Special Weather Statement, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1209 PM EDT Wed Jul 28 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will settle just offshore of the region today,
with weak high pressure building in. A much stronger cold front will
move through the area late Thursday into Friday. Strong high
pressure then follows for Friday and Saturday. Another cold front
will likely move through Sunday or Sunday night, with high pressure
following for the start of the new week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The cold front has moved south of the area. Low level thermal
profiles cool today with 850 MB temperatures falling from 18/19
degrees C to 13/14 degrees C. PWATs will also fall from ~1.5"
to around 1.3". Across northern NJ this afternoon PWATs will
actually fall below 1" with 1.5" towards southern DE. The dry
air does again appear to be weighted towards the mid and upper
levels of the atmosphere though. 500/300 MB RH continues to be
advertised around 20% this afternoon.

Surface high pressure will quickly head east this afternoon,
allowing a synoptically enhanced sea breeze to move inland. This
inland moving boundary has been the impetus the last several CAM
runs for convective initiation. Comparing forecast soundings for
this afternoon between different CAMs and different initialization
times has shown that the low PWAT air is forecast to get slightly
further south than previously forecast. This means that the chance
of precipitation today doesn't look as great as it previously did.
The overall thinking is for any updrafts that get started will
likely struggle to puncture through the mid-level dry air. As such,
prolonged updraft maintenance across the coastal plain of NJ is
unlikely. Have scaled back PoPs to account for this.

Regarding high temperatures today, the lower 850 MB temperatures
will likely support 3 to 5 degrees lower than yesterday in most
locations. The main exception to this will be the eastern shore of
MD where little in the way of low level CAA is forecast, along with
little in the way of relief of the inland moving sea breeze. Most
locations will observe highs in the mid to upper 80s, around 90
across central and southern DE (away from DE Bay), and 90 to
low 90s across the eastern shore of MD. The cool spot will be
across the Poconos with temperatures in the upper 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
One of the more difficult warm season forecasts in recent memory for
Thursday, with reasonable outcomes ranging from a largely uneventful
day to a fairly high end severe weather event. Synoptically,
northwest flow aloft continues. Surface low pressure is expected to
track eastward through the Great Lakes in response to a
southeastward digging shortwave propagating through the 50 to 60 kt
500 mb flow. Meanwhile, a convectively enhanced wave will likely
dive southwest of us on Thursday. This wave will result from
explosive convective development and likely derecho formation over
the Midwest on Wednesday. This MCS/derecho will probably not be much
of a factor for our region, either tracking southwest of us and/or
not surviving this far in severe form. The SPC SWODY1 does extend a
Marginal Risk into our Delmarva zones on the off chance it does make
it all the way to the coast. This feature may also serve to deposit
convective debris over our region, which would limit instability for
new convection on Thursday. However, anvil level storm relative
winds suggest this is unlikely, and that much of the convective
debris will probably be shunted south of us. But the evolution of
Wednesday's convection and potential lingering debris and/or outflow
boundaries will no doubt have some impact on Thursday.

Another complicating factor is much of the guidance indicating
fairly widespread but likely non-severe convection over our region
on Thursday morning and early afternoon. This is likely in response
to retreating high pressure, combined with surface convergence and
increased low level moisture in response to a shift to southeasterly
flow. This type of weakly forced convection is common in these
regimes, and is a common failure mode for severe weather events. If
early day convection is as widespread as much of the guidance
indicates, I would be doubtful of the afternoon severe potential,
especially in eastern portions of the area, even as the better
forcing from the approaching mid-level jet and vorticity max arrives.

With those caveats mentioned, the dynamics on Thursday are no doubt
impressive, unlike any we've seen this year in terms of the
potential overlap of instability, shear, and forcing if everything
comes together right. 28.0z CAM guidance largely clobbers the region
with severe convection Thursday afternoon and evening, but run-to-
run consistency has been poor. Should several of those 0z CAM
solutions (i.e. 3km NAM, ARW) and their associated forecast
soundings come to pass, then a significant severe weather event with
all severe hazards would be likely. The Storm Prediction Center has
added a Slight Risk of severe weather over much of the region. Feel
that is very reasonable at this stage, and highly recommend
referencing the SWODY2 discussion for additional information. We
should stress again that confidence in the details of the Thursday
forecast is low, but encourage all users to monitor the forecast due
to both the uncertainty and the higher than normal potential threat
level if all factors were to come together.

While the Thursday forecast remains highly uncertain, latest trends
are promising for Friday. It appears as though regardless of how
Thursday unfolds, the strong cold front we've been awaiting for the
late week period, associated with the Great Lakes low mentioned
above, will be offshore by Friday morning. This will put us into a
cold and dry advection regime for Friday, with steady and
potentially even gusty northwest winds given the unseasonably strong
gradient around the back side of this system. This should result in
plenty of sunshine for Friday, highs near to a bit below seasonable
levels, and a notable drop in humidity especially in the afternoon.
Overnight lows should drop well into the 50s outside the urban
centers, even some 40s in the Poconos! A noticeable chill to the air
is likely, offering a reminder that meteorological fall is barely a
month away.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Overview...

Eastern US troughing headlines the pattern for the weekend and into
early next week. Cooler and largely much drier than normal weather
for this time of year is likely to prevail as a result. Saturday in
particular looks very dry as we remain in a post-frontal air mass.
One frontal system will likely affect the area on or near Sunday,
but looks to be a progressive system with renewed drier air to
follow. Early indications are for a potential shift back to a more
humid pattern towards the middle of next week. Overall, should be a
nice break from active weather for the extended period, with no
significant hazards expected.

Dailies...

Saturday-Saturday night... By Saturday, the cold front from Friday
will be well offshore, and we'll be squarely within the dry post-
frontal air mass. Saturday will have an early fall feel, with a cool
start followed by highs only rising into the upper 70s and low 80s.
Dew points in the low 50s are forecast, very low for the season. It
should be a spectacular day. Overnight, winds shift to a more
southerly direction and start to draw in a bit more moisture, which
will help keep the lows a bit warmer than the prior night, upper 50s
and low 60s.

Sunday-Sunday night... The one hiccup for the long term period
likely comes on Sunday. Robust shortwave troughing digs into the
Great Lakes by early Sunday, spurring downstream surface low
development. As mentioned, surface flow will be turning southerly
ahead of this system by Saturday night, which will continue into
Sunday. Not enough fetch or duration of the return flow to make
Sunday oppressively humid by any means, but the dew points will come
up considerably over Saturday, with temperatures also rising.
Consensus timing indicates the cold front associated with the
strengthening low will arrive late Sunday afternoon or evening.
Ahead of it, scattered convection is probable. With moisture still
being relatively poor, instability will not be very strong. However,
with decent shear and forcing, certainly can't rule out a strong to
severe storm especially if frontal timing works out favorably. The
front should push offshore of the region overnight.

Monday-Tuesday... Behind Sunday's front, another unseasonably dry
air mass should move in, with temperatures also running a few
degrees below average. There is some uncertainty with the timing of
the front and whether it could potentially linger overhead or just
offshore into Monday. However, indications are quite strong that
this will be another progressive front which departs pretty quickly.
So we should get back into drier and cooler than average air on
Monday, which will likely linger into Tuesday. Beyond that time,
there are hints we could transition back to a muggier pattern with
more frequent shower and storm chances as the western Atlantic ridge
strengthens.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today...Prevailing VFR. Light northerly winds will veer from
the east as a synoptically enhanced seabreeze moves inland.
Previous model runs for this afternoon exhibited a slightly more
moist sounding profile than the latest 00z guidance. As a
result the chance of showers and thunderstorms doesn't look as
good today as it did before. KMIV and KACY will have the
greatest chance, and it looks low end, of observing a shower
and/or thunderstorm. As the wind shift moves inland, the chance
of precipitation will fall. Moderate confidence.

Tonight...VFR conditions initially with MVFR cigs and
visibilities possible late. These lower cigs will be contingent
on a lack of morning showers though, and retreating high
pressure does look to provide a weak convergent zone near the
fall line. Given this, have gone ahead and added a VCSH in for
early Thursday morning and left the cigs VFR. Light east to
southeast winds. Moderate confidence.

Outlook...

Thursday-Thursday night... Prevailing VFR. However, multiple rounds
of scattered to widespread showers and tstms are likely which could
bring periods of restrictions to most or all of the terminals. Winds
gradually shifting from southeast to southwest on Thursday, then
northwest overnight, with prevailing speeds 5 to 10 kt. However,
stronger and erratic winds are likely in and near tstms. Low
confidence in details.

Friday-Friday night... VFR. Northwest wind 5 to 10 kt with gusts to
20 kt during the day Friday. High confidence.

Saturday-Saturday night... VFR. Light west-northwest winds with
coastal sea breezes on Saturday, becoming light and variable or
light southwest overnight. High confidence.

Sunday-Sunday night... Prevailing VFR. Scattered showers and tstms
may bring restrictions mainly Sunday afternoon and evening.
Southwest wind 5 to 10 kt shifting to northwest overnight. Moderate
confidence.

&&

.MARINE...
Today... Sub-SCA conditions are expected. High pressure located
across NY will slide east today with northerly winds slowly veering
from the east over the waters. Generally, winds will be 10 to 15 kts
with gusts around 20 kts. Seas 2 to 3 feet.

Outlook...

Thursday-Thursday night... Sub-SCA conditions expected. Winds
gradually shifting from southeast to southwest to west at 10 to 15
kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Tstms are possible mainly during the afternoon
and evening. Higher winds and seas likely in and near tstms.

Friday-Friday night... Mainly sub-SCA conditions expected. Northwest
winds 10 to 15 kt, with some gusts near to above 20 kt possible
Friday afternoon and evening. Seas 3 to 4 ft.

Saturday-Sunday... Sub-SCA conditions expected. North winds 5 to 10
kt early Saturday, becoming light and variable, then south-southwest
at around 10 kt for Saturday evening, night, and into Sunday. Seas 2
to 3 ft. Scattered showers and tstms possible Sunday afternoon and
evening.

Rip Currents...

With generally light winds and seas, the risk for the formation of
dangerous rip currents is expected to remain low for New Jersey and
Delaware through Thursday.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

Synopsis...O'Brien
Near Term...Haines/Kruzdlo
Short Term...O'Brien
Long Term...O'Brien
Aviation...Haines/O'Brien/Kruzdlo
Marine...Haines/O'Brien

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1058 AM EDT Wed Jul 28 2021

DEZ001-291458-
New Castle-
1058 AM EDT Wed Jul 28 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for New Castle County in Delaware.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

There is a low probability of widespread hazardous weather.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

DEZ002-291458-
Kent-
1058 AM EDT Wed Jul 28 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Kent County in Delaware.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

DEZ003-291458-
Inland Sussex-
1058 AM EDT Wed Jul 28 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for inland portions of Sussex County
in Delaware.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

DEZ004-291458-
Delaware Beaches-
1058 AM EDT Wed Jul 28 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Atlantic coastal portions of
Sussex County in Delaware.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

PAZ054-291458-
Carbon-
1058 AM EDT Wed Jul 28 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Carbon County in Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

There is a low probability of widespread hazardous weather.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

PAZ055-291458-
Monroe-
1058 AM EDT Wed Jul 28 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Monroe County in Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

There is a low probability of widespread hazardous weather.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

PAZ060-291458-
Berks-
1058 AM EDT Wed Jul 28 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Berks County in Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

There is a low probability of widespread hazardous weather.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

PAZ061-291458-
Lehigh-
1058 AM EDT Wed Jul 28 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Lehigh County in Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

There is a low probability of widespread hazardous weather.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

PAZ062-291458-
Northampton-
1058 AM EDT Wed Jul 28 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Northampton County in
Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

There is a low probability of widespread hazardous weather.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

PAZ070-291458-
Delaware-
1058 AM EDT Wed Jul 28 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Delaware County in Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

There is a low probability of widespread hazardous weather.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

PAZ071-291458-
Philadelphia-
1058 AM EDT Wed Jul 28 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Philadelphia County in
Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

There is a low probability of widespread hazardous weather.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

PAZ101-291458-
Western Chester-
1058 AM EDT Wed Jul 28 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western Chester County in
Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

There is a low probability of widespread hazardous weather.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

PAZ102-291458-
Eastern Chester-
1058 AM EDT Wed Jul 28 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern Chester County in
Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

There is a low probability of widespread hazardous weather.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

PAZ103-291458-
Western Montgomery-
1058 AM EDT Wed Jul 28 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western Montgomery County in
Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

There is a low probability of widespread hazardous weather.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

PAZ104-291458-
Eastern Montgomery-
1058 AM EDT Wed Jul 28 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern Montgomery County in
Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

There is a low probability of widespread hazardous weather.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

PAZ105-291458-
Upper Bucks-
1058 AM EDT Wed Jul 28 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for upper Bucks County in
Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

There is a low probability of widespread hazardous weather.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

PAZ106-291458-
Lower Bucks-
1058 AM EDT Wed Jul 28 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for lower Bucks County in
Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

There is a low probability of widespread hazardous weather.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

NJZ001-291458-
Sussex-
1058 AM EDT Wed Jul 28 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Sussex County in New Jersey.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

There is a low probability of widespread hazardous weather.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

NJZ007-291458-
Warren-
1058 AM EDT Wed Jul 28 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Warren County in New Jersey.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

There is a low probability of widespread hazardous weather.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

NJZ008-291458-
Morris-
1058 AM EDT Wed Jul 28 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Morris County in New Jersey.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

There is a low probability of widespread hazardous weather.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

NJZ009-291458-
Hunterdon-
1058 AM EDT Wed Jul 28 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Hunterdon County in New Jersey.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

There is a low probability of widespread hazardous weather.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

NJZ010-291458-
Somerset-
1058 AM EDT Wed Jul 28 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Somerset County in New Jersey.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

There is a low probability of widespread hazardous weather.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

NJZ012-291458-
Middlesex-
1058 AM EDT Wed Jul 28 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Middlesex County in New Jersey.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

There is a low probability of widespread hazardous weather.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

NJZ013-291458-
Western Monmouth-
1058 AM EDT Wed Jul 28 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western Monmouth County in New
Jersey.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

There is a low probability of widespread hazardous weather.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

NJZ014-291458-
Eastern Monmouth-
1058 AM EDT Wed Jul 28 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern Monmouth County in New
Jersey.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

There is a low probability of widespread hazardous weather.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

NJZ015-291458-
Mercer-
1058 AM EDT Wed Jul 28 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Mercer County in New Jersey.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

There is a low probability of widespread hazardous weather.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

NJZ016-291458-
Salem-
1058 AM EDT Wed Jul 28 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Salem County in New Jersey.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

There is a low probability of widespread hazardous weather.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

NJZ017-291458-
Gloucester-
1058 AM EDT Wed Jul 28 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Gloucester County in New Jersey.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

There is a low probability of widespread hazardous weather.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

NJZ018-291458-
Camden-
1058 AM EDT Wed Jul 28 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Camden County in New Jersey.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

There is a low probability of widespread hazardous weather.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

NJZ019-291458-
Northwestern Burlington-
1058 AM EDT Wed Jul 28 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwestern Burlington County in
New Jersey.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

There is a low probability of widespread hazardous weather.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

NJZ020-291458-
Ocean-
1058 AM EDT Wed Jul 28 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for inland portions of Ocean County
in New Jersey.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

There is a low probability of widespread hazardous weather.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

NJZ021-291458-
Cumberland-
1058 AM EDT Wed Jul 28 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Cumberland County in New Jersey.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

NJZ022-291458-
Atlantic-
1058 AM EDT Wed Jul 28 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for inland portions of Atlantic
County in New Jersey.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

NJZ023-291458-
Cape May-
1058 AM EDT Wed Jul 28 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Cape May County excluding the
Atlantic coast in New Jersey.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

NJZ024-291458-
Atlantic Coastal Cape May-
1058 AM EDT Wed Jul 28 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Atlantic coastal portions of
Cape May County in New Jersey.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

NJZ025-291458-
Coastal Atlantic-
1058 AM EDT Wed Jul 28 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for coastal portions of Atlantic
County in New Jersey.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

NJZ026-291458-
Coastal Ocean-
1058 AM EDT Wed Jul 28 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for coastal portions of Ocean County
in New Jersey.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

NJZ027-291458-
Southeastern Burlington-
1058 AM EDT Wed Jul 28 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeastern Burlington County in
New Jersey.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

There is a low probability of widespread hazardous weather.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

MDZ012-291458-
Kent MD-
1058 AM EDT Wed Jul 28 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Kent County in Maryland.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

There is a low probability of widespread hazardous weather.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

MDZ015-291458-
Queen Annes-
1058 AM EDT Wed Jul 28 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Queen Annes County in Maryland.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

MDZ019-291458-
Talbot-
1058 AM EDT Wed Jul 28 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Talbot County in Maryland.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

MDZ020-291458-
Caroline-
1058 AM EDT Wed Jul 28 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Caroline County in Maryland.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

ANZ430-291458-
Delaware Bay waters north of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
1058 AM EDT Wed Jul 28 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for upper Delaware Bay.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

ANZ431-291458-
Delaware Bay waters south of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
1058 AM EDT Wed Jul 28 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for lower Delaware Bay.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

ANZ450-291458-
Coastal waters from Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
1058 AM EDT Wed Jul 28 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Atlantic coastal waters
adjacent to Monmouth County out 20 nm.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

ANZ451-291458-
Coastal waters from Manasquan Inlet to Little Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
1058 AM EDT Wed Jul 28 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Atlantic coastal waters
adjacent to Ocean County out 20 nm.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

ANZ452-291458-
Coastal waters from Little Egg Inlet to Great Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
1058 AM EDT Wed Jul 28 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Atlantic coastal waters
adjacent to Atlantic County out 20 nm.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

ANZ453-291458-
Coastal waters from Great Egg Inlet to Cape May NJ out 20 nm-
1058 AM EDT Wed Jul 28 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Atlantic coastal waters
adjacent to Cape May County out 20 nm.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

ANZ454-291458-
Coastal waters from Cape May NJ to Cape Henlopen DE out 20 nm-
1058 AM EDT Wed Jul 28 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Atlantic coastal waters
adjacent to the mouth of Delaware Bay out 20 nm.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

ANZ455-291458-
Coastal waters from Cape Henlopen to Fenwick Island DE out 20 nm-
1058 AM EDT Wed Jul 28 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Atlantic coastal waters
adjacent to Sussex County out 20 nm.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
353 PM EDT Wed Jul 28 2021

NJZ021>023-282015-
Cumberland-Atlantic-Cape May-
353 PM EDT Wed Jul 28 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC...
SOUTHEASTERN CUMBERLAND AND NORTHWESTERN CAPE MAY COUNTIES...

At 352 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Belleplain
Forest, or 9 miles southeast of Millville, moving southeast at 10
mph.

Locations impacted include...
Woodbine, Estell Manor, Corbin City, Belleplain Forest, Dennisville,
Bricksboro, Goshen, Port Elizabeth and Eldora.

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 3932 7501 3940 7488 3928 7466 3911 7485
TIME...MOT...LOC 1952Z 321DEG 8KT 3932 7489

PO