Special Marine Warning 105, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

599 
FZUS71 KPHI 291754
MWSPHI

Marine Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
154 PM EDT Thu Jul 29 2021

ANZ430-291815-
/O.CON.KPHI.MA.W.0105.000000T0000Z-210729T1815Z/
154 PM EDT Thu Jul 29 2021

...A SPECIAL MARINE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 215 PM EDT...

For the following areas...
Delaware Bay waters north of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE...

At 154 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Sea Breeze,
moving northeast at 20 knots.

HAZARD...Wind gusts 34 knots or greater and small hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Small craft could be damaged in briefly higher winds and 
         suddenly higher waves.

Locations impacted include...
Fortesque Beach, Woodland Beach, Sea Breeze and Ship John Shoal
Light.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Move to safe harbor until hazardous weather passes.

&&

LAT...LON 3951 7539 3948 7533 3943 7534 3943 7529
      3946 7524 3946 7522 3941 7518 3935 7518
      3932 7512 3927 7513 3927 7509 3931 7506
      3930 7505 3921 7514 3920 7530 3934 7556
TIME...MOT...LOC 1754Z 229DEG 20KT 3933 7531 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...>34KTS

$$

Staarmann

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1253 PM EDT Thu Jul 29 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front is forecast to lift into our region today as high
pressure slides out to sea. A cold front will approach from the
Great Lakes today and tonight and it should pass through eastern
Pennsylvania, eastern Maryland, Delaware and New Jersey early
on Friday. High pressure is anticipated to follow for Friday and
Saturday. Another cold front from the northwest is expected to
move toward and through our region on Sunday and Sunday night.
High pressure should briefly influence our weather on Monday
before low pressure passes off the Middle Atlantic coast on
Tuesday or Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY...

The key message for today is the threat for severe weather
across the region. The Storm Prediction Center has placed a
majority of the area in an Enhanced risk for severe weather. The
threats will be damaging winds, large hail, and an isolated
tornado. The primary threat time will be this afternoon into
evening.

Surface high pressure is heading east and moving off the coast
this morning allowing surface winds to remain calm or light and
out of the southeast. Model guidance continues to struggle with
how the MCS over the Midwest and the attendant MCV will
progress through the day today. Even through this morning, the
CAMs are still having relatively low run to run consistency.
The general idea remains that the MCV will head southeast and
approach eastern PA by this afternoon.

We remain fairly clouded up through late this morning which may
cause some convective inhibition as we head into this
afternoon. Some breaks in the thick cloud cover appears to be
occurring and should continue into the afternoon. However, with
a warm front across Delmarva and slowly lifting northward, we
are seeing instability increase fairly rapidly, which doesn't
take much at this point in July. So, while we may not have
nearly as much SBCAPE as originally thought, the strength of the
MCV along with increased moisture in the region will certainly
pack a good punch. As the MCV pushes to the southeast, it should
force the nearly stationary boundary to the north and east.
Lots of potential for a convective bust still exists but there
are still some things that have us concerned enough to not
discount an active afternoon across the Mid- Atlantic states.

Early this afternoon the MCV will be approaching from the west
with showers and thunderstorms across central PA. Ascent will
increase across the region as the MCV approaches. Across the
warm sector, effective bulk shear values of ~45 kts will be more
than sufficient to support rotating updrafts. Some upscale
growth is forecast as multiple cold pools start to be deposited
and merge. The primary threats with these storms will be
damaging winds, large hail, and an isolated tornado (thanks to
slightly back southeast flow and impressive directional shear).
The storms look to enter the CWA most likely around 2 to 4 PM
and clear the coast by 8 - 11 PM.

As the storms clear the coast, surface low pressure will be
located near the NY/Canada border and be dragging a surface cold
front through the area. Winds will slowly turn from the
northwest through the night with skies slowly clearing from the
west.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A long wave trough will continue to affect the northeastern
states from Friday through Saturday night. A couple of short
waves are forecast to pass over New York and New England on
Friday and Friday night. Any showers associated with short waves
will likely remain to our northeast. Surface high pressure is
anticipated to slide from the Great Lakes on Friday to the
waters off the Middle Atlantic coast on Saturday night, bringing
our region dry weather conditions.

The surface high is expected to be accompanied by unseasonably
low humidity levels in eastern Pennsylvania, New Jersey,
Delaware and eastern Maryland. Dew point readings are forecast
to drop into the 50s by late Friday afternoon and they should
favor the upper 40s and lower 50s on Friday night and Saturday.
They may begin to creep upward into the middle and upper 50s on
Saturday night in the return flow as the high moves off the
coast.

High temperatures should be mainly in the 80s on Friday and
around 80 degrees on Saturday. Readings will likely not get
above the lower and middle 70s in the elevated terrain of the
Poconos and far northern New Jersey on either day. Lows are
anticipated to favor the 50s on Friday night, and the upper 50s
and lower 60s on Saturday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The long wave trough is expected to remain over the eastern
states from Sunday through Wednesday. A closed low may develop
over Ohio and vicinity on Wednesday. The pattern will prevent
the heat and humidity from building back into our region.
Daytime highs should favor the range from the upper 70s to the
middle 80s with overnight lows mostly from the upper 50s to the
middle 60s.

A mid level short wave and its associated surface cold front
are anticipated to approach from the northwest on Sunday before
making their way across our region on Sunday night. We are
mentioning a chance of showers and thunderstorms mainly from
Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening. The cold front is expected
to nearly stall to our south on Monday as high pressure builds
from the Great Lakes into the northeastern states.

Low pressure developing and traveling along the cold front to
our south should impact our weather in the Tuesday and Wednesday
time frame. The guidance differs on the details, timing and
number of waves of low pressure, so we will simply keep a chance
of precipitation for both days.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today...MVFR cigs continue to plague the terminals late this
morning with improvement expected between 17-18Z at all
terminals. Winds are generally out of the south to southeast
around 5 to 10 knots and will start to veer to the southwest
through early afternoon. Expect showers and thunderstorms
through the afternoon and early evening with MVFR/IFR
conditions at times between 21-02Z. Moderate confidence overall
with low confidence in thunderstorm timing.

Tonight...Becoming VFR after evening showers/thunderstorms and
associated restrictions. MVFR conditions may persist through
about 05Z before clearing. Winds gradually shifting from the
northwest with prevailing speeds 5 to 10 kt. High confidence.

Outlook...

Friday...Mainly VFR. Northwest wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts
of 20 to 25 knots. High confidence.

Saturday...Mainly VFR. Northwest wind 5 to 10 knots, becoming
southwest. High confidence.

Sunday...Some early morning low clouds and visibility
restrictions are possible, otherwise mainly VFR. A chance of
showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. South to
southwest wind around 10 knots. Medium confidence.

Monday...Mainly VFR. Northwest wind around 10 knots. Medium
confidence.

&&

.MARINE...
This morning... Sub-SCA conditions expected with southeast
winds around 10 kts. Seas 2 to 3 ft.

This afternoon into tonight... Winds will continue strengthen
as the pressure gradient tightens with gusts very close to or at
SCA criteria. Seas building 3 to 4 ft. Given the above, have
issued an SCA for the Atlantic Coastal waters starting at 2 PM
this afternoon and continuing until midnight tonight.
Thunderstorms will cross the waters late this afternoon into
evening. Winds and seas will be higher in and near
thunderstorms.

Outlook...

Friday through Monday...No marine headlines are anticipated.

Rip currents...

Winds will increase to 15 to 20 kts today with gusts at SCA
criteria. There will be an onshore component for the NJ coast
today as winds veer from the south. Given the above, and the 8
second period forecast, the rip risk for Coastal Cape May and
Coastal Atlantic will be MODERATE today. The rest of the beaches
will be kept at LOW given the orientation of the coastline
relative to the wind direction. Winds shift offshore for Friday,
so the rip risk for Friday will be LOW.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ450>455.

&&

Synopsis...Iovino
Near Term...Haines/Meola
Short Term...Iovino
Long Term...Iovino
Aviation...Haines/Iovino/Meola
Marine...Haines/Iovino

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1202 PM EDT Thu Jul 29 2021

NJZ001-007>010-012>014-PAZ054-055-061-062-301615-
Sussex-Warren-Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-Middlesex-Western Monmouth-
Eastern Monmouth-Carbon-Monroe-Lehigh-Northampton-
1202 PM EDT Thu Jul 29 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New Jersey, northern
New Jersey, northwest New Jersey, east central Pennsylvania and
northeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

There is a slight risk for severe thunderstorms later this afternoon
and this evening. Damaging winds, large hail, and an isolated
tornado are possible.

Several instances of flooding are possible, especially in urban and
poor-drainage areas and near vulnerable small creeks and streams.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

DEZ001>004-MDZ012-015-019-020-NJZ015>027-PAZ060-070-071-101>106-
301615-
New Castle-Kent-Inland Sussex-Delaware Beaches-Kent MD-Queen Annes-
Talbot-Caroline-Mercer-Salem-Gloucester-Camden-
Northwestern Burlington-Ocean-Cumberland-Atlantic-Cape May-
Atlantic Coastal Cape May-Coastal Atlantic-Coastal Ocean-
Southeastern Burlington-Berks-Delaware-Philadelphia-Western Chester-
Eastern Chester-Western Montgomery-Eastern Montgomery-Upper Bucks-
Lower Bucks-
1202 PM EDT Thu Jul 29 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Delaware, northern
Delaware, southern Delaware, northeast Maryland, central New
Jersey, southern New Jersey, east central Pennsylvania and
southeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

There is an enhanced risk for severe thunderstorms later this
afternoon and this evening. Damaging winds, large hail, and an
isolated tornado are possible.

Several instances of flooding are possible, especially in urban and
poor-drainage areas and near vulnerable small creeks and streams.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

ANZ430-431-450>455-301615-
Delaware Bay waters north of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
Delaware Bay waters south of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
Coastal waters from Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Manasquan Inlet to Little Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Little Egg Inlet to Great Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Great Egg Inlet to Cape May NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape May NJ to Cape Henlopen DE out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape Henlopen to Fenwick Island DE out 20 nm-
1202 PM EDT Thu Jul 29 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters and
Delaware Bay Waters.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

There is a risk for severe thunderstorms later this afternoon and
this evening. Winds in excess of 34 knots, large hail, and an
isolated waterspout are possible.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on potential
weather hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1135 AM EDT Thu Jul 29 2021

MDZ019-020-291630-
Talbot-Caroline-
1135 AM EDT Thu Jul 29 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN TALBOT AND
SOUTHWESTERN CAROLINE COUNTIES...

At 1135 AM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Hambleton, or
near Easton, moving east at 10 mph.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Easton, Trappe, Preston, Agner, Choptank, Tanyard, Harmony, Hambleton
and Windyhill.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 3858 7606 3860 7606 3863 7608 3862 7612
      3873 7612 3881 7578 3868 7578 3871 7584
      3870 7587 3870 7590 3866 7596 3860 7599
      3857 7603
TIME...MOT...LOC 1535Z 266DEG 8KT 3868 7605

PO