Severe Thunderstorm Warning 27, NWS Omaha, NE

937 
WWUS53 KOAX 111038
SVSOAX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley Nebraska
538 AM CDT Fri Jun 11 2021

NEC107-111100-
/O.CON.KOAX.SV.W.0027.000000T0000Z-210611T1100Z/
Knox NE-
538 AM CDT Fri Jun 11 2021

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 AM CDT
FOR CENTRAL KNOX COUNTY...

At 538 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Niobrara, or 20
miles southwest of Tyndall, moving southeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
  Verdigre.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4284 9817 4284 9815 4277 9806 4276 9804
      4276 9801 4277 9795 4279 9791 4286 9787
      4271 9760 4248 9809 4286 9825 4287 9824
TIME...MOT...LOC 1038Z 328DEG 34KT 4274 9807 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Mead

535 
WWUS53 KOAX 111058
SVSOAX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley Nebraska
558 AM CDT Fri Jun 11 2021

NEC107-111107-
/O.EXP.KOAX.SV.W.0027.000000T0000Z-210611T1100Z/
Knox NE-
558 AM CDT Fri Jun 11 2021

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL KNOX COUNTY WILL
EXPIRE AT 600 AM CDT...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 AM CDT for
northeastern Nebraska.

Remember, a Severe Thunderstorm Warning still remains in effect for 
much of Knox county until 630 AM.

LAT...LON 4284 9817 4284 9815 4277 9806 4276 9804
      4276 9801 4277 9795 4279 9791 4286 9787
      4271 9760 4248 9809 4286 9825 4287 9824
TIME...MOT...LOC 1057Z 326DEG 35KT 4259 9793 

$$

Mead

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
325 AM CDT Fri Jun 11 2021

...Updated Forecast Discussion...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 325 AM CDT Fri Jun 11 2021

Main concern in the forecast period will be storms associated
with a cold front moving through the area this morning into early
afternoon. As of 3 AM, a line of storms was well underway
stretching from North Dakota down to western Nebraska. Latest
observations/SPC mesoanalysis show plenty of moisture and
instability to work with, as dewpoints were in the upper 60s to
lower 70s across the region, with MLCAPE values near 3000 J/kg
ahead of the line. Still, questions remain on strength of the
storms when they move into the forecast area by the early morning
hours, especially regarding how much wind can reach the surface
given nocturnal cooling. In addition, a general lack of shear
would suggest the storms become a little more disorganized/outflow
dominant, which is suggested by most CAMs at some point. That
said, storms right along the NE/SD border have been trucking along
just fine, producing severe wind gusts across that area.

The general picture painted by the CAMs through the morning would
be a portion of the line continues eastward across northeast
Nebraska before it gusts out and weakens a bit as those remnants
move into Iowa. Farther south, there's good agreement that that
portion of the line holds together and could strengthen as it
dives southeast into southeast Nebraska and far southwest Iowa
late this morning/early this afternoon, owing to slightly later
timing and therefore, a few hours of daytime heating. Should this
pan out, could almost see two swaths of severe weather potential
(mainly damaging winds) in the aforementioned areas. Timing will
certainly be key for the southeast Nebraska/southwest Iowa area,
with any further slowing in storm arrival time likely meaning an
increasing severe weather threat.

Storms should exit the area by mid afternoon, with the cold front
providing at least a little temporary, slight relief from the
persistent heat of the past several days. Expect highs to range
from the lower 80s in northeast Nebraska to the upper 80s as you
move south of Interstate 80.

Beyond today, we'll be back into another extended warm and
generally dry period as upper level ridging builds back in over
much of the CONUS. High temperatures look to climb back into the
90s for pretty much the entire area by Sunday and lasting through
next week. There are some hints that some spots could even make a
run at 100 a day or two during the week.

As far as rain chances go, unfortunately not much to talk about
in the longer term, though there appears to maybe be some hope
Monday night into Tuesday. The 11.00Z GFS and many GEFS members
suggest a weak shortwave slides southeast through the area and
brings at least some light rain to somewhere in the region. Still
quite a bit of spread on exact location, however. In addition,
other guidance (including the 11.00Z ECMWF) is completely dry for
this period. Otherwise, there are hints at additional weak
shortwaves rippling through the larger scale northwesterly flow,
but not much agreement on timing, nor if they'll produce rain.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1231 AM CDT Fri Jun 11 2021

Main aviation concern remains timing and strength of a line of
storms early Friday morning. Guidance has trended a bit slower,
though with potential for outflow winds to arrive ahead of storms,
didn't want to make any large changes to timing. Winds will
become gusty out of the northwest as storms move through, though
confidence is low on strength. Would expect pockets of 40 kts or
greater, though storms are expected to be weakening a bit as they
move through. Also, we should be able to monitor trends of the
ongoing storms as they approach the area, so should have a good
idea of what kind of winds to expect ahead of time. Showers and
storms could linger through late morning, with occasional MVFR
conditions or perhaps even IFR conditions with the strongest
storms. Once storms exit, expect VFR conditions with clouds
gradually scattering out through the afternoon and northwest winds
of 10 to 15 kts subsiding a bit by evening.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...CA

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
407 AM CDT Fri Jun 11 2021

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-112315-
Monona-Harrison-Shelby-Pottawattamie-Mills-Montgomery-Fremont-
Page-Knox-Cedar-Thurston-Antelope-Pierce-Wayne-Boone-Madison-
Stanton-Cuming-Burt-Platte-Colfax-Dodge-Washington-Butler-
Saunders-Douglas-Sarpy-Seward-Lancaster-Cass-Otoe-Saline-
Jefferson-Gage-Johnson-Nemaha-Pawnee-Richardson-
407 AM CDT Fri Jun 11 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest
Iowa...west central Iowa...east central Nebraska...northeast
Nebraska and southeast Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A line of thunderstorms will move across the area this morning
into early this afternoon. The main threat will be damaging
winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated, but any reports of severe
weather are appreciated.