Special Weather Statement, NWS Pittsburgh, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
553 PM EDT Tue Aug 3 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Generally dry and seasonable conditions will continue. Each day for
the next week will feature warmer and more humid weather than the
previous day, with mostly isolated rain chances each day.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Reconfigured PoPs according to radar trends. Convection has fired
mainly along the ridges, with moisture increasing in an inverted
trough that is extending north into the region. With relative weak
flow in the column, storms are slow-moving. However, PWATs are not
excessively high, generally in the 1.0 to 1.2 inch range in the
southeastern CWA, and do not expect much in the way of water issues
unless multiple storms impact the same basin.

Previous discussion...

The showers and storms will quickly weaken this evening and dissipate
after 00Z this evening. The left over moisture will assist in the
development of valley fog tonight in a few spots but should remain
largely patchy with temps a bit below normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Wednesday and Thursday will again feature generally pleasant
weather. The chance for showers is slightly higher on Wednesday as
an increasingly warm/moist boundary layer will become slightly
unstable underneath a weakened subsidence inversion around 700mb.
However, such dry air and a layer of poor lapse rates in the mid-
levels will keep convection sparse and generally shallow. A few
thunderstorms are possible as well.

The upper-low begins to shift off east on Thursday, with mid-level
ridging building in by mid-day. Though the boundary layer appears to
be even warmer and moister than Wednesday, mid-levels become
unfavorable for any convection once again.

Highs both days will be in the 80s, with Thursday being the warmer
of the two.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As the center of the ridge builds further east, convection will be
further suppressed as the warming in the mid levels becomes stronger.
thus will expect warmer surface temps and a mainly dry forecast for
Friday. Heading into the weekend, the high shifts further east
allowing the northwest flow to redevelop. A weak trough will be
unlikely to spawn significant convection into the forecast area
early Saturday but the approach of a strong wave later in the day
will lead to a better chance of showers and thunderstorms Saturday
into Sunday.

The redevelopment of southerly flow into next week will make for an
active pattern setting up with passing shortwaves over the northern
Great Lakes associated with the northern branch of the jet. This will
also mean warmer temps for the extended as well as 90s can't be ruled
out in the extended.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions expected through the TAF period under the influence of
high pressure.

Sct/bkn clouds likely for areas around and south of Pittsburgh amid
weak moist advection aloft, with enough heating to spark an very iso
light shra in the aftn, favoring MGW.

.Outlook...
High pressure will maintain general VFR, with generally isolated
afternoon showers possible.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1252 PM EDT Tue Aug 3 2021

OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069-PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-
031-073>076-WVZ001>004-012-021-509>514-041700-
Tuscarawas-Carroll-Columbiana-Coshocton-Harrison-Jefferson OH-
Muskingum-Guernsey-Belmont-Noble-Monroe-Mercer-Venango-Forest-
Lawrence-Butler-Clarion-Jefferson PA-Beaver-Allegheny-Armstrong-
Indiana-Washington-Greene-Westmoreland-
Higher Elevations of Westmoreland-Fayette-
Higher Elevations of Fayette-Hancock-Brooke-Ohio-Marshall-Wetzel-
Marion-Monongalia-
Ridges of Eastern Monongalia and Northwestern Preston-Preston-
Eastern Preston-Western Tucker-Eastern Tucker-
1252 PM EDT Tue Aug 3 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central Ohio, western
Pennsylvania, and northern West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
539 PM EDT Tue Aug 3 2021

WVZ509-510-032215-
Ridges of Eastern Monongalia and Northwestern Preston-Monongalia-
539 PM EDT Tue Aug 3 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL WILL AFFECT
NORTHEASTERN MONONGALIA COUNTY...

At 539 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Morgantown,
moving north at 15 mph.

Hail up to the size of nickels is possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Morgantown...                     Westover...
Star City...                      Granville...
Brookhaven...                     Osage...
Cheat Lake...

This includes the following highways...
  Interstate 68 in West Virginia between mile markers 1 and 14.
  Interstate 79 in West Virginia between mile markers 147 and 156.

LAT...LON 3954 7987 3955 7999 3971 8004 3971 7976
TIME...MOT...LOC 2139Z 182DEG 11KT 3961 7994

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
633 PM EDT Tue Aug 3 2021

PAZ075-WVZ509-032315-
Fayette-Monongalia-
633 PM EDT Tue Aug 3 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL WILL AFFECT
SOUTHWESTERN FAYETTE AND NORTHEASTERN MONONGALIA COUNTIES...

At 633 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Point Marion,
or 8 miles northeast of Morgantown, moving north at 15 mph.

Small hail is possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Uniontown...                      Masontown...
Point Marion...                   Fairchance...
Smithfield...                     Greensboro...
Cheat Lake...

LAT...LON 3971 7988 3979 7992 3979 7991 3980 7991
      3981 7992 3983 7992 3984 7994 3986 7992
      3986 7993 3987 7992 3987 7971 3970 7980
TIME...MOT...LOC 2233Z 182DEG 11KT 3974 7984