Severe Thunderstorm Warning 6, NWS Omaha, NE

444 
WWUS53 KOAX 061244
SVSOAX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley Nebraska
744 AM CDT Tue Apr 6 2021

NEC109-151-159-061253-
/O.EXP.KOAX.SV.W.0006.000000T0000Z-210406T1245Z/
Lancaster NE-Seward NE-Saline NE-
744 AM CDT Tue Apr 6 2021

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WEST CENTRAL LANCASTER...
SOUTHEASTERN SEWARD AND NORTHEASTERN SALINE COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT
745 AM CDT...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.  However gusty
winds are still possible with this thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 4059 9703 4067 9715 4090 9704 4078 9677
TIME...MOT...LOC 1243Z 215DEG 26KT 4079 9693 

$$

KG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
647 AM CDT Tue Apr 6 2021

...Updated Aviation Forecast Discussion...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 350 AM CDT Tue Apr 6 2021

There are numerous forecast concerns today into Wednesday, which
include the chance for severe storms later this afternoon through
the evening, winds and temperatures the next few days.

Highs yesterday across the area reached into the 80s and temps
have remained mild overnight.

Upper air charts from last evening had the following features of
interest. At 300 mb there was a jet max of around 95 knots
punching east from central CA and southern NV. At 500 mb, there
was a closed low over southern ID, with 12 hour height falls in
excess of 100 meters over northeast NV and northwest UT. Thermal
ridge at 700 mb was in place from Mexico northward across NM and
CO. At 850 mb, Moisture was streaming north from TX across KS,
western MO, eastern NE and much of IA. Surface analysis early this
morning indicated a low pressure center of around 990 mb over
northeast CO with a nearly stationary front extending northeast
from the low across NE into southeast SD, northwest IA and then up
into southern MN. Dewpoints in our area were mostly in the lower
or mid 50s, but 30s were noted north of the front in the far
northwest corner of the forecast area (dewpoints at KYKN and KONL
were in the mid 30s).

It appears that as the surface low tracks into southwest NE today
that the front may lift a bit farther north, putting most or all
of our area in the warm sector. Have boosted highs parts of the
area a bit, with 70s expected most spots. A few locations could
touch 80 but in far northwest Knox county it is possible that
highs may only hit the upper 60s. Regional radar at 335 am showed
some showers and isolated thunderstorms taking shape with an area
of lift from parts of south central NE into central KS. Those
should move across parts of our area this morning. Then there may
be a break before more showers and storms develop this afternoon.
It appears coverage may be highest late this afternoon and this
evening, and that seems to be when severe storm chances will be
highest. Strong winds and hail should be the main hazards with a
small chance that a tornado could develop near or just north of
the KS border in southeast NE. Recent runs of the HRRR seem to
have a decent handle on this. It will become windy for much of the
area today, and winds should be the strongest in parts of
southeast NE. We issued a wind advisory there from Noon to 7 pm.
Speeds could reach 25 to 30 mph with gusts above 40 mph. Again,
storm coverage should be highest this evening, but chances will
continue overnight.

Models continue to show that as the surface low moves east, the
front will push southward and our winds will start to turn to the
north. This will progress eastward across the forecast area
tonight and Wednesday. This will cause our western zones to be the
coolest and eastern areas the warmest for both tonight and
Wednesday. Forcing for precipitation will continue into Thursday
night with some soaking rains expected. Amounts could reach over
an inch at many locations in the central and eastern parts of the
forecast area.

Another weak system could bring some showers Friday, but models
are not in very good agreement with that. There will also be some
spotty chances for showers Sunday into Tuesday, but amounts should
be light.

Highs Wednesday will range from 50s in our western zones to 60s
east. Highs Thursday and Friday will be in the 50s or 60s, then in
the 60s Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 633 AM CDT Tue Apr 6 2021

Spotty showers and a few storms will move through the region this
morning as southerly wind speeds increase through the day.
Wind speeds will be sustained at 15 to 25 kts with gusts up to
35 kts. There will likely be a lull in precipitation in the early
afternoon before a second round of more robust convection
develops just before 00Z. Some storms could become strong to
severe with gusty winds and large hail. VFR conditions will drop
to MVFR as storms move through this evening, eventually falling
to IFR around 12Z Wednesday morning.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Wind Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for
     NEZ078-088>093.

IA...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...Miller
AVIATION...KG

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
401 AM CDT Tue Apr 6 2021

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-062315-
Monona-Harrison-Shelby-Pottawattamie-Mills-Montgomery-Fremont-
Page-Knox-Cedar-Thurston-Antelope-Pierce-Wayne-Boone-Madison-
Stanton-Cuming-Burt-Platte-Colfax-Dodge-Washington-Butler-
Saunders-Douglas-Sarpy-Seward-Lancaster-Cass-Otoe-Saline-
Jefferson-Gage-Johnson-Nemaha-Pawnee-Richardson-
401 AM CDT Tue Apr 6 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest
Iowa...west central Iowa...east central Nebraska...northeast
Nebraska and southeast Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A few scattered thunderstorms could over parts of the area this
morning or early this afternoon, but the chance of severe weather
with these seems fairly low.

There is a chance for severe storms later this afternoon and
through the evening. At this time, it appears that 6 pm to
midnight is the window where severe storm chances are highest.
Damaging winds and hail appear to be the main hazards, but there
is a small chance that a tornado could develop in portions of
southeast Nebraska. The chance of severe storms should be
decreasing after midnight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

There will continue to be a chance for thunderstorms for much of
the area on Wednesday. There is a marginal risk for severe storms,
mainly across southwest Iowa and areas of far eastern Nebraska
near the Missouri River. Hail and strong winds would be the main
hazards.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation could be needed in parts of southeast Nebraska
by late this afternoon or this evening.