday. Heavy rainfall and flooding may impact area burn scars,
particularly Wednesday into Thursday. Much cooler conditions will
also move into the region with highs dropping well below normal
starting Wednesday. The increased moisture and cooler temperatures
will keep minimum RHs mainly above 40% for much of the period
before some gradual drying occurs Friday into Saturday. Winds
should be relatively light with an afternoon upslope component and
overnight drainage expected for a good portion of next week, but
southerly winds are also likely to be seen a bit more than
typical.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotters should follow standard reporting procedures.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MST this evening for
     AZZ530>533-535-536.

CA...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM PDT this evening for
     CAZ560>570.

&&

DISCUSSION...Benedict
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Kuhlman
AVIATION...Percha/Rogers
FIRE WEATHER...Kuhlman