Severe Thunderstorm Warning 10, NWS Paducah, KY

214 
WWUS53 KPAH 092154
SVSPAH

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
454 PM CDT Fri Apr 9 2021

MOC181-092200-
/O.CON.KPAH.SV.W.0010.000000T0000Z-210409T2200Z/
Ripley MO-
454 PM CDT Fri Apr 9 2021

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN RIPLEY COUNTY...

At 454 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 8 miles south of
Hunter, or 11 miles north of Doniphan, moving northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Ping pong ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind 
         damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

This severe thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
northwestern Ripley County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

To report severe weather contact your nearest law enforcement agency.
They will send your report to the National Weather Service office in
Paducah.

Continuous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature's leading
killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to
be struck by lightning.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3681 9104 3682 9101 3681 9090 3681 9066
      3669 9094 3671 9101
TIME...MOT...LOC 2154Z 247DEG 37KT 3677 9090 

HAIL...1.50IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

SMITH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
310 PM CDT Fri Apr 9 2021

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Fri Apr 9 2021

A few showers have developed from an area of agitated cumulus from
the Ozark Foothills northeast along a confluence zone across
southern Illinois and into Gibson county Indiana. Instability is
fairly limited east of the Mississippi, so would expect some
bubbling to continue with possibly a stray lightning strike, but
the stronger showers and any storms should have a hard time
sustaining themselves for long.

SPC's mesoanalysis indicates that there is around 1000J/kg of
mixed-layer CAPE over much of southeast Missouri, but it may still
be struggling with a cap. Therefore the cu field is locked to the
better terrain for now. A broken band of thunderstorms is lifting
northeast into southwest/south central Missouri along a
progressive outflow. The 0-3KM bulk shear and SRH is not great, so
not thinking that there will be much organization of the
convection through the early evening.

The HRRR lifts a few cells into southeast Missouri through 00Z,
and then tries to push them eastward into west Kentucky this
evening. Meanwhile, storms are expected to fire along the cold
front over eastern Kansas and Oklahoma around 00Z. This convection
is likely to become organized as it primarily dives east southeast
into Arkansas through the evening. The northward extent of this
development is in doubt, but cannot rule out a few stronger cells
with wind or hail in our southwest counties after 06Z tonight.

The overall signal is for the frontal convection to do a split
with a mean-looking MCS diving to our south and more disorganized
convection lifting north with the surface low. Not sure if there
will be much convection left by 12Z as it attempts to push east of
the Mississippi. The cold front will reach the Mississippi by 15Z
Saturday and then clear the entire area by 21Z. At least scattered
showers will continue along and ahead of it. A few storms will
also be possible until the front passes.

A few wraparound showers may skirt the northwest and northern
edges of the forecast area late Saturday and Saturday night, but
most of this activity will stay northwest/north of the region.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Fri Apr 9 2021

The next work week still looks rather uneventful. Generally dry
conditions are forecast through the period. Temperatures compared to
this week will be cooler, with highs mainly in the 60s.

The longer term global models have been strongly hinting at a major
cooldown, but they have delayed the timing of the cooldown. As a
result, forecast temps will remain constant through the week. Highs
will be warmest on Monday ahead of a cold front, ranging from the
mid 60s to mid 70s. Otherwise, expect highs in the 60s with lows in
the 40s through Friday.

As far as precip chances, very little if any precip is expected.
There is a slight chance of showers with the cold front passage
Monday and Monday night. Tuesday appears dry behind the front.

Beyond Tuesday, the ensembles continue to depict a broad area of
negative 500 mb height anomalies over the northern states. These
negative height anomalies are forecast to slowly sink south and
increase late in the week. However, there is really not much of a
signal for precip despite the falling 500 mb heights and lack of a
strong surface high. The national model blend has littered the
forecast with 20 percent pops starting Wednesday. Given the model
differences in the large area of upper-level troughing approaching
our region, it is tough to rule out a few showers.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Fri Apr 9 2021

Confidence in any significant coverage of convection this
afternoon and evening is low, so will keep the TAFs dry for that
period. A band of showers is expected to move eastward across the
region overnight into Saturday morning, but instability is hard
to find at this time, so will not have any mention of TS or VCTS.
Not sure if there will be much impact on visibilities, but
certainly cannot rule out MVFR conditions in the showers. Lower
MVFR ceilings will develop as the showers arrive in the west, and
may lag the showers in the north and east. A brief IFR ceiling
cannot be ruled out, especially in the north. Gusty southwest
winds will diminish through the afternoon. Winds will back to
southeast tonight, and then pick up and become gusty from the
southwest behind the cold front Saturday morning.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...MY
AVIATION...DRS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Paducah KY
328 PM CDT Fri Apr 9 2021

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-101000-
Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton-
White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope-
Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh-
Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves-
Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell-
Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean-
Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter-
Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid-
328 PM CDT Fri Apr 9 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern
Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms are expected through early evening, mainly
over southeast Missouri. A few strong storms with locally gusty
winds and hail will be possible. Overnight, a few thunderstorms
will be possible amidst more widespread showers. A strong storm
with damaging wind cannot be ruled out over southern portions of
southeast Missouri and the Purchase Area of Kentucky.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

A chance of thunderstorms will continue Saturday along and ahead
of a weak cold front that will move east through the entire region
by 4 PM. Locally heavy rainfall will be the primary concern.

Strong southwest winds will gust up to 35 mph at times behind the
cold front Saturday afternoon.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

DRS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
345 PM CDT Fri Apr 9 2021

MOZ100-092115-
Wayne MO-
345 PM CDT Fri Apr 9 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN WAYNE COUNTY UNTIL
415 PM CDT...

At 343 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Shook, or near Greenville, moving east at 20 mph.

At 340 pm...a report of dime size hail was reported two miles south
of Greenville, near the Camp Allen area.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Greenville and Shook.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Paducah.

If on or near Lake Wappappello, get out of the water and move
indoors or inside a vehicle. Remember, lightning can strike out to
10 miles from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you
are close enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter
now! Do not be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.

Persons in campgrounds should consider seeking sturdy shelter until
this storm passes.

&&

LAT...LON 3719 9022 3709 9022 3708 9011 3704 9011
      3704 9015 3701 9015 3701 9017 3699 9017
      3699 9018 3698 9019 3698 9020 3697 9020
      3696 9022 3694 9045 3712 9050
TIME...MOT...LOC 2043Z 258DEG 19KT 3705 9038

SMITH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
401 PM CDT Fri Apr 9 2021

MOZ108-092145-
Ripley MO-
401 PM CDT Fri Apr 9 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL RIPLEY COUNTY UNTIL 445
PM CDT...

At 400 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Doniphan, moving east at 15 mph.

At 351 pm...a Skywarn spotter reported nickle size hail in Gatewood
Missouri.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Doniphan, Naylor, Budapest, Oxly, Fairdealing and Briar.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Paducah.

&&

LAT...LON 3681 9065 3681 9063 3668 9063 3668 9059
      3659 9059 3659 9058 3656 9058 3650 9090
      3650 9094 3666 9101
TIME...MOT...LOC 2100Z 249DEG 14KT 3660 9089

SMITH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
409 PM CDT FRI APR 9 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0340 PM     HAIL             2 S GREENVILLE          37.10N 90.45W
04/09/2021  M0.70 INCH       WAYNE              MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NEAR CAMP ALLEN.

&&

KES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
411 PM CDT FRI APR 9 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0351 PM     HAIL             GATEWOOD                36.58N 91.09W
04/09/2021  M0.88 INCH       RIPLEY             MO   PUBLIC

            RELAYED BY TV MEDIA.

&&

KES

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
416 PM CDT Fri Apr 9 2021

MOZ107-092200-
Carter MO-
416 PM CDT Fri Apr 9 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN CARTER COUNTY UNTIL
500 PM CDT...

At 415 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Hunter, or 11 miles southeast of Van Buren, moving northeast at 20
mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Ellsinore, Hunter and Grandin.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Paducah.

&&

LAT...LON 3705 9091 3705 9073 3700 9073 3700 9071
      3697 9072 3697 9070 3693 9070 3693 9068
      3688 9068 3681 9079 3683 9115
TIME...MOT...LOC 2115Z 220DEG 17KT 3687 9088

SMITH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
427 PM CDT FRI APR 9 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0419 PM     HAIL             DONIPHAN                36.62N 90.82W
04/09/2021  E1.00 INCH       RIPLEY             MO   BROADCAST MEDIA

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL NEAR LONE STAR SCHOOL.

&&