Alert archive / New York / Small Craft Advisories in 2021
Small Craft Advisory 12, NWS New York, NY
NWS New York, NY issued this small craft advisory at Jan 30, 2021, 3:44 PM EST. It took effect at Jan 31, 2021, 6:00 PM EST. It was in force for 10 hr.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Jan 30, 2021, 3:44 PM EST (20:44 UTC)
- In effect from
- Jan 31, 2021, 6:00 PM EST
- Expired
- Feb 1, 2021, 3:49 AM EST
- In force
- 10 hr
- Issued by
- NWS New York, NY
The text
As transmitted.
146 WHUS71 KOKX 302044 MWWOKX URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Upton NY 344 PM EST Sat Jan 30 2021 ANZ355-310945- /O.CAN.KOKX.SC.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-210130T2300Z/ /O.NEW.KOKX.GL.W.0006.210131T2300Z-210201T1100Z/ /O.CON.KOKX.SR.A.0001.210201T1100Z-210202T1100Z/ Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 nm- 344 PM EST Sat Jan 30 2021 ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EST MONDAY... ...STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...For the Gale Warning, east winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt and seas 5 to 8 feet expected. For the Storm Watch, northeast winds 30 to 40 kt with gusts up to 50 kt and seas 9 to 14 feet possible. * WHERE...Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 nm. * WHEN...For the Gale Warning, from 6 PM Sunday to 6 AM EST Monday. For the Storm Watch, from Monday morning through late Monday night. * IMPACTS...Very strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Mariners should prepare to remain in port, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for severe conditions before conditions deteriorate. && $$ ANZ330-335-338-340-345-310945- /O.CAN.KOKX.SC.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-210130T2300Z/ /O.NEW.KOKX.SC.Y.0012.210131T2300Z-210201T1100Z/ /O.EXT.KOKX.GL.A.0003.210201T1100Z-210202T1100Z/ Long Island Sound East of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY- Long Island Sound West of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY- New York Harbor-Peconic and Gardiners Bays- South Shore Bays from Jones Inlet through Shinnecock Bay- 344 PM EST Sat Jan 30 2021 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EST MONDAY... ...GALE WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...For the Small Craft Advisory, northeast winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and seas 2 to 4 feet expected. For the Gale Watch, northeast winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 45 kt and seas 4 to 7 feet possible. * WHERE...Long Island Sound, The south shore and eastern bays of Long Island, and New York Harbor. * WHEN...For the Small Craft Advisory, from 6 PM Sunday to 6 AM EST Monday. For the Gale Watch, from Monday morning through late Monday night. * IMPACTS...Strong winds can cause hazardous seas which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible hazardous conditions. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and seas. && $$ ANZ350-353-310945- /O.CON.KOKX.SC.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-210130T2300Z/ /O.NEW.KOKX.GL.W.0006.210131T2300Z-210201T1100Z/ /O.CON.KOKX.SR.A.0001.210201T1100Z-210202T1100Z/ Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY out 20 nm- Fire Island Inlet NY to Moriches Inlet NY out 20 nm- 344 PM EST Sat Jan 30 2021 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING... ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EST MONDAY... ...STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...For the Small Craft Advisory, northwest winds 10 to 15 kt and seas 3 to 5 feet. For the Gale Warning, east winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 35 kt and seas 5 to 8 feet expected. For the Storm Watch, northeast winds 30 to 40 kt with gusts up to 50 kt and seas 12 to 17 feet possible. * WHERE...Fire Island Inlet to Montauk Point NY out 20 nm. * WHEN...For the Small Craft Advisory, until 6 PM EST this evening. For the Gale Warning, from 6 PM Sunday to 6 AM EST Monday. For the Storm Watch, from Monday morning through late Monday night. * IMPACTS...Very strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Mariners should prepare to remain in port, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for severe conditions before conditions deteriorate. && $$ For more details, see the Coastal Waters Forecast from National Weather Service New York NY, or visit https://www.weather.gov/okx/marine
4 follow-up statements
299 WHUS71 KOKX 302304 MWWOKX URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Upton NY 604 PM EST Sat Jan 30 2021 ANZ350-353-311215- /O.EXP.KOKX.SC.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-210130T2300Z/ /O.CON.KOKX.GL.W.0006.210131T2300Z-210201T1100Z/ /O.CON.KOKX.SR.A.0001.210201T1100Z-210202T1100Z/ Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY out 20 nm- Fire Island Inlet NY to Moriches Inlet NY out 20 nm- 604 PM EST Sat Jan 30 2021 ...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EST MONDAY... ...STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...For the Gale Warning, east winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 35 kt and seas 5 to 8 feet expected. For the Storm Watch, northeast winds 30 to 40 kt with gusts up to 50 kt and seas 12 to 17 feet possible. * WHERE...Fire Island Inlet to Montauk Point NY out 20 nm. * WHEN...For the Gale Warning, from 6 PM Sunday to 6 AM EST Monday. For the Storm Watch, from Monday morning through late Monday night. * IMPACTS...Very strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Mariners should prepare to remain in port, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for severe conditions before conditions deteriorate. && $$ ANZ355-311215- /O.CON.KOKX.GL.W.0006.210131T2300Z-210201T1100Z/ /O.CON.KOKX.SR.A.0001.210201T1100Z-210202T1100Z/ Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 nm- 604 PM EST Sat Jan 30 2021 ...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EST MONDAY... ...STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...For the Gale Warning, east winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt and seas 5 to 8 feet expected. For the Storm Watch, northeast winds 30 to 40 kt with gusts up to 50 kt and seas 9 to 14 feet possible. * WHERE...Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 nm. * WHEN...For the Gale Warning, from 6 PM Sunday to 6 AM EST Monday. For the Storm Watch, from Monday morning through late Monday night. * IMPACTS...Very strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Mariners should prepare to remain in port, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for severe conditions before conditions deteriorate. && $$ ANZ330-335-338-340-345-311215- /O.CON.KOKX.SC.Y.0012.210131T2300Z-210201T1100Z/ /O.CON.KOKX.GL.A.0003.210201T1100Z-210202T1100Z/ Long Island Sound East of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY- Long Island Sound West of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY- New York Harbor-Peconic and Gardiners Bays- South Shore Bays from Jones Inlet through Shinnecock Bay- 604 PM EST Sat Jan 30 2021 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EST MONDAY... ...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...For the Small Craft Advisory, northeast winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and seas 2 to 4 feet expected. For the Gale Watch, northeast winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 45 kt and seas 4 to 7 feet possible. * WHERE...Long Island Sound, The south shore and eastern bays of Long Island, and New York Harbor. * WHEN...For the Small Craft Advisory, from 6 PM Sunday to 6 AM EST Monday. For the Gale Watch, from Monday morning through late Monday night. * IMPACTS...Strong winds can cause hazardous seas which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible hazardous conditions. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and seas. && $$ For more details, see the Coastal Waters Forecast from National Weather Service New York NY, or visit https://www.weather.gov/okx/marine
900 WHUS71 KOKX 310846 MWWOKX URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Upton NY 346 AM EST Sun Jan 31 2021 ANZ350-353-355-312200- /O.CON.KOKX.GL.W.0006.210131T2300Z-210201T1100Z/ /O.UPG.KOKX.SR.A.0001.210201T1100Z-210202T1100Z/ /O.NEW.KOKX.SR.W.0001.210201T1100Z-210202T1100Z/ Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY out 20 nm- Fire Island Inlet NY to Moriches Inlet NY out 20 nm- Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 nm- 346 AM EST Sun Jan 31 2021 ...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST MONDAY... ...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...For the Storm Warning, northeast winds 35 to 45 kt with gusts up to 55 kt and seas 12 to 17 feet expected. For the Gale Warning, east winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt and seas 5 to 8 feet expected. * WHERE...The ocean waters south of Long Island out 20 nm. * WHEN...For the Storm Warning, from 6 AM Monday to 6 AM EST Tuesday. For the Gale Warning, from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EST Monday. * IMPACTS...Very strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Mariners should remain in port, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for severe conditions. && $$ ANZ330-340-345-312200- /O.CON.KOKX.SC.Y.0012.210131T2300Z-210201T1100Z/ /O.UPG.KOKX.GL.A.0003.210201T1100Z-210202T1100Z/ /O.NEW.KOKX.SR.W.0001.210201T1100Z-210202T1100Z/ Long Island Sound East of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY- Peconic and Gardiners Bays- South Shore Bays from Jones Inlet through Shinnecock Bay- 346 AM EST Sun Jan 31 2021 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST MONDAY... ...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...For the Storm Warning, northeast winds 25 to 35 kt with gusts up to 50 kt. Seas 4 to 8 feet expected on the Sound. For the Small Craft Advisory, east winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 4 feet expected on the Sound. * WHERE...The south shore and eastern bays of Long Island, and Eastern Long Island Sound. * WHEN...For the Storm Warning, from 6 AM Monday to 6 AM EST Tuesday. For the Small Craft Advisory, from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EST Monday. * IMPACTS...Very strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Mariners should remain in port, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for severe conditions. && $$ ANZ335-338-312200- /O.CON.KOKX.SC.Y.0012.210131T2300Z-210201T1100Z/ /O.UPG.KOKX.GL.A.0003.210201T1100Z-210202T1100Z/ /O.EXB.KOKX.GL.W.0006.210201T1100Z-210202T1100Z/ Long Island Sound West of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY- New York Harbor- 346 AM EST Sun Jan 31 2021 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST MONDAY... ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...For the Gale Warning, northeast winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 45 kt. Seas 3 to 6 feet expected on the Sound. For the Small Craft Advisory, northeast winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 4 feet expected on the Sound. * WHERE...Western Long Island Sound, and New York Harbor. * WHEN...For the Gale Warning, from 6 AM Monday to 6 AM EST Tuesday. For the Small Craft Advisory, from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EST Monday. * IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for severe conditions. && $$ For more details, see the Coastal Waters Forecast from National Weather Service New York NY, or visit https://www.weather.gov/okx/marine
605 WHUS71 KOKX 312135 MWWOKX URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Upton NY 435 PM EST Sun Jan 31 2021 ANZ350-353-355-011100- /O.CON.KOKX.GL.W.0006.210131T2300Z-210201T1100Z/ /O.CON.KOKX.SR.W.0001.210201T1100Z-210202T1100Z/ Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY out 20 nm- Fire Island Inlet NY to Moriches Inlet NY out 20 nm- Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 nm- 435 PM EST Sun Jan 31 2021 ...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST MONDAY... ...STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...For the Storm Warning, northeast winds 35 to 45 kt with gusts up to 55 kt and seas 12 to 17 feet expected. For the Gale Warning, east winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt and seas 5 to 8 feet expected. * WHERE...The ocean waters south of Long Island out 20 nm. * WHEN...For the Storm Warning, from 6 AM Monday to 6 AM EST Tuesday. For the Gale Warning, from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EST Monday. * IMPACTS...Very strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Mariners should remain in port, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for severe conditions. && $$ ANZ335-338-011100- /O.CON.KOKX.SC.Y.0012.210131T2300Z-210201T1100Z/ /O.CON.KOKX.GL.W.0006.210201T1100Z-210202T1100Z/ Long Island Sound West of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY- New York Harbor- 435 PM EST Sun Jan 31 2021 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST MONDAY... ...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...For the Gale Warning, northeast winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 45 kt. Seas 3 to 6 feet expected on the Sound. For the Small Craft Advisory, northeast winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 4 feet expected on the Sound. * WHERE...Western Long Island Sound, and New York Harbor. * WHEN...For the Gale Warning, from 6 AM Monday to 6 AM EST Tuesday. For the Small Craft Advisory, from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EST Monday. * IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for severe conditions. && $$ ANZ330-340-345-011100- /O.CON.KOKX.SC.Y.0012.210131T2300Z-210201T1100Z/ /O.CON.KOKX.SR.W.0001.210201T1100Z-210202T1100Z/ Long Island Sound East of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY- Peconic and Gardiners Bays- South Shore Bays from Jones Inlet through Shinnecock Bay- 435 PM EST Sun Jan 31 2021 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST MONDAY... ...STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...For the Storm Warning, northeast winds 25 to 35 kt with gusts up to 50 kt. Seas 4 to 8 feet expected on the Sound. For the Small Craft Advisory, east winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 4 feet expected on the Sound. * WHERE...The south shore and eastern bays of Long Island, and Eastern Long Island Sound. * WHEN...For the Storm Warning, from 6 AM Monday to 6 AM EST Tuesday. For the Small Craft Advisory, from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EST Monday. * IMPACTS...Very strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Mariners should remain in port, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for severe conditions. && $$ For more details, see the Coastal Waters Forecast from National Weather Service New York NY, or visit https://www.weather.gov/okx/marine
431 WHUS71 KOKX 010849 MWWOKX URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Upton NY 349 AM EST Mon Feb 1 2021 ANZ350-353-355-020315- /O.CAN.KOKX.GL.W.0006.000000T0000Z-210201T1100Z/ /O.EXT.KOKX.SR.W.0001.210201T0849Z-210202T1100Z/ Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY out 20 nm- Fire Island Inlet NY to Moriches Inlet NY out 20 nm- Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 nm- 349 AM EST Mon Feb 1 2021 ...STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Northeast winds 35 to 45 kt with gusts up to 55 kt and seas 13 to 18 feet. * WHERE...The ocean waters south of Long Island out 20 nm. * WHEN...Until 6 AM EST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Very strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Mariners should remain in port, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for severe conditions. && $$ ANZ335-338-020315- /O.CAN.KOKX.SC.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-210201T1100Z/ /O.EXT.KOKX.GL.W.0006.210201T0849Z-210202T1100Z/ Long Island Sound West of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY- New York Harbor- 349 AM EST Mon Feb 1 2021 ...GALE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Northeast winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 45 kt and seas 3 to 6 feet. * WHERE...Western Long Island Sound, and New York Harbor. * WHEN...Until 6 AM EST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for severe conditions. && $$ ANZ330-340-345-020315- /O.CAN.KOKX.SC.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-210201T1100Z/ /O.EXT.KOKX.SR.W.0001.210201T0849Z-210202T1100Z/ Long Island Sound East of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY- Peconic and Gardiners Bays- South Shore Bays from Jones Inlet through Shinnecock Bay- 349 AM EST Mon Feb 1 2021 ...STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Northeast winds 25 to 35 kt with gusts up to 55 kt and seas 4 to 8 feet. * WHERE...The south shore and eastern bays of Long Island, and Eastern Long Island Sound. * WHEN...Until 6 AM EST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Very strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Mariners should remain in port, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for severe conditions. && $$ For more details, see the Coastal Waters Forecast from National Weather Service New York NY, or visit https://www.weather.gov/okx/marine
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this small craft advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS New York, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this small craft advisory went out at Jan 30, 12:35 PM EST, 3 hours 9 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jan 30, 12:35 PM EST, 3 hours 9 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1235 PM EST Sat Jan 30 2021
.SYNOPSIS...
Strong high pressure will slowly build in from the west this
afternoon into tonight. Meanwhile, a storm system will gather
across the Plains today, continue to track across the country on
Sunday, and impact the area during the beginning of next week.
A significant winter storm is possible.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Forecast remains mainly on track this afternoon. Made minor
adjustments to dewpoints and temperatures as well as max
temperatures to better match hourly trends. Sky conditions
remain clear with a sunny day expected but high temperatures
will be limited to mainly near 25 to 30 degrees.
Fair wx today and tngt as high pressure builds in from the north
and west. The NBM with the typical local adjustments was
followed closely for this period. It will be blustery and cold
today with wind chills not getting out of the teens. Temps today
and tngt about 10 degrees blw normal.
Increasing clouds on Sun. Theta-e ridge begins to build into the
area late. The challenge is whether any flakes will fall before
dark. The modeling suggests lgt pcpn begins right around 00Z
for swrn portions of the cwa. Slight chances for only the
extreme swrn corner of the fcst area before 00Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The 00Z modeling has increased confidence in the occurrence of
a significant storm, but not eliminated any of the fcst
uncertainty wrt the details.
There still remains a high amount of uncertainty regarding the
rain/snow line as we get into Mon. With strong ely flow, it is
likely a coastal front sets up across sern LI. The challenge is
how much it pivots nwwd, and how much warm air aloft works into
the sys. The latter is highly track dependent. The ECMWF is the
warmest soln, with the NAM and GFS much colder.
The heaviest pcpn looks to occur during the day on Mon,
extending into early Mon ngt. A lingering band may then set up
somewhere in or near the cwa for the rest of the ngt as the
storm is slow to pull away.
A particularly deep low is not expected to develop with this
sys. However, there will be a tight gradient due to a 1030s high
sitting over Quebec. As a result, strong winds are likely with
this storm, and speeds have been ramped up in the fcst. Gusts to
around 60 mph seem likely at the peak of the storm, especially
ern LI.
A winter storm watch has been issued for most of the area. The
Twin Forks and sern New London have not been included attm
because of mixing concerns. If the models maintain a GFS/NAM
type track, the north fork and sern New London will likely need
to be included. The south for will be difficult due to the cstl
front. Orange county was not included in the watch as well.
This area may be too far west of the heaviest snow axis,
yielding lower confidence. It is possible this area may need to
be included in the future iterations if confidence increases.
A high wind watch/warning may be needed for the coastal areas
not covered by the winter storm watch. Otherwise, the wsw covers
wind hazards.
The low is still expected to linger over the area and not get
completely out until Tue ngt. As the strong advection cease,
pcpn rates are likely to be lower, with any banding more
sporadic thru the day on Tue and into Tue ngt.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Rising heights aloft are progged Wednesday into Wednesday night
as a ridge builds towards the region. The next frontal system
may approach at the end of the week. Temperatures should
moderate on Wednesday and trend above normal by the end of the
week.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure slowly builds towards the region from the west
into this evening.
VFR. NW winds (averaging right of 310 magnetic) of 10 to 15 kt
with gusts to 20 kt. Winds and gusts should diminish quickly
after sundown.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Gusts this afternoon could be only occasional.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.Sunday aftn...VFR.
.Sunday night through Monday night...IFR/LIFR with snow. Snow
likely develop Sun Night, periods of heavy snow and VLIFR
possible Monday into Monday Evening, periods of light to
moderate snow (wintry mix KISP/KGON) Mon Night into Tue. NE wind
20-30G35-40kt late Sunday Night into Monday night.
.Tuesday...IFR and periods of snow (wintry mix KISP/GON). N
Winds 15-25G25-35kt.
.Wednesday...VFR. NW wind 15-20G25-35kt.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
SCA remains for all waters for this afternoon. While gusts have
been closer to 20 kt for the last few hours, daytime maximum
vertical mixing in the mid to late afternoon is still forecast
to allow for higher gusts closer to 25 kt.
Winds and waves subside tngt, then ramp up Sun ngt at low pres
begins to approach from the w. The low deepens off the midatlc
Mon, with storm and gale force winds possible across the waters.
Watches have been issued. Seas will build to at least 15 ft on
the ocean, and may approach 8 ft on portions of the Sound. The
storm slowly pulls away Tue and Wed.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are anticipated through next Fri.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Gale to storm force northeast winds will develop late Sunday Night
and ramp up through Monday evening, before backing north and
subsiding to gales Monday Night into Tuesday. This in response to a
slow moving Nor'easter affecting the area.
With tidal departures of generally 1 1/2 to 2 1/2 ft needed for
minor flood thresholds to be exceeded, and 2 1/2 to 3 1/2 ft for
moderate coastal flooding to be exceeded, the potential for several
high tide cycles producing minor to moderate to coastal flooding
exist Monday into Tuesday.
At this point, widespread minor looks likely for the Monday
morning/early afternoon high tide with localized moderate along
south shore bays of Nassau County and possibly along the north shore
of NW LI(wave action) as gale/storm force winds are ramping up.
The Monday Night high tide looks like potential for more
widespread moderate coastal flooding for LI N&S south shores
including twin forks and Peconic Bay as surge likely peaks at 3 to 3
1/2 ft in many spots. Elsewhere widespread generally minor impacts
likely. The uncertainty with magnitude of surge is how much do winds
back to the north Monday Eve/Night, perhaps mitigating the magnitude
of surge in spots, but a long and strong easterly fetch, 15-20 ft
easterly swells, and tidal piling are good signals for moderate
coastal impacts in this case. North facing shorelines in these areas
will be most susceptible to coastal impacts Monday Night with
gale/storm NNE winds and accompanying high wave action.
In addition to the multiple high tidal cycles with elevated water
levels, breaking waves of 5-10 ft are likely at the oceanfront with
a strong e to w sweep, bringing potential for widespread dune
erosion and localized washovers. Peak impacts likely for the Monday
Night and Tue Am high tidal cycle. On LI Sound, breaking waves of 3
to 4 ft are possible on N & E facing shorelines with Monday aft high
tide, and possibly as high as 4 to 6 ft on north facing shorelines
Monday Night as strong gale winds back to the NNE.
Another round or two of minor to locally moderate coastal flooding
is likely Tuesday, with the LI south shore bays most vulnerable to
moderate impacts.
A coastal flood watch has been issued for the moderate coastal flood
potential during the Monday tidal cycles.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Winter Storm Watch from late Sunday night through late Monday
night for CTZ005>011.
NY...Coastal Flood Watch from Monday evening through late Monday
night for NYZ078>081-177.
Winter Storm Watch from late Sunday night through late Monday
night for NYZ068>075-078-080-176>179.
Coastal Flood Watch from Monday morning through late Monday
night for NYZ179.
Coastal Flood Watch from Monday evening through late Monday
night for NYZ178.
NJ...Winter Storm Watch from late Sunday night through late Monday
night for NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...Gale Watch from Sunday evening through late Monday night for
ANZ330-335-338-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ330-
335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
Storm Watch from Monday morning through late Monday night for
ANZ350-353-355.
&&
SYNOPSIS...JMC
NEAR TERM...JMC/JM
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JMC/JM
HYDROLOGY...JMC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NVHazardous weather outlook, Jan 30, 3:45 AM EST, 11 hours 59 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service New York NY 345 AM EST Sat Jan 30 2021 CTZ005>011-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ068>075-176-310845- Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex- Northern New London-Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven- Southern Middlesex-Western Passaic-Eastern Passaic-Hudson- Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex- Western Union-Eastern Union-Putnam-Rockland-Northern Westchester- Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx- Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northern Queens- 345 AM EST Sat Jan 30 2021 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut, northeast New Jersey and southeast New York. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Winter Storm Watch. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed. Please safely report significant weather conditions while following local, state, and CDC guidelines. && This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in effect are highlighted. Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS warning criteria. NYZ067-310845- Orange- 345 AM EST Sat Jan 30 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast New York. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. Heavy snow, with accumulations of 6 inches or more, is possible Monday into Tuesday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will likely be needed. Please safely report significant weather conditions while following local, state, and CDC guidelines. && This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in effect are highlighted. Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS warning criteria. NYZ178-310845- Southern Queens- 345 AM EST Sat Jan 30 2021 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT... ...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast New York. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Winter Storm Watch. Coastal Flood Watch. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed. Please safely report significant weather conditions while following local, state, and CDC guidelines. && This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in effect are highlighted. Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS warning criteria. NYZ078-080-177-310845- Northwestern Suffolk-Southwestern Suffolk-Northern Nassau- 345 AM EST Sat Jan 30 2021 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT... ...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast New York. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Winter Storm Watch. Coastal Flood Watch. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed. Please safely report significant weather conditions while following local, state, and CDC guidelines. && This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in effect are highlighted. Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS warning criteria. NYZ179-310845- Southern Nassau- 345 AM EST Sat Jan 30 2021 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT... ...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast New York. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Winter Storm Watch. Coastal Flood Watch. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed. Please safely report significant weather conditions while following local, state, and CDC guidelines. && This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in effect are highlighted. Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS warning criteria. ANZ330-335-338-340-345-310845- Long Island Sound East of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY- Long Island Sound West of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY- New York Harbor-Peconic and Gardiners Bays- South Shore Bays from Jones Inlet through Shinnecock Bay- 345 AM EST Sat Jan 30 2021 ...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Gale Watch. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed. Please safely report significant weather conditions while following local, state, and CDC guidelines. && This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in effect are highlighted. Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS warning criteria. ANZ350-353-355-310845- Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY out 20 nm- Fire Island Inlet NY to Moriches Inlet NY out 20 nm- Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 nm- 345 AM EST Sat Jan 30 2021 ...STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Storm Watch. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed. Please safely report significant weather conditions while following local, state, and CDC guidelines. && This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in effect are highlighted. Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS warning criteria. NYZ079-081-310845- Northeastern Suffolk-Southeastern Suffolk- 345 AM EST Sat Jan 30 2021 ...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast New York. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Coastal Flood Watch. In addition to the coastal flood threat, heavy snow and rain, along with damaging winds, are possible Monday into Tuesday. Snowfall accumulations of 6 inches or more are possible, especially west of the Twin Forks. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed. Please safely report significant weather conditions while following local, state, and CDC guidelines. && This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in effect are highlighted. Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS warning criteria. CTZ012-310845- Southern New London- 345 AM EST Sat Jan 30 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. Heavy snow, possibly mixing with or changing to rain, can be expected Monday into Tuesday. Accumulations of 6 inches or more are possible. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed. Please safely report significant weather conditions while following local, state, and CDC guidelines. && This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in effect are highlighted. Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS warning criteria.
The office that day
Everything else NWS New York, NY issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 30, 12:02 AM EST | Small Craft Advisory | OKX | 18 hr | |
| Jan 30, 3:40 AM EST | Winter Storm Watch | OKX | Bronx, Kings, Nassau, New York, Orange, Putnam and 5 more | 36 hr |
| Jan 30, 3:42 AM EST | Gale Watch | OKX | 24 hr | |
| Jan 30, 3:42 AM EST | Storm Watch | OKX | 24 hr | |
| Jan 30, 4:20 AM EST | Coastal Flood Watch | OKX | Nassau, Queens, Suffolk | 24 hr |
| Jan 30, 3:44 PM EST | Gale Warning | OKX | 66 hr |
Nearby
Small Craft Advisories in New York, 2021Every small craft advisory in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.