Coastal Flood Statement 27, NWS New York, NY

098 
WHUS41 KOKX 090800
CFWOKX

Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service New York NY
400 AM EDT Sat Oct 9 2021

CTZ009-010-NYZ071-078-177-092000-
/O.CON.KOKX.CF.Y.0009.211009T1700Z-211009T2000Z/
Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-Southern Westchester-
Northwest Suffolk-Northern Nassau-
400 AM EDT Sat Oct 9 2021

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TO 4 PM EDT
THIS AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Up to one foot of inundation above ground level 
  expected in vulnerable areas near the waterfront and shoreline.

* WHERE...In Connecticut, Southern Fairfield and Southern New 
  Haven Counties. In New York, Southern Westchester, Northwest 
  Suffolk and Northern Nassau Counties.

* WHEN...Between 1 PM to 4 PM EDT today around the times of 
  high tide.

* IMPACTS...Minor flooding is expected in the more vulnerable 
  locations near the waterfront and shoreline. Some roads and 
  low lying properties including parking lots, parks, lawns, and 
  homes and businesses with basements near the waterfront will 
  experience minor flooding.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If travel is required, allow extra time as some roads may be
closed. Do not drive around barricades or through water of
unknown depth. Take the necessary actions to protect flood-prone
property.

&&

Time of high total tides are approximate to the nearest hour.

STAMFORD HARBOR AT STAMFORD CT
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 9.4 FT, MODERATE 11.0 FT, MAJOR 12.4 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.5 FT, MODERATE 3.1 FT, MAJOR 4.5 FT

             TOTAL      TOTAL    DEPARTURE                   
 DAY/TIME    TIDE       TIDE     FROM NORM   WAVES    FLOOD  
            FT MLLW    FT MHHW       FT       FT      IMPACT 
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 09/02 PM   9.9/10.4   2.0/ 2.5   0.7/ 1.1    1-2     MINOR    
 10/03 AM   8.6/ 9.1   0.7/ 1.1   0.6/ 1.1     2       NONE    
 10/03 PM   9.4/ 9.9   1.5/ 2.0   0.5/ 1.0     2      MINOR    
 11/03 AM   8.4/ 8.9   0.5/ 1.0   0.8/ 1.3     1       NONE    
 11/04 PM   8.9/ 9.4   1.0/ 1.5   0.5/ 1.0     1       NONE

BRIDGEPORT HARBOR AT BRIDGEPORT CT
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 8.9 FT, MODERATE 10.4 FT, MAJOR 11.4 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.6 FT, MODERATE 3.1 FT, MAJOR 4.1 FT

             TOTAL      TOTAL    DEPARTURE                   
 DAY/TIME    TIDE       TIDE     FROM NORM   WAVES    FLOOD  
            FT MLLW    FT MHHW       FT       FT      IMPACT 
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 09/02 PM   9.4/ 9.9   2.1/ 2.6   1.0/ 1.5     2      MINOR    
 10/03 AM   7.8/ 8.3   0.5/ 1.0   0.5/ 1.0     2       NONE    
 10/03 PM   8.8/ 9.3   1.5/ 2.0   0.6/ 1.1     2      MINOR    
 11/03 AM   7.7/ 8.2   0.4/ 0.9   0.7/ 1.1     2       NONE    
 11/04 PM   8.4/ 8.9   1.1/ 1.6   0.6/ 1.1     1       NONE

NEW HAVEN HARBOR AT NEW HAVEN CT
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 8.6 FT, MODERATE 9.2 FT, MAJOR 10.5 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.9 FT, MODERATE 2.5 FT, MAJOR 3.8 FT

             TOTAL      TOTAL    DEPARTURE                   
 DAY/TIME    TIDE       TIDE     FROM NORM   WAVES    FLOOD  
            FT MLLW    FT MHHW       FT       FT      IMPACT 
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 09/02 PM   8.6/ 9.1   1.9/ 2.3   0.8/ 1.3    1-2     MINOR    
 10/03 AM   7.1/ 7.6   0.4/ 0.9   0.5/ 1.0     1       NONE    
 10/03 PM   8.1/ 8.6   1.4/ 1.9   0.6/ 1.1    1-2      NONE    
 11/03 AM   6.9/ 7.4   0.2/ 0.7   0.6/ 1.1    1-2      NONE    
 11/04 PM   7.8/ 8.3   1.1/ 1.6   0.6/ 1.1     1       NONE

HUDSON RIVER AT PIERMONT NY
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 6.4 FT, MODERATE 7.4 FT, MAJOR 8.4 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 2.4 FT, MODERATE 3.4 FT, MAJOR 4.4 FT

             TOTAL      TOTAL    DEPARTURE                   
 DAY/TIME    TIDE       TIDE     FROM NORM   WAVES    FLOOD  
            FT MLLW    FT MHHW       FT       FT      IMPACT 
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 09/01 PM   5.2/ 5.7   1.2/ 1.7   0.8/ 1.3     0       NONE    
 10/01 AM   4.7/ 5.2   0.8/ 1.3   1.1/ 1.6     0       NONE    
 10/01 PM   5.2/ 5.7   1.2/ 1.7   0.9/ 1.4     0       NONE    
 11/02 AM   4.7/ 5.2   0.7/ 1.1   1.2/ 1.7     0       NONE    
 11/02 PM   5.0/ 5.5   1.0/ 1.5   0.9/ 1.4     0       NONE

LITTLE NECK BAY AT KINGS POINT NY
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 10.0 FT, MODERATE 10.5 FT, MAJOR 13.0 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 2.2 FT, MODERATE 2.7 FT, MAJOR 5.2 FT

             TOTAL      TOTAL    DEPARTURE                   
 DAY/TIME    TIDE       TIDE     FROM NORM   WAVES    FLOOD  
            FT MLLW    FT MHHW       FT       FT      IMPACT 
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 09/02 PM  10.2/10.7   2.3/ 2.8   0.9/ 1.4    1-2     MINOR    
 10/02 AM   8.4/ 8.9   0.6/ 1.1   0.5/ 1.0     1       NONE    
 10/03 PM   9.6/10.1   1.8/ 2.2   0.7/ 1.1     2       NONE    
 11/03 AM   8.1/ 8.6   0.2/ 0.8   0.6/ 1.1    1-2      NONE    
 11/04 PM   8.9/ 9.4   1.1/ 1.6   0.4/ 0.9     1       NONE

FLAX POND AT OLD FIELD NY
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 9.2 FT, MODERATE 10.2 FT, MAJOR 12.2 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.9 FT, MODERATE 2.9 FT, MAJOR 4.9 FT

             TOTAL      TOTAL    DEPARTURE                   
 DAY/TIME    TIDE       TIDE     FROM NORM   WAVES    FLOOD  
            FT MLLW    FT MHHW       FT       FT      IMPACT 
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 09/02 PM   9.3/ 9.8   2.0/ 2.5   0.9/ 1.4     2      MINOR    
 10/03 AM   7.8/ 8.4   0.6/ 1.1   0.6/ 1.1     2       NONE    
 10/03 PM   8.9/ 9.4   1.6/ 2.0   0.7/ 1.1     2       NONE    
 11/03 AM   7.8/ 8.3   0.5/ 1.0   0.8/ 1.3     2       NONE    
 11/04 PM   8.4/ 8.9   1.1/ 1.6   0.6/ 1.1    1-2      NONE

WEST POND AT GLEN COVE NY
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 10.1 FT, MODERATE 11.1 FT, MAJOR 13.1 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 2.2 FT, MODERATE 3.2 FT, MAJOR 5.2 FT

             TOTAL      TOTAL    DEPARTURE                   
 DAY/TIME    TIDE       TIDE     FROM NORM   WAVES    FLOOD  
            FT MLLW    FT MHHW       FT       FT      IMPACT 
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 09/02 PM  10.3/10.8   2.3/ 2.8   0.9/ 1.4    1-2     MINOR    
 10/02 AM   8.6/ 9.1   0.7/ 1.1   0.4/ 0.9     2       NONE    
 10/03 PM   9.8/10.3   1.9/ 2.3   0.6/ 1.1     2       NONE    
 11/03 AM   8.5/ 9.0   0.6/ 1.1   0.6/ 1.1     2       NONE    
 11/04 PM   9.0/ 9.5   1.1/ 1.6   0.2/ 0.8     1       NONE

&&

$$

NJZ006-106-108-NYZ074-075-178-091700-
/O.CON.KOKX.CF.Y.0009.211009T1400Z-211009T1700Z/
Hudson-Eastern Essex-Eastern Union-Richmond (Staten Island)-
Kings (Brooklyn)-Southern Queens-
400 AM EDT Sat Oct 9 2021

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS
MORNING TO 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Up to one foot of inundation above ground level 
  expected in vulnerable areas near the waterfront and shoreline.

* WHERE...In New Jersey, Hudson, Eastern Essex and Eastern Union 
  Counties. In New York, Richmond (Staten Island), Kings 
  (Brooklyn) and Southern Queens Counties.

* WHEN...Between 10 AM to 1 PM EDT today around the times of 
  high tide.

* IMPACTS...Minor flooding is expected in the more vulnerable 
  locations near the waterfront and shoreline. Some roads and 
  low lying properties including parking lots, parks, lawns, and 
  homes and businesses with basements near the waterfront will 
  experience minor flooding.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If travel is required, allow extra time as some roads may be
closed. Do not drive around barricades or through water of
unknown depth. Take the necessary actions to protect flood-prone
property.

&&

Time of high total tides are approximate to the nearest hour.

KILL VAN KULL AT BERGEN POINT NY
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 7.2 FT, MODERATE 8.5 FT, MAJOR 9.6 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.7 FT, MODERATE 3.0 FT, MAJOR 4.1 FT

             TOTAL      TOTAL    DEPARTURE                   
 DAY/TIME    TIDE       TIDE     FROM NORM   WAVES    FLOOD  
            FT MLLW    FT MHHW       FT       FT      IMPACT 
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 09/11 AM   7.3/ 7.8   1.8/ 2.2   0.9/ 1.4     1      MINOR    
 09/11 PM   6.7/ 7.2   1.2/ 1.7   1.2/ 1.7    1-2      NONE    
 10/11 AM   7.0/ 7.5   1.5/ 2.0   1.0/ 1.5    1-2     MINOR    
 11/01 AM   6.4/ 6.9   0.9/ 1.4   1.4/ 1.9    1-2      NONE    
 11/12 PM   6.8/ 7.3   1.3/ 1.8   1.0/ 1.5     1       NONE    
 12/01 AM   5.9/ 6.4   0.4/ 0.9   1.0/ 1.5     1       NONE


GREAT KILLS HARBOR AT GREAT KILLS NY
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 7.2 FT, MODERATE 8.2 FT, MAJOR 9.2 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.9 FT, MODERATE 2.9 FT, MAJOR 3.9 FT

             TOTAL      TOTAL    DEPARTURE                   
 DAY/TIME    TIDE       TIDE     FROM NORM   WAVES    FLOOD  
            FT MLLW    FT MHHW       FT       FT      IMPACT 
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 09/11 AM   7.2/ 7.7   1.9/ 2.3   0.8/ 1.3    1-2     MINOR    
 09/11 PM   6.5/ 7.0   1.2/ 1.7   1.2/ 1.7     2       NONE    
 10/11 AM   7.1/ 7.6   1.8/ 2.2   0.9/ 1.4     2      MINOR    
 11/12 AM   6.1/ 6.6   0.8/ 1.3   1.1/ 1.6     2       NONE    
 11/12 PM   6.8/ 7.3   1.5/ 2.0   0.8/ 1.3     1       NONE    
 12/01 AM   5.5/ 6.0   0.2/ 0.7   0.7/ 1.1     1       NONE

ROCKAWAY INLET NY NEAR FLOYD BENNETT FIELD NY
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 7.3 FT, MODERATE 8.3 FT, MAJOR 9.3 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.7 FT, MODERATE 2.7 FT, MAJOR 3.7 FT

             TOTAL      TOTAL    DEPARTURE                   
 DAY/TIME    TIDE       TIDE     FROM NORM   WAVES    FLOOD  
            FT MLLW    FT MHHW       FT       FT      IMPACT 
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 09/10 AM   7.4/ 7.9   1.8/ 2.2   1.0/ 1.5     2      MINOR    
 09/11 PM   6.7/ 7.2   1.1/ 1.6   1.3/ 1.8     3       NONE    
 10/11 AM   7.3/ 7.8   1.7/ 2.2   1.0/ 1.5     3      MINOR    
 11/12 AM   6.5/ 7.0   0.9/ 1.4   1.4/ 1.9    2-3      NONE    
 11/12 PM   7.0/ 7.5   1.4/ 1.9   0.9/ 1.4     2       NONE    
 12/01 AM   5.7/ 6.2   0.2/ 0.7   1.0/ 1.5     2       NONE

JAMAICA BAY AT INWOOD NY
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 7.5 FT, MODERATE 8.2 FT, MAJOR 9.0 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.6 FT, MODERATE 2.3 FT, MAJOR 3.1 FT

             TOTAL      TOTAL    DEPARTURE                   
 DAY/TIME    TIDE       TIDE     FROM NORM   WAVES    FLOOD  
            FT MLLW    FT MHHW       FT       FT      IMPACT 
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 09/11 AM   7.6/ 8.1   1.7/ 2.2   0.5/ 1.0     0      MINOR    
 10/12 AM   6.9/ 7.4   1.0/ 1.5   1.0/ 1.5     0       NONE    
 10/12 PM   7.5/ 8.0   1.6/ 2.0   0.6/ 1.1     0      MINOR    
 11/01 AM   6.7/ 7.2   0.8/ 1.3   1.1/ 1.6     0       NONE    
 11/01 PM   7.4/ 7.9   1.5/ 2.0   0.7/ 1.1     0      MINOR

EAST ROCKAWAY INLET AT ATLANTIC BEACH NY
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 6.0 FT, MODERATE 7.0 FT, MAJOR 8.0 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.0 FT, MODERATE 2.0 FT, MAJOR 3.0 FT

             TOTAL      TOTAL    DEPARTURE                   
 DAY/TIME    TIDE       TIDE     FROM NORM   WAVES    FLOOD  
            FT MLLW    FT MHHW       FT       FT      IMPACT 
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 09/10 AM   6.2/ 6.7   1.2/ 1.7   0.4/ 0.9    3-4     MINOR    
 09/11 PM   5.6/ 6.1   0.6/ 1.1   0.8/ 1.3     6       NONE    
 10/11 AM   6.1/ 6.6   1.1/ 1.6   0.5/ 1.0     7      MINOR    
 11/12 AM   5.4/ 5.9   0.4/ 0.9   0.9/ 1.4     8       NONE    
 11/12 PM   5.9/ 6.4   0.9/ 1.4   0.6/ 1.1    6-7     MINOR    
 12/01 AM   4.9/ 5.4  -0.2/ 0.3   0.6/ 1.1     5       NONE

&&

$$

NYZ179-091800-
/O.CON.KOKX.CF.Y.0009.211009T1400Z-211009T1800Z/
Southern Nassau-
400 AM EDT Sat Oct 9 2021

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS
MORNING TO 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Up to one foot of inundation above ground level 
  expected in vulnerable areas near the waterfront and shoreline.

* WHERE...Southern Nassau County.

* WHEN...Between 10 AM to 2 PM EDT today around the times of 
  high tide.

* IMPACTS...Minor flooding is expected in the more vulnerable 
  locations near the waterfront and shoreline. Some roads and 
  low lying properties including parking lots, parks, lawns, and 
  homes and businesses with basements near the waterfront will 
  experience minor flooding.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If travel is required, allow extra time as some roads may be
closed. Do not drive around barricades or through water of
unknown depth. Take the necessary actions to protect flood-prone
property.

&&

Time of high total tides are approximate to the nearest hour.

EAST ROCKAWAY INLET AT ATLANTIC BEACH NY
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 6.0 FT, MODERATE 7.0 FT, MAJOR 8.0 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.0 FT, MODERATE 2.0 FT, MAJOR 3.0 FT

             TOTAL      TOTAL    DEPARTURE                   
 DAY/TIME    TIDE       TIDE     FROM NORM   WAVES    FLOOD  
            FT MLLW    FT MHHW       FT       FT      IMPACT 
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 09/10 AM   6.2/ 6.7   1.2/ 1.7   0.4/ 0.9    3-4     MINOR    
 09/11 PM   5.6/ 6.1   0.6/ 1.1   0.8/ 1.3     6       NONE    
 10/11 AM   6.1/ 6.6   1.1/ 1.6   0.5/ 1.0     7      MINOR    
 11/12 AM   5.4/ 5.9   0.4/ 0.9   0.9/ 1.4     8       NONE    
 11/12 PM   5.9/ 6.4   0.9/ 1.4   0.6/ 1.1    6-7     MINOR    
 12/01 AM   4.9/ 5.4  -0.2/ 0.3   0.6/ 1.1     5       NONE

REYNOLDS CHANNEL AT POINT LOOKOUT NY
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 5.8 FT, MODERATE 6.8 FT, MAJOR 7.8 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.1 FT, MODERATE 2.1 FT, MAJOR 3.1 FT

             TOTAL      TOTAL    DEPARTURE                   
 DAY/TIME    TIDE       TIDE     FROM NORM   WAVES    FLOOD  
            FT MLLW    FT MHHW       FT       FT      IMPACT 
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 09/10 AM   6.1/ 6.6   1.4/ 1.9   1.4/ 1.9    3-4     MINOR    
 09/11 PM   5.6/ 6.1   0.9/ 1.4   1.7/ 2.2     6      MINOR    
 10/11 AM   6.0/ 6.5   1.3/ 1.8   1.4/ 1.9     7      MINOR    
 11/12 AM   5.5/ 6.0   0.8/ 1.3   1.8/ 2.2     8       NONE    
 11/11 AM   5.7/ 6.2   1.0/ 1.5   1.6/ 2.0    6-7     MINOR    
 12/01 AM   5.0/ 5.5   0.2/ 0.8   1.5/ 2.0     5       NONE

HUDSON BAY AT FREEPORT NY
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 6.0 FT, MODERATE 6.5 FT, MAJOR 7.2 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.4 FT, MODERATE 1.9 FT, MAJOR 2.6 FT

             TOTAL      TOTAL    DEPARTURE                   
 DAY/TIME    TIDE       TIDE     FROM NORM   WAVES    FLOOD  
            FT MLLW    FT MHHW       FT       FT      IMPACT 
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 09/11 AM   6.2/ 6.7   1.6/ 2.0   2.2/ 2.7    1-2     MINOR    
 10/12 AM   5.9/ 6.4   1.3/ 1.8   2.6/ 3.1     2      MINOR    
 10/12 PM   6.2/ 6.7   1.6/ 2.0   2.3/ 2.8     2      MINOR    
 11/01 AM   5.7/ 6.2   1.2/ 1.7   2.7/ 3.2     2      MINOR    
 11/01 PM   6.1/ 6.6   1.5/ 2.0   2.3/ 2.8     2      MINOR

&&

$$

NYZ072-091600-
/O.CON.KOKX.CF.S.0027.211009T1400Z-211009T1600Z/
New York (Manhattan)-
400 AM EDT Sat Oct 9 2021

...COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS
MORNING TO NOON EDT TODAY...

* WHAT...Up to one half foot of inundation above ground level 
  expected in vulnerable areas near the waterfront and shoreline.

* WHERE...New York (Manhattan) County.

* WHEN...Between 10 AM and 12 PM EDT today around the times 
  of high tide.

* IMPACTS...Brief minor flooding of the more vulnerable 
  locations near the waterfront and shoreline.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive through flooded roadways.

&&


$$

NYZ073-176-092000-
/O.CON.KOKX.CF.S.0028.211009T1700Z-211009T2000Z/
Bronx-Northern Queens-
400 AM EDT Sat Oct 9 2021

...COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Up to one half foot of inundation above ground level 
  expected in vulnerable areas near the waterfront and shoreline.

* WHERE...Bronx and Northern Queens Counties.

* WHEN...Between 1 PM and 4 PM EDT today around the times of 
  high tide.

* IMPACTS...Brief minor flooding of the more vulnerable 
  locations near the waterfront and shoreline.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive through flooded roadways.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
https://weather.gov/nyc

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
146 PM EDT Fri Oct 8 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure weakens today and will be followed by a back door
cold front passage tonight. A reinforcing high builds over
northern New England on Saturday and then just offshore on
Sunday as low pressure passes well south and east. High pressure
for the beginning of the week will yield to a weak frontal
passage on Wednesday. High pressure then builds in again through
the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Slight adjustments were made to dewpoints, temperatures and
cloud coverage to better match observed trends.

High pressure weakens over the region today while a strong
upper level ridge slowly slides to the east. There is some
uncertainty in how much cloud cover there will be today,
especially across the western half of the region. There will be
some increase in middle and high level moisture, but the main
question is whether or not there will be stratocu developing in
the afternoon. It appears the better chance of mostly sunny
skies will be across central and eastern Long Island and
Connecticut with partly to mostly cloudy skies further west,
especially in the afternoon. Dry conditions are expected with
high temperatures above normal in the lower to middle 70s.

A back door cold front moves across the region tonight as a
reinforcing high pressure builds southward towards New England.
Easterly flow will increase as the high builds south and the
front moves across the area. This should bring an increase in
low cloud cover into early Saturday morning. Models have been
hinting at some light qpf behind the front, but based on
forecast sounding analysis the middle levels are quite dry. The
low level moisture is shallow and becoming trapped beneath a
subsidence inversion below 5 kft. Isolated sprinkles cannot be
ruled out across eastern Long Island and southeastern
Connecticut before day break, but no measurable precip is
forecast. Lows will be in the 50s for most locations except the
NYC metro where lower 60s are forecast. Fog is not expected due
to increasing winds and low clouds through the night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
The upper ridge axis will remain along the New England coast
on Saturday as surface high pressure continues to build
southwestward over the area. Low level moisture will continue
to become trapped beneath a strong subsidence inversion around
5 kft leading to mostly cloudy skies. Isolated sprinkles cannot
be ruled out, especially near the coast, but no measurable rain
is expected given the shallow nature of the moisture. The
pressure gradient between the building high to our northeast and
low pressure near the Carolina coast will bring wind gusts
20-30 mph, strongest near the coast. High temperatures should
end up close to normal for this time of year in the 60s.

The upper ridge weakens Saturday night into Sunday as a northern
stream shortwave moves across the Great Lakes and then towards
southeast Canada. Low pressure will meander off the Carolina
coast along with a southern stream upper level low/trough
Saturday night. The models have continued to come into better
agreement that the low pressure will remain well to our south
and east into Sunday. Some of the 00z guidance has even started
to signal that the low weakens on Sunday as it slowly moves east
away from the Carolina coast. The passage of the northern
stream shortwave and upper trough axis looks to occur sometime
on Sunday afternoon. Cannot completely rule out a few showers
during the day Sunday. Have capped PoPs off at chance PoPs given
some potential for lift from the upper trough. However, it may
be difficult to precipitate through in-situ surface ridging from
the large high pressure nearby. It would not be surprising if
PoPs are lowered in subsequent forecasts with just cloudy
conditions through the day. Heights look to begin rising Sunday
night as ridging tries to reestablish itself aloft. Cloudy
conditions will likely remain in place Sunday night with limited
probabilities of any showers.

Temperatures on Sunday should be slightly above normal in the
upper 60s to near 70 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Upper lvl ridging will persist thru the week, keeping the area
mainly dry. There could be some residual shwrs on Mon if the
offshore low over the weekend is close enough, otherwise a few shwrs
could be possible with a weak front Wed. Confidence is low however
with a lack of instability along with subsidence. Temps abv normal
thru the period with mainly 70s for highs. Approaching 80 in the
swrn hot spots on Wed ahead of the front.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure remains this afternoon. A weak backdoor cold
front passes through the terminals from northeast around 01Z
to south and west around 05Z. High pressure then remains
centered over the Canadian Maritimes into Saturday.

VFR into early this evening. Ceilings lower to MVFR with the
backdoor cold front passage, then MVFR remains into Saturday.
There is a chance of drizzle late tonight into Saturday
morning, with scattered showers also possible Saturday morning.

Wind E to NE less than 10 kt, expect southerly along the coast.
East winds increase to around 10 kt tonight with a cold front
passage, and up to 15 kt, with gusts up to 20 kt Saturday
morning.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled amendments into early this evening. Amendments
likely after 00Z Saturday for the timing of the development of
MVFR.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.Saturday afternoon...MVFR with patchy drizzle during the day.
Winds east 12-15 kt gusting up to 20 kt along the coast. Chance
of showers at night.
.Sunday-Monday...MVFR to IFR with a chance of showers. Possibly
becoming VFR late in the day Monday.
.Tuesday...VFR with a chance of MVFR and showers.
.Wednesday...VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Sub-SCA conditions will continue on the waters through tonight.
Increasing easterly flow will bring SCA conditions to the ocean
waters on Saturday. Winds will gust 25-30 kt and seas build to 5
to 7 ft. These conditions are likely to continue into Saturday
night. Winds may be weaker on Sunday, but elevated ocean seas
look to remain through Sunday night. Have issued a SCA on the
ocean waters starting 6 am Saturday and continuing through 6 am
Sunday. There could be occasional gusts to 25 kt on the non
ocean waters on Saturday and Saturday night, but have held off
on a SCA for now given that confidence is not as high on the
timing and duration.

A sca will be needed on the ocean Mon and perhaps Tue for seas.
Elsewhere, winds and seas expected to be blw sca criteria. All
waters look to be blw sca lvls Wed and Thu.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts expected through next week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
High astronomical tides due to a recent new moon as well as a
relatively strong easterly flow may bring areas of minor
coastal flooding this weekend. The chance appears greatest
across the south shore back bay locations as well as the Western
Long Island Sound. The high tides during the late morning and
early afternoon each day look most vulnerable.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Saturday to 6 AM EDT Sunday for
     ANZ350-353-355.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JMC/DS
NEAR TERM...JM/DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JMC/JM/DS
HYDROLOGY...JMC/DS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service New York NY
350 AM EDT Fri Oct 8 2021

ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345-350-353-355-CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-
103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-090800-
Long Island Sound East of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY to the
Mouth of the Connecticut River-
Long Island Sound East of the Mouth of the Connecticut River-
Long Island Sound West of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY-
New York Harbor-Peconic and Gardiners Bays-
South Shore Bays from Jones Inlet through Shinnecock Bay-
Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY out 20 nm-
Fire Island Inlet NY to Moriches Inlet NY out 20 nm-
Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 nm-Northern Fairfield-
Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-Northern New London-
Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-Southern Middlesex-
Southern New London-Western Passaic-Eastern Passaic-Hudson-
Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-
Western Union-Eastern Union-Orange-Putnam-Rockland-
Northern Westchester-Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-
Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwest Suffolk-
Northeast Suffolk-Southwest Suffolk-Southeast Suffolk-
Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau-
350 AM EDT Fri Oct 8 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters,
southern Connecticut, northeast New Jersey and southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time that would meet NWS
warning criteria.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.