Coastal Flood Statement 26, NWS New York, NY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
457 PM EDT Thu Sep 9 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak low pressure will pass to the east tonight, followed by high
pressure building from the west overnight through Friday night.
The high pressure will pass to the east this weekend. Another
frontal system will approach Sunday night, passing through on
Monday night. A warm front will approach and lift north from
late Tuesday into Tuesday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Light showers continue over a good deal of the area as a weak
wave of low pressure passes to the SE. Back edge of this rain is
lifting NNE along the Jersey shore, should bypass NYC metro
after 6-7 PM, then gradually shift east across S CT and Long
Island through the night, with drying NW flow and gradual
clearing in its wake. Low temps are close to a MOS blend, with
55-60 inland/Long Island pine barrens, and 60-65 elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A drying NW flow will continue as high pressure gradually
builds toward the area. It will become breezy especially in the
afternoon, with gusts 25-30 mph in/around NYC, and 20-25 mph
most elsewhere. High temps will be in the 70s, just a couple of
degrees below the seasonal average.

With mostly clear skies and diminishing winds Fri night, a
cooler night is shaping up, with lows 45-50 well inland, in the
50s most elsewhere, and near 60 in NYC.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The high will pass through and then to the east on Saturday as
the flow aloft becomes somewhat zonal. There may be a weak fropa
Saturday into Sunday, but it looks to move through dry, with
little support in the lower levels.

A cold front approaches from the north and west on Sunday. The
front then remains in the vicinity through Monday night, then
lifts north as a warm front on Tuesday into Tuesday night. The
upper level flow will be more zonal through this time period,
allowing for any developed lows to pass to the north. There
continues to be little moisture associated with this front.
However, with the front in the vicinity, there may be a passing
shower or thunderstorm at times Monday into Monday night.

With the frontal boundary moving back north as a warm front
Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night, at least a slight chance
of showers and thunderstorms are possible, with low end chance
for areas north and west of New York City. Models show more in
the way of instability Tuesday night, as conditions become more
humid and relatively warmer air moves back into the region.
Temperatures may end up rising overnight, instead of falling
slowly. With more in the way of instability Tuesday night, there
is at least a slight chance for thunder as well.

Better chances for precipitation comes toward the end of the
week as the associated cold front approaches. There is a great
deal of timing difference between models this far out.

With the lack of any significant ridging or troughing during
this period, temperatures will generally be within a few
degrees of normal.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A cold front will continue to very slowly move eastward this evening
and into tonight. High pressure begins to build to the west on
Friday.

Conditions continue to vary between VFR to IFR,  however more
widespread VFR/MVFR conditions are starting to be observed across
NYC and points west. Conditions will continue to slowly improve as
we get through the evening. There is still some uncertainty with the
exact timing and changing flight categories.

The biggest change with the 20z TAF amendments was to remove any
mention of thunder.

Light southerly winds to light and variable gradually shift to the
west and northwest this evening as a cold front moves east.
Wind speeds generally remain 5-6kt or less til about 08-10z,
then winds increase to 10-16kt with gusts into the mid 20kt
range for Friday.

 ...Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments through evening will be possible due to changing flight
categories.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.Friday...VFR. NW winds gusts 20-25 kt.
.Saturday and Sunday...VFR.
.Monday and Tuesday...Mainly VFR with a slight chance for shwrs
and tstms.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
SCA extended onto daytime Sat, mainly for increasing long
period swells from Hurricane Larry. Also issued SCA for NY
Harbor for Fri afternoon, with NW flow gusting to 25 kt there
and also over the nearby ocean waters. A few gusts up to 25 may
also be possible on the ern ocean waters Fri evening.

With an increasing S-SW flow around offshore high pressure, seas
will build once again to SCA levels late Saturday into Sunday,
coming down below 5 ft late Sunday into Monday morning.
However, 25-kt wind gusts are possible on the ocean Sunday into
Sunday night.

Sub SCA conditions are then expected from Monday through the
middle of next week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Additional rainfall from mid afternoon into tonight could be as
high as 1/2 inch across far ern Long Island as one last rain
band of light to moderate rain moves across. No hydrologic
issues expected.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A high rip current risk continues at the ocean beaches through
Friday, and may be needed on Saturday due to long period swells
from distant Hurricane Larry. Additionally, the surf height will
be 7 to 8 ft from tonight through Friday night. Therefore, a
High Surf Advisory was issued through Friday night. The surf
height is forecast to fall below 7 ft late Friday night into
Saturday morning.

These swells will also raise water levels as a whole, and water
levels on the back bays of southern Nassau (also possibly
Jamaica Bay) may approach minor flood thresholds with the high
tide cycles through Friday. Water levels may also approach minor
flood thresholds on the western Sound on Friday.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday evening for NYZ075-080-
     081-178-179.
     High Surf Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for NYZ075-080-081-
     178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon to 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ338.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BG/JP
NEAR TERM...BG
SHORT TERM...BG
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...BG/JP
HYDROLOGY...BG/JP
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BG/JP

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service New York NY
444 PM EDT Thu Sep 9 2021

NYZ075-080-081-178-179-102045-
Kings (Brooklyn)-Southwest Suffolk-Southeast Suffolk-Southern Queens-
Southern Nassau-
444 PM EDT Thu Sep 9 2021

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY...
...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Rip Current Risk.
   High Surf Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Rip Current Risk.
   High Surf Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345-350-353-355-CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-
103>108-NYZ067>074-078-079-176-177-102045-
Long Island Sound East of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY to the
Mouth of the Connecticut River-
Long Island Sound East of the Mouth of the Connecticut River-
Long Island Sound West of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY-
New York Harbor-Peconic and Gardiners Bays-
South Shore Bays from Jones Inlet through Shinnecock Bay-
Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY out 20 nm-
Fire Island Inlet NY to Moriches Inlet NY out 20 nm-
Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 nm-Northern Fairfield-
Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-Northern New London-
Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-Southern Middlesex-
Southern New London-Western Passaic-Eastern Passaic-Hudson-
Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-
Western Union-Eastern Union-Orange-Putnam-Rockland-
Northern Westchester-Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-
Richmond (Staten Island)-Northwest Suffolk-Northeast Suffolk-
Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-
444 PM EDT Thu Sep 9 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters,
southern Connecticut, northeast New Jersey and southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time that would meet NWS
warning criteria.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.