Alert archive / New York / Flash Flood Watches in 2021
Flash Flood Watch 10, NWS New York, NY
NWS New York, NY issued this flash flood watch at Sep 22, 2021, 3:21 PM EDT for 5 counties in New Jersey; 10 counties in New York; Greater Bridgeport Planning Region, Connecticut. It took effect at Sep 23, 2021, 4:00 PM EDT. It was in force for 10 hr.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Sep 22, 2021, 3:21 PM EDT (19:21 UTC)
- In effect from
- Sep 23, 2021, 4:00 PM EDT
- Expired
- Sep 24, 2021, 2:19 AM EDT
- In force
- 10 hr
- Issued by
- NWS New York, NY
- Flood severity
- None
Counties Greater Bridgeport Planning Region, CT, Bergen County, NJ, Essex County, NJ, Hudson County, NJ, Passaic County, NJ, Union County, NJ, Bronx County, NY, Kings County, NY, Nassau County, NY, New York County, NY, Orange County, NY, Putnam County, NY, Queens County, NY, Richmond County, NY, Rockland County, NY, Westchester County, NY
The radar
The Brookhaven radar (KOKX), 93 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:24 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Brookhaven, NY (KOKX), launched 12:00Z, 7.4 hours before the alert went out and 93 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 96 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -4 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 506 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 29 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 99 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 135 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.4
The text
As transmitted.
523 WGUS61 KOKX 221921 FFAOKX URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Flood Watch National Weather Service New York NY 321 PM EDT Wed Sep 22 2021 CTZ009-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-176>179-230330- /O.NEW.KOKX.FF.A.0010.210923T2000Z-210924T1200Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Southern Fairfield-Western Passaic-Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Union- Eastern Union-Orange-Putnam-Rockland-Northern Westchester-Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)- Kings (Brooklyn)-Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens- Southern Nassau- 321 PM EDT Wed Sep 22 2021 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING... The National Weather Service in Upton has issued a * Flash Flood Watch for portions of southern Connecticut, northeast New Jersey and southeast New York, including the following areas, in southern Connecticut, Southern Fairfield. In northeast New Jersey, Eastern Bergen, Eastern Essex, Eastern Passaic, Eastern Union, Hudson, Western Bergen, Western Essex, Western Passaic and Western Union. In southeast New York, Bronx, Kings (Brooklyn), New York (Manhattan), Northern Nassau, Northern Queens, Northern Westchester, Orange, Putnam, Richmond (Staten Island), Rockland, Southern Nassau, Southern Queens and Southern Westchester. * From Thursday afternoon through Friday morning. * A period of heavy rainfall is likely with the passage of a cold front Thursday afternoon into Friday morning. A widespread 1-2 inches with locally higher amounts are possible. The rainfall combined with wet antecedent conditions will result in flash flooding. * Locally heavy rainfall may produce flash flooding. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued. && $$ DBR
6 follow-up statements
344 WGUS61 KOKX 230220 FFAOKX Flood Watch National Weather Service New York NY 1020 PM EDT Wed Sep 22 2021 CTZ009-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-176>179-230930- /O.CON.KOKX.FF.A.0010.210923T2000Z-210924T1200Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Southern Fairfield-Western Passaic-Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Union- Eastern Union-Orange-Putnam-Rockland-Northern Westchester-Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)- Kings (Brooklyn)-Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens- Southern Nassau- 1020 PM EDT Wed Sep 22 2021 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING... The Flash Flood Watch continues for * Portions of southern Connecticut, northeast New Jersey and southeast New York, including the following areas, in southern Connecticut, Southern Fairfield. In northeast New Jersey, Eastern Bergen, Eastern Essex, Eastern Passaic, Eastern Union, Hudson, Western Bergen, Western Essex, Western Passaic and Western Union. In southeast New York, Bronx, Kings (Brooklyn), New York (Manhattan), Northern Nassau, Northern Queens, Northern Westchester, Orange, Putnam, Richmond (Staten Island), Rockland, Southern Nassau, Southern Queens and Southern Westchester. * From Thursday afternoon through Friday morning. * A period of heavy rainfall is likely with the passage of a cold front Thursday afternoon into Friday morning. A widespread 1-2 inches with locally higher amounts are possible. The rainfall combined with wet antecedent conditions will result in flash flooding. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued. && $$
081 WGUS61 KOKX 230806 FFAOKX URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Flood Watch National Weather Service New York NY 406 AM EDT Thu Sep 23 2021 CTZ005-232015- /O.EXA.KOKX.FF.A.0010.210923T2000Z-210924T1200Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Northern Fairfield- 406 AM EDT Thu Sep 23 2021 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING... The National Weather Service in Upton has expanded the * Flash Flood Watch to include a portion of southern Connecticut, including the following area, Northern Fairfield. * From 4 PM EDT this afternoon through Friday morning. * A period of heavy showers and embedded thunderstorms is expected with the approach of a cold front this afternoon into Friday morning. A widespread 1 to 2 inches of rain are likely with locally higher amounts possible. The rainfall combined with wet antecedent conditions in a short period of time will lead to increased potential for flash flooding. Scattered flash flooding of urban and poor drainage areas is possible. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued. && $$ CTZ009-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-176>179-232015- /O.CON.KOKX.FF.A.0010.210923T2000Z-210924T1200Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Southern Fairfield-Western Passaic-Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Union- Eastern Union-Orange-Putnam-Rockland-Northern Westchester-Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)- Kings (Brooklyn)-Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens- Southern Nassau- 406 AM EDT Thu Sep 23 2021 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING... The Flash Flood Watch continues for * Portions of southern Connecticut, northeast New Jersey and southeast New York, including the following areas, in southern Connecticut, Southern Fairfield. In northeast New Jersey, Eastern Bergen, Eastern Essex, Eastern Passaic, Eastern Union, Hudson, Western Bergen, Western Essex, Western Passaic and Western Union. In southeast New York, Bronx, Kings (Brooklyn), New York (Manhattan), Northern Nassau, Northern Queens, Northern Westchester, Orange, Putnam, Richmond (Staten Island), Rockland, Southern Nassau, Southern Queens and Southern Westchester. * From 4 PM EDT this afternoon through Friday morning. * A period of heavy showers and embedded thunderstorms is expected with the approach of a cold front this afternoon into Friday morning. A widespread 1 to 2 inches of rain are likely with locally higher amounts possible. The rainfall combined with wet antecedent conditions in a short period of time will lead to increased potential for flash flooding. Scattered flash flooding of urban and poor drainage areas is possible. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued. && $$ JM
953 WGUS61 KOKX 231934 FFAOKX Flood Watch National Weather Service New York NY 334 PM EDT Thu Sep 23 2021 CTZ005-009-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-176>179-241000- /O.CON.KOKX.FF.A.0010.210923T2000Z-210924T1200Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Northern Fairfield-Southern Fairfield-Western Passaic-Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-Orange-Putnam-Rockland-Northern Westchester-Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northern Queens-Northern Nassau- Southern Queens-Southern Nassau- 334 PM EDT Thu Sep 23 2021 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING... The Flash Flood Watch continues for * Portions of southern Connecticut, northeast New Jersey and southeast New York, including the following areas, in southern Connecticut, Northern Fairfield and Southern Fairfield. In northeast New Jersey, Eastern Bergen, Eastern Essex, Eastern Passaic, Eastern Union, Hudson, Western Bergen, Western Essex, Western Passaic and Western Union. In southeast New York, Bronx, Kings (Brooklyn), New York (Manhattan), Northern Nassau, Northern Queens, Northern Westchester, Orange, Putnam, Richmond (Staten Island), Rockland, Southern Nassau, Southern Queens and Southern Westchester. * Through Friday morning. * A period of heavy showers and embedded thunderstorms is expected with the approach of a cold front tonight into Friday morning. A widespread 1 to 2 inches of rain are likely with locally higher amounts possible. The rainfall combined with wet antecedent conditions in a short period of time will lead to increased potential for flash flooding. Scattered flash flooding of urban and poor drainage areas is possible. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued. && $$
873 WGUS61 KOKX 240319 FFAOKX Flood Watch National Weather Service New York NY 1119 PM EDT Thu Sep 23 2021 NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-240430- /O.CAN.KOKX.FF.A.0010.000000T0000Z-210924T1200Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Western Passaic-Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen- Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-Orange- Putnam-Rockland-Northern Westchester-Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)- 1119 PM EDT Thu Sep 23 2021 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED... The Flash Flood Watch for portions of northeast New Jersey and southeast New York, including the following areas, in northeast New Jersey, Eastern Bergen, Eastern Essex, Eastern Passaic, Eastern Union, Hudson, Western Bergen, Western Essex, Western Passaic and Western Union. In southeast New York, Bronx, Kings (Brooklyn), New York (Manhattan), Northern Westchester, Orange, Putnam, Richmond (Staten Island), Rockland and Southern Westchester has been cancelled. The Flood Watch is cancelled. $$ CTZ005-009-NYZ176>179-241130- /O.CON.KOKX.FF.A.0010.000000T0000Z-210924T1200Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Northern Fairfield-Southern Fairfield-Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau- 1119 PM EDT Thu Sep 23 2021 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY... The Flash Flood Watch continues for * Portions of southern Connecticut and southeast New York, including the following areas, in southern Connecticut, Northern Fairfield and Southern Fairfield. In southeast New York, Northern Nassau, Northern Queens, Southern Nassau and Southern Queens. * Until 8 AM EDT Friday. * A period of heavy rainfall is likely with the passage of a cold front Thursday afternoon into Friday morning. A widespread 1-2 inches with locally higher amounts are possible. The rainfall combined with wet antecedent conditions will result in flash flooding. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued. && $$ Fig
629 WGUS61 KOKX 240530 FFAOKX Flood Watch National Weather Service New York NY 130 AM EDT Fri Sep 24 2021 NYZ176-178-240630- /O.CAN.KOKX.FF.A.0010.000000T0000Z-210924T1200Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Northern Queens-Southern Queens- 130 AM EDT Fri Sep 24 2021 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED... The Flash Flood Watch for a portion of southeast New York, including the following areas, Northern Queens and Southern Queens has been cancelled. The Flood Watch is cancelled. $$ CTZ005-009-NYZ177-179-241200- /O.CON.KOKX.FF.A.0010.000000T0000Z-210924T1200Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Northern Fairfield-Southern Fairfield-Northern Nassau-Southern Nassau- 130 AM EDT Fri Sep 24 2021 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING... The Flash Flood Watch continues for * Portions of southern Connecticut and southeast New York, including the following areas, in southern Connecticut, Northern Fairfield and Southern Fairfield. In southeast New York, Northern Nassau and Southern Nassau. * Until 8 AM EDT this morning. * A period of heavy rainfall is likely with the passage of a cold front Thursday afternoon into Friday morning. A widespread 1-2 inches with locally higher amounts are possible. The rainfall combined with wet antecedent conditions will result in flash flooding. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued. && $$ Fig
948 WGUS61 KOKX 240619 FFAOKX Flood Watch National Weather Service New York NY 219 AM EDT Fri Sep 24 2021 CTZ005-009-NYZ177-179-240730- /O.CAN.KOKX.FF.A.0010.000000T0000Z-210924T1200Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Northern Fairfield-Southern Fairfield-Northern Nassau-Southern Nassau- 219 AM EDT Fri Sep 24 2021 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED... The Flash Flood Watch for portions of southern Connecticut and southeast New York, including the following areas, in southern Connecticut, Northern Fairfield and Southern Fairfield. In southeast New York, Northern Nassau and Southern Nassau has been cancelled. The Flood Watch is cancelled. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a threat. Please continue to heed remaining road closures. $$ Fig
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this flash flood watch went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS New York, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood watch went out at Sep 22, 2:13 PM EDT, 1 hour 8 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Sep 22, 2:13 PM EDT, 1 hour 8 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
213 PM EDT Wed Sep 22 2021
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the Canadian Maritimes gradually gives way to
a slowly approaching frontal system Thursday into Friday. The
associated cold front will track slowly across the region
Friday into Friday night. A weakening cold front passes through
late Saturday night. High pressure remains to the south through
Monday. A weak disturbance may move through late Monday into
Monday night. Another cold front moves through Tuesday night.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Latest GOES-16 6.2 micron water vapor imagery depicting potent
upper low approaching the OH Valley. To the east, high pressure
is nosing back to the west ever so slightly. Moisture advection
and shower activity continue under broad southerly flow in
between these features. Precipitation activity was confined
across southern CT and over eastern Long Island at this time.
Mostly cloudy skies will continue through the afternoon, with
breaks in the clouds now appearing for NYC and parts of the
Lower Hudson Valley and northeast NJ.
High pressure will continue to slowly move farther
out into the Atlantic from the Canadian Maritimes. Ahead of an
approaching frontal system southwest of the region, increasing
SE flow will give increase the low level warm and moist air
advection. 900mb temperatures are forecast to be a few degrees
warmer than 900mb temperatures of the previous day across the
local region.
Therefore, despite abundant clouds, increased low level SE
winds, and some widely scattered rain shower activity, high
temperatures are forecast to reach the mid 70s to near 80 with
daytime adiabatic mixing. The rain shower activity will
increase this afternoon with daytime heating and instability
increase with relatively higher chances for most western
sections of the region that will be more on the western edge of
a departing upper level ridge.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
For tonight, the upper level low moves slowly northward within
the Ohio Valley with the local area being on the extreme western
edge of the upper level ridge.
For tonight, the SE flow remains steady along the coast with a
lighter SE breeze for inland locations. The chance for rain
showers remains, especially for the western half of the region.
It will be getting relatively more humid as low temperatures
only drop into the mid 60s to near 70.
For Thursday through Friday, there will be more meridional flow
as the cutoff mid and upper level lows approach from the west.
The increased southerly flow in the atmospheric column will
increase the precipitable water. Layer PW approaches 2 inches.
Highest low to mid level omega enters Thursday night. There will
be moderate to heavy rain showers Thursday night.
Parent low at surface back in Great Lakes will be slightly
weakening as it further occludes. Frontal system ahead of it
slowly approaches Thursday and then moves across region Thursday
night through Friday. Frontal system does not have much of any
secondary low development along it for the time being. Rain
shower probabilities increase to likely on Thursday with a
slight chance of thunderstorms. Rain shower probabilities
become categorical Thursday night and there will be a chance for
thunderstorms, especially for Thursday night as that is when
there will be elevated instability within the region. Bulk shear
from 0-6 km above the ground increases to 25-30 kt and
hodographs on forecast model soundings exhibit some clockwise
turning of winds in the low levels, so there will be a marginal
threat for damaging winds and an isolated tornado possibility.
HRRR showed some positive values of total 0-6km max updraft
helicity near western parts of the region Thursday night.
There will be some minor flood potential as well across the
region with a very low chance of flash flooding, especially for
more western sections. Training of thunderstorms can be
expected with nearly parallel flow from to low to upper levels.
High precipitable water of 1.8 to 2 inches will be in place,
well above the OKX sounding climatology's 90th percentile of
just over 1.5 inches for September 24th 00Z.
Much of the most intense rainfall with 2-5 inches occurring
within 36 hour period appeared across more interior areas like
central PA, into Central NY State according to NAM, GFS, ECMWF
but Canadian is farther east and gets more into the local region
with near to a little above 2 inch rainfall amounts. New runs
of Canadian and GFS shift the heaviest rainfall farther east,
with 2+ inch amounts getting into more of the western parts of
the region. The lack of forecast storm total rain amounts above
2 inches and uncertainty with the trend of the axis of heaviest
rain are reasons why flash flood watch was not issued at this
time. However, did mention the marginal flash flood risk and
marginal severe risk in the HWO for western parts of the region.
Behind the cold front associated with the frontal system, dry
and less humid air gets re-established across the region late
Friday from west to east.
Temperatures are forecast to be above normal for today through
Thursday night with highs in the upper 70s to near 80 and lows
in the mid 60s to near 70. Temperatures are then forecast to
lower back towards near normal levels for Friday with highs
mainly in the lower 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The front should be completely through the area by late Friday
night, with a cooler and drier airmass briefly building in behind
it. There continues to be some differences with timing of the
frontal passage, so ending time of precipitation is still a bit
uncertain, but thinking is that the ECMWF keeps precipitation in the
area a bit too long. Most of the rain should end late Friday night,
with some lingering showers for eastern areas Saturday morning. With
far northwestern areas having the front pass through earlier Friday
night, radiational cooling conditions should allow lows to reach the
lower 50s in these locations. The rest of the area will see lows in
the lower 60s and upper 50s.
Off to the northwest, an upper level cutoff low digs down from
central Canada into the Great Lakes. This feature will send a
weakening cold front through the area late Saturday night. The best
dynamics looks to pass to our north and west, and therefore have
gone with a dry forecast, though a passing shower cannot be
completely ruled out.
High pressure remains to our south through Monday, with dry
conditions expected through then. Much less confidence moving into
early next week with large spread in guidance. The ECMWF looks to
bring another cold front through Monday night into Tuesday morning
from the low that settles over southeastern Canada. While the GFS
sends a piece of energy down from the cutoff low, sending a cold
front through Tuesday night into Wednesday. Due to uncertainty, went
with slight chance POPs Monday into Monday night, and late Tuesday
into Tuesday night.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A frontal boundary slowly approaches the region tonight and
Thursday.
Conditions have improved to VFR at all the area terminals,
however some pockets of MVFR cigs will still remain possible
through the afternoon. Tonight becomes somewhat tricky with
respect to ceilings. Most of the forecast guidance keeps the
JFK/LGA/ISP all VFR tonight. EWR/TEB could be on the fringe of
MVFR/VFR and MVFR expected at all the other terminals. By 12z
Thursday morning, all terminals become MVFR. Chance of showers
will increase after 18z on Thursday from west to east.
SE around 10-15kt winds now starting to gust in more locations.
Expect the gusts into the 20-25 kt range. Gusts diminish around
sunset this evening and increase once again Thursday morning.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Amendments expected for changing flight categories, especially
overnight.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.Thu...MVFR or lower possible in showers. Slight chance of
thunderstorms late afternoon into evening. SE/S winds 10-15 kt
gusts 20- 25 kt. SE-S winds near 10 kt with gusts more in the
15-20 kt range at night.
.Fri...MVFR or lower possible in showers. SW-W winds near 10 kt with
gusts 15-20 kt.
.Sat-Mon...VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
SCA conditions are forecast today on the ocean while non-ocean
waters have mainly below SCA conditions. There could be a few
occasional 25 kt gusts on the non-ocean waters for today but the
more frequent gusts to near 25 kt will be across the ocean
waters. For tonight through Friday, looking for SCA conditions
to continue on the ocean as seas build to near 6 ft. Non-ocean
waters will remain below mainly below SCA for tonight through
Friday.
Winds remain below 25 kt from Friday night onward.
5 ft waves on the ocean will diminish Friday night, falling below 5
ft by late Friday night. Wave build to 5 ft again on the ocean late
Sunday into Sunday night for the central and eastern ocean zones as
a west-southwest to west flow increases.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic concerns through tonight.
A slow moving cold front will bring moderate to heavy rain
showers Thursday night into Friday. There is still some
uncertainty with respect to the timing and total rain amounts.
Much of the precipitation falls between 18Z Thursday and 18Z
Friday. Total rain amounts forecast are mostly in the 1 to 2
inch range with amounts more in the 0.5 to 1 inch range across
Long Island and Southeast Connecticut. Localized higher than 2
inch amounts will be possible.
At this point, minor nuisance flooding will be a possibility in
poor drainage and low-lying areas with a low chance for flash
flooding.
With high soil moisture in these locations, and PWAT values
approaching 2", we will have to continue to monitor the
potential for flash flooding in these and surrounding areas.
Looking beyond Friday, there are no hydrologic concerns through
next Tuesday.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is a high risk for the development of rip currents today
through Thursday. Persistent southeasterly swells will allow for
ocean seas to build to 5 to 6 ft with max waves around the same
height in the surf zone accounting for orthogonal trajectories
to the coastline.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday evening for NYZ075-080-
081-178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ350-353-355.
&&
SYNOPSIS...JM/JP
NEAR TERM...JM/DBR
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...JM/JP
HYDROLOGY...JM/JP
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JMHazardous weather outlook, Sep 22, 5:15 AM EDT, 10 hours 6 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service New York NY 515 AM EDT Wed Sep 22 2021 NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>074-176-230915- Western Passaic-Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen- Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-Orange- Putnam-Rockland-Northern Westchester-Southern Westchester- New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)-Northern Queens- 515 AM EDT Wed Sep 22 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast New Jersey and southeast New York. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. With thunderstorms forecast Thursday afternoon into Friday morning, there is a marginal risk for some thunderstorms to be severe with damaging wind gusts. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. There is also a marginal risk for flash flooding with some thunderstorms. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed. && This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in effect are highlighted. Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS warning criteria. NYZ075-178-230915- Kings (Brooklyn)-Southern Queens- 515 AM EDT Wed Sep 22 2021 ...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast New York. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. High Rip Current Risk. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. High Rip Current Risk. In addition, with thunderstorms forecast Thursday afternoon into Friday morning, there is a marginal risk for some of thunderstorms to be severe with damaging wind gusts. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. There is also a marginal risk for flash flooding with some thunderstorms. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed. && This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in effect are highlighted. Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS warning criteria. ANZ335-338-355-230915- Long Island Sound West of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY- New York Harbor-Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 nm- 515 AM EDT Wed Sep 22 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. With thunderstorms forecast Thursday afternoon into Friday morning, there is a marginal risk for some thunderstorms to be severe with damaging wind gusts. An isolated waterspout cannot be ruled out. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed. && This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in effect are highlighted. Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS warning criteria. CTZ005>012-NYZ078-079-177-230915- Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex- Northern New London-Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven- Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-Northwest Suffolk- Northeast Suffolk-Northern Nassau- 515 AM EDT Wed Sep 22 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut and southeast New York. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time that would meet NWS warning criteria. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in effect are highlighted. Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS warning criteria. NYZ080-081-179-230915- Southwest Suffolk-Southeast Suffolk-Southern Nassau- 515 AM EDT Wed Sep 22 2021 ...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast New York. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. High Rip Current Risk. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. High Rip Current Risk. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in effect are highlighted. Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS warning criteria. ANZ331-332-340-345-350-353-230915- Long Island Sound East of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY to the Mouth of the Connecticut River- Long Island Sound East of the Mouth of the Connecticut River- Peconic and Gardiners Bays- South Shore Bays from Jones Inlet through Shinnecock Bay- Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY out 20 nm- Fire Island Inlet NY to Moriches Inlet NY out 20 nm- 515 AM EDT Wed Sep 22 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time that would meet NWS warning criteria. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in effect are highlighted. Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS warning criteria.
Nearby
Flash Flood Watches in New York, 2021Flash Flood Watches in New Jersey, 2021Flash Flood Watches in Connecticut, 2021Every flash flood watch in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.