Severe Thunderstorm Warning 200, NWS Norman, OK

201 
WWUS54 KOUN 170219
SVSOUN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
919 PM CDT Sun May 16 2021

TXC077-170300-
/O.CON.KOUN.SV.W.0200.000000T0000Z-210517T0300Z/
Clay TX-
919 PM CDT Sun May 16 2021

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHERN CLAY COUNTY...

At 918 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 4 miles south of 
Bluegrove, moving southeast at 15 mph. Persons in and near Joy and 
Buffalo Springs need to have sturdy shelter and stay away from 
windows.

HAZARD...Two inch hail and 70 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect 
         considerable tree damage. Wind damage is also likely to 
         mobile homes, roofs, and outbuildings.

Locations impacted include...
Bellevue, Newport, Bluegrove, Vashti, Shannon and Joy. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

This storm is producing destructive winds and large damaging hail.
SEEK SHELTER NOW inside a sturdy structure and stay away from
windows.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3363 9839 3376 9819 3362 9798 3347 9798
      3347 9827
TIME...MOT...LOC 0218Z 327DEG 12KT 3360 9821 

HAIL...2.00IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

11

147 
WWUS54 KOUN 170231
SVSOUN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
931 PM CDT Sun May 16 2021

TXC077-170300-
/O.CON.KOUN.SV.W.0200.000000T0000Z-210517T0300Z/
Clay TX-
931 PM CDT Sun May 16 2021

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN CLAY COUNTY...

At 930 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 8 miles south of 
Bluegrove, moving southeast at 15 mph. This is a dangerous storm for 
southern portions of Clay county.

This is a very dangerous storm.

HAZARD...Baseball size hail and 70 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be severely injured. 
         Expect shattered windows, extensive damage to roofs, 
         siding, and vehicles.

Locations impacted include...
Newport, Vashti, Shannon and Joy. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

This storm is producing destructive winds and large damaging hail.
SEEK SHELTER NOW inside a sturdy structure and stay away from
windows.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3358 9831 3365 9821 3361 9798 3347 9798
      3347 9827 3348 9828
TIME...MOT...LOC 0230Z 334DEG 14KT 3355 9819 

HAIL...2.75IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

11

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
639 PM CDT Sun May 16 2021

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 148 PM CDT Sun May 16 2021

Heavy rainfall associated with the northeastward-moving MCV has
decreased over central Oklahoma. Isolated shower and thunderstorm
development will continue through the afternoon over southwestern
and south-central Oklahoma, but with smaller coverage than
earlier. The extant flood watch for central and southern Oklahoma
will continue. Residual parts of storms that form on the NM dry
line today may make it as far as western Oklahoma with the
scenario of another MCV tomorrow morning just as likely. These
various convective initiators in the very humid air mass leads to
high pops tonight and through mid-day Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Sun May 16 2021

The wet pattern continues into the extended period as a slow moving
trough inches closer and weakens through midweek. Several rounds of
convection and heavy rainfall are likely, but pinpointing exact
timing and location will be difficult and likely dependent on
previous day's convection. It appears a round of storms is likely to
develop across the TX panhandle Monday afternoon and track across
our area Monday night. The risk of severe storms will likely be
highest across southwestern OK and western north TX where
instability will be highest. Messy storm modes are expected owing to
relatively weak mid level flow and the fact that by the time
storms enter our area they are likely to have congealed into
clusters or line segments, perhaps with embedded supercell
structures. A risk for large hail and damaging winds will
accompany these storms, with perhaps a tornado or two possible,
again mainly across our southwestern counties. Flooding will
continue to be a concern as well with unseasonably high moisture
available. The above scenario is all contingent on sufficient
airmass recovery out west in the wake of the convection Monday
morning, so expect future changes to the forecast as the evolution
of tonight's convection becomes more clear.

By Tuesday the mid to upper flow becomes more meridional and PWATs
surge to 1.5 to near 2". This will likely lead to an increased
flood threat across portions of central, southern, and
southeastern OK where convection will either be ongoing or is
expected to develop and training storms are likely. As the main
upper wave approaches late Tuesday, renewed convective
development is also possible over western portions of the area.

By Wednesday it appears the axis of heaviest rainfall may shift just
to the south and east of our area into eastern OK and TX. However,
with the upper trough still lingering just to our west and plenty of
available moisture at least scattered showers and storms are
likely to continue through the day. The trough weakens and lifts
northward Thursday and Friday but our area still remains between a
larger trough over the western US and a ridge centered over the
eastern US. This will keep a moist airmass in place with chances
for showers and thunderstorms each day into next weekend, with the
highest chances across central and eastern portions of the area.

Ware

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 634 PM CDT Sun May 16 2021

Ongoing thunderstorms may impact KSPS over the next couple hours,
but there is a higher probability they remain just south of the
terminal. Elsewhere, expect low clouds with showers possible
overnight before a line of storms is expected to move west to east
across the area early Monday morning. Clouds will likely stick
around much of the day tomorrow but ceilings should raise to VFR
by late morning at most sites.

&&

.UPPER AIR...
Issued at 345 AM CDT Sun May 16 2021

An Upper Air flight is currently not planned today.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  62  77  63  73 /  70  50  80  80
Hobart OK         61  80  61  76 /  70  30  80  70
Wichita Falls TX  64  82  65  76 /  70  50  80  80
Gage OK           58  79  57  76 /  70  30  80  60
Ponca City OK     61  77  61  76 /  50  40  80  80
Durant OK         64  78  65  74 /  80  80  70  90

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for OKZ019-020-022>032-
     034>048-050>052.

TX...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for TXZ085-086-088>090.

&&

SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...08

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
935 AM CDT Sun May 16 2021

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-171445-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
935 AM CDT Sun May 16 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Through Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible through the afternoon
mainly across portions of southern and central Oklahoma and
western north Texas. If a few storms do become severe, hail up to
quarter size and wind gusts to 60 mph will be the primary threats.

By mid to late evening, thunderstorms may move out of the Texas
panhandle and into western and southwestern Oklahoma, and western
north Texas. Damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph will be the main
threat, although large hail is also possible. Storms will weaken
but could still result in strong wind gusts well into the night
as they move eastward toward central Oklahoma.

.Heavy Rainfall...
Localized flooding will be possible through tonight mainly across
portions of central and southern Oklahoma.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday...

.Thunderstorms...
Thunderstorm chances will continue thru Saturday. Severe
thunderstorm chances return early Monday evening to the western
half of Oklahoma and western north Texas. Very large hail up to
the size of baseballs, damaging winds exceeding 70 mph, and
perhaps a tornado or two will be possible.

Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday and
Wednesday. Hail and gusty winds could accompany any of the
stronger thunderstorms.

.Heavy Rainfall...
Flooding will be possible mainly along and south of Interstate 44
Monday thru at least Wednesday. Many locations across this region
could receive over 3 inches of total rainfall by the end of the
week.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
746 PM CDT Sun May 16 2021

OKZ051-052-170115-
Marshall OK-Bryan OK-
746 PM CDT Sun May 16 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR southeastern Marshall and west
central Bryan Counties Until 815 PM CDT...

AT 742 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Pottsboro,
moving east-southeast at 35 MPH. These storms are close enough to
Lake Texoma to increase the winds and create a lightning threat.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Wind gusts to 40 MPH...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If on or near Lake Texoma, get out of the water and move indoors or
inside a vehicle. Remember, lightning can strike out to 15 miles
from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you are close
enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter now. Do not
be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.

&&

LAT...LON 3382 9653 3382 9658 3385 9663 3389 9659
      3390 9663 3392 9666 3391 9668 3385 9669
      3383 9671 3383 9676 3386 9678 3387 9679
      3401 9674 3395 9640 3378 9651
TIME...MOT...LOC 0042Z 287DEG 28KT 3380 9668

11

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
749 PM CDT SUN MAY 16 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0740 PM     FLOOD            MARIETTA                33.94N 97.12W
05/16/2021                   LOVE               OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MINOR FLOODING REPORTED IN LOVE COUNTY.

&&

MAD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
751 PM CDT SUN MAY 16 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0745 PM     HAIL             1 NW CROWELL            33.99N 99.73W
05/16/2021  E1.00 INCH       FOARD              TX   PUBLIC

&&

MAD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
757 PM CDT SUN MAY 16 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0755 PM     HAIL             1 NNW CROWELL           33.99N 99.73W
05/16/2021  E1.50 INCH       FOARD              TX   PUBLIC

&&

MAD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
805 PM CDT SUN MAY 16 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0757 PM     HAIL             CROWELL                 33.99N 99.72W
05/16/2021  E1.75 INCH       FOARD              TX   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

MAD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
837 PM CDT SUN MAY 16 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0832 PM     HAIL             2 NNW HENRIETTA         33.85N 98.21W
05/16/2021  E1.00 INCH       CLAY               TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MAD