Severe Thunderstorm Warning 541, NWS Norman, OK

897 
WWUS54 KOUN 262354
SVSOUN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
654 PM CDT Tue Oct 26 2021

OKC129-153-270003-
/O.CAN.KOUN.SV.W.0541.000000T0000Z-211027T0030Z/
Roger Mills OK-Woodward OK-
654 PM CDT Tue Oct 26 2021

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN ROGER MILLS AND
WESTERN WOODWARD COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning over southern 
Ellis County has weakened. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 3644 9978 3638 9961 3635 9961 3622 9973
      3625 9986
TIME...MOT...LOC 2353Z 204DEG 46KT 3600 9985 

$$

OKC045-270030-
/O.CON.KOUN.SV.W.0541.000000T0000Z-211027T0030Z/
Ellis OK-
654 PM CDT Tue Oct 26 2021

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 PM CDT
FOR CENTRAL ELLIS COUNTY...

At 653 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 10 miles southwest
of Arnett, moving northeast at 55 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Gage and Fargo. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A tornado watch remains in effect for the warned area. Tornadoes can
develop quickly from severe thunderstorms.

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3644 9978 3638 9961 3635 9961 3622 9973
      3625 9986
TIME...MOT...LOC 2353Z 204DEG 46KT 3600 9985 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

JT

806 
WWUS54 KOUN 270010
SVSOUN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
710 PM CDT Tue Oct 26 2021

OKC045-270020-
/O.CAN.KOUN.SV.W.0541.000000T0000Z-211027T0030Z/
Ellis OK-
710 PM CDT Tue Oct 26 2021

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL ELLIS COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 3644 9978 3638 9961 3635 9961 3622 9973
      3625 9986
TIME...MOT...LOC 0006Z 204DEG 46KT 3620 9974 

$$

JT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
623 PM CDT Tue Oct 26 2021

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 413 PM CDT Tue Oct 26 2021

While we continue to expect increasing thunderstorm and severe
weather potential tonight into early Wednesday morning, there are
some slight changes in the evolution of the event, in particular in
western Oklahoma.

We continue to see ample moisture advection into the region ahead of
the approaching upper level trough and cyclone, with widespread mid-
60s dewpoints all the way north to the Kansas border. A surface
dryline has developed through the central Texas panhandle, which
will be the focal point of storm development as it moves eastward.
Storm development will be suppressed through most of the
afternoon with an 800mb inversion and a lack of large instability
(MUCAPE < 1500 J/kg). As the dryline approaches Oklahoma and
western north Texas, convection is expected to increase to
initially some scattered showers and storms.

Initially these storms will be scattered, however with increasing
lapse rates in the mid levels through the evening storm coverage
will increase. One major recent change in the CAMs has been coverage
of storms in northwestern Oklahoma, with storm coverage remaining
minimal and more widespread precipitation in southwestern OK/western
north TX. Due to the strong low and mid level shear (0-1km shear ~
30kts, 0-3km ~ 35kts), a short period of time when supercells can
develop cannot be ruled out. As the southerly low level jet
intensifies this evening, storms will quickly grow upscale into a
line as it progresses into central Oklahoma and continues to expand
northward.

As for impacts, the primary concern will continue to be widespread
strong winds associated with the line of storms that develop. More
significant impacts could occur with the brief period of isolated
supercells or any embedded supercells that develop within the line
of storms, which may include large hail, damaging winds, and
possibly a tornado. In addition, we'll be keeping an eye on any sort
of bowing segments that may occur within the line of storms for any
possible quick tornadogenesis that may occur on the northern
portion of the bowing segments as the line of storms move through
central and southern OK.

Zwink

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 413 PM CDT Tue Oct 26 2021

As the upper level cyclone continues to deepen as it moves eastward,
gusty winds will continue to increase Thursday into Friday. With
forecast soundings in western Oklahoma showing >50kts at the top of
the mixed layer, there will be widespread strong wind concerns and a
High Wind Watch likely to be issued soon. In addition to these high
winds, fire weather will continue to be a concern with the cold, dry
airmass flowing into the region. The main area for concern for fire
weather will be western Oklahoma and western north Texas, with RH
values in the upper 10s and lower 20s in the region, as well as
likely missing out on any precipitation from Tuesday night/Wednesday
morning.

Winds will still be gusty on Friday, however conditions will improve
from Friday onward as the influence of the upper level cyclone gives
way to ridging over the region. The remainder of the weekend will be
seasonably cool and dry, with highs in the 60s/70s and lows
decreasing into the 30s/40s. Next chance of precipitation is
expected to be early next week with the next approaching upper level
trough and an associated surface cold front next Monday night into
Tuesday.

Zwink

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 623 PM CDT Tue Oct 26 2021

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop across southwest
Oklahoma and western north Texas late this evening and progress to
the northeast as a line. All terminals (with perhaps the
exception being KWWR) will likely be impacted. Gusty, variable
winds are possible with the line (perhaps >50 knots).

A cold front will progress from west to east late tonight into
tomorrow warning. Gusty, northerly winds are expected behind the
front. In addition, wrap-around (at least) MVFR stratus is
possible across central into north central Oklahoma.

Mahale

&&

.UPPER AIR...
Issued at 413 PM CDT Tue Oct 26 2021

An Upper Air flight is planned for 00Z, with an additional special
sounding for severe weather likely afterwards.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  56  65  50  63 /  80  30  20   0
Hobart OK         52  67  49  67 /  60  10  10   0
Wichita Falls TX  56  69  51  70 /  70   0   0   0
Gage OK           47  62  45  64 /  30  10  10   0
Ponca City OK     56  65  49  62 /  90  60  40  10
Durant OK         61  73  52  67 /  90  70  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....50
AVIATION...10

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Norman OK
1214 PM CDT Tue Oct 26 2021

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-271715-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
1214 PM CDT Tue Oct 26 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Through Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
Severe thunderstorms are likely Tuesday evening and overnight
across much of Oklahoma and north Texas. A few isolated storms may
develop as early as 6pm along a dryline in the eastern panhandle
or far western Oklahoma. These storms will be capable of hail up
to 2 inches and damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph as well as a low
tornado threat. As storms move eastward and increase in coverage
during the evening hours, expectation is for them to congeal into
a line with damaging winds becoming the dominant hazard along
with a continued low risk for QLCS tornadoes.

.SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT STATEMENT...
Storm spotter groups and emergency management personnel across
Oklahoma and western north Texas should prepare for severe weather
operations this evening and overnight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday...

.Thunderstorms.
Showers and storms are expected to linger across central Oklahoma
into Wednesday morning, gradually moving off to the east through
the day. No severe weather is expected.

.Fire Weather...
Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions will be
possible across western Oklahoma and adjacent parts of western
north Texas Wednesday afternoon.

Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions will be
possible across much of western and central Oklahoma and western
north Texas Thursday afternoon.

.Strong Winds...
Strong north winds, with gusts as high as 50 mph, will be possible
during the day on Thursday.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
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