Severe Thunderstorm Warning 405, NWS Norman, OK

772 
WWUS54 KOUN 171812
SVSOUN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
112 PM CDT Sat Jul 17 2021

OKC011-073-093-171830-
/O.CON.KOUN.SV.W.0405.000000T0000Z-210717T1830Z/
Kingfisher OK-Blaine OK-Major OK-
112 PM CDT Sat Jul 17 2021

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 130 PM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN KINGFISHER...NORTHEASTERN BLAINE AND SOUTHEASTERN
MAJOR COUNTIES...

At 112 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 6 miles east of
Okeene, moving southeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Okeene, Ames, Homestead and Lacey. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3618 9810 3617 9811 3617 9809 3610 9801
      3600 9830 3615 9843 3626 9820
TIME...MOT...LOC 1812Z 321DEG 15KT 3610 9820 

HAIL...0.88IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

JT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
609 AM CDT Sat Jul 17 2021

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Sat Jul 17 2021

Some showers/storms will remain possible through the morning in
parts of north central OK. An area of showers/storms in western KS
and the OK Panhandle early this morning could also move into NW
parts of the fa this morning. However, current thoughts are that
this activity will end before moving into the CWA so the forecast is
dry in that area for now but will continue to monitor radar trends.

An outflow boundary associated with the previously mentioned area of
storms W/NW of the fa, will likely end up near or in parts of the fa
today. The moist airmass over the area will not see any major
changes today so additional showers/storms will be possible again
later today and tonight with the outflow boundary a potential focus
for development that would affect parts of the fa. Locally heavy
rain will be the main concern.

The humid conditions along with highs in the 90s will lead to heat
index values of 100+ in some areas which could lead to heat problems
for some this afternoon. A mitigating factor is that wind speeds
could be just high enough in some areas to create a slight breeze.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 255 AM CDT Sat Jul 17 2021

The upper ridge extending from the Southwestern U.S. to the Southern
Plains expected to close by Sunday. A shortwave rounding the closed
high interacting with a strong transport of moisture through the mid-
levels may produce some elevated storms early Sunday.  Weak
instability and shear should keep much of these storms below severe,
although higher NAM MUCAPE values suggest a few of these high based
storms could potentially be strong to marginally severe across far
northern Oklahoma. POPs increase Sunday evening and overnight as a
larger amplitude positively tilted trough across the Midwest/Central
Plains starts digging into the Southern Plains.  Although severe
storms are unlikely overnight Sunday, could see some heavy rainfall
across the northern half of Oklahoma. Although the ECMWF is weaker
with the moisture, NAM, GFS, and Canadian NH models all projecting
PW values in excess of 2-inches across our north.  Chance POPs for
showers and thunderstorms will continue Monday through Tuesday as
the upper trough continues to dig through.  Cloudcover from storms
will result in unseasonably cooler temperatures on Monday, and that
trend will continue with a backdoor cool front coming through Monday
night.  By Tuesday, could see temperatures between 10-15 degrees
cooler than seasonably average.

Expecting the trough to close to an upper low across Texas on
Wednesday, keeping low POPs across the southern half of our forecast
area. Meanwhile, the upper ridge across the Southwestern U.S.
expected to build again keeping the northern half of Oklahoma dry
through the rest of the week.  Thursday will see a return of south
winds and the start of a warming trend with temperatures returning
back to the 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 607 AM CDT Sat Jul 17 2021

VFR and possibly MVFR ceilings will affect the area this TAF
period. Some showers/storms are possible this morning in northern
OK. Additional scattered showers/storms will be possible this
afternoon and tonight. Chances are too low for mention at some TAF
locations. Gusty, variable winds will be possible near the storms.
Winds will also shift with any outflow boundaries moving across
the area. Otherwise, southerly winds will generally occur across
the area.

&&

.UPPER AIR...
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Fri Jul 16 2021

No upper air flights are scheduled for today.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  91  72  91  71 /  30  30  30  40
Hobart OK         95  72  93  70 /  20  20  30  40
Wichita Falls TX  95  74  96  73 /  10  10  20  30
Gage OK           95  69  92  68 /  30  30  40  40
Ponca City OK     89  71  89  69 /  30  20  40  40
Durant OK         91  74  94  73 /  20  10  30  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...25

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Norman OK
1149 AM CDT Sat Jul 17 2021

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-181700-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
1149 AM CDT Sat Jul 17 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
Thunderstorms are expected this afternoon through this evening
across much of northern and central Oklahoma. Severe thunderstorms
capable of damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph and localized heavy
rainfall will be the main threats.

.Heat...
An increase in temperatures and dew point temperatures will lead
to heat index values of 100 to 105 degrees fahrenheit this
afternoon. Heat indices, combined with mostly sunny skies and
light winds, may lead to heat exhaustion or heat stroke. Limit
strenuous outdoor activities, find shade, and stay hydrated.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday...

.Thunderstorms...
Thunderstorm chances will continue across portions of our area
every day through next week. Some of the storms on Sunday could be
strong to marginally severe across northern Oklahoma with up to
quarter size hail and 60 mph wind gusts as the main hazards.
Flooding due to heavy rainfall will also be possible overnight
Sunday.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
1129 AM CDT Sat Jul 17 2021

OKZ005-006-171715-
Alfalfa OK-Woods OK-
1129 AM CDT Sat Jul 17 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR southwestern Alfalfa and
southeastern Woods Counties Until 1215 PM CDT...

AT 1128 AM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Dacoma, moving
east-southeast at 15 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Wind gusts to 50 MPH...
Pea size hail...

LAT...LON 3653 9827 3646 9848 3646 9853 3645 9854
      3640 9867 3641 9868 3671 9872 3682 9853
TIME...MOT...LOC 1628Z 332DEG 14KT 3669 9858

JT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
1207 PM CDT Sat Jul 17 2021

OKZ005-006-011-171745-
Major OK-Alfalfa OK-Woods OK-
1207 PM CDT Sat Jul 17 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR central Major...southwestern
Alfalfa and southeastern Woods Counties Until 1245 PM CDT...

AT 1203 PM CDT, a cluster of strong thunderstorms was located 5
miles northeast of Fairview and also southwest of Aline, moving
southeast at 10 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Wind gusts to 50 MPH...
Pea size hail...
Minor flooding in areas of poor drainage...

LAT...LON 3624 9814 3616 9832 3617 9858 3642 9878
      3653 9851
TIME...MOT...LOC 1703Z 328DEG 7KT 3633 9840

JT