Freeze Warning 2, NWS Omaha, NE

025 
WWUS73 KOAX 150135
NPWOAX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
835 PM CDT Wed Apr 14 2021

IAZ069-079-080-090-091-NEZ050>053-065>068-078-088>093-151300-
/O.CON.KOAX.FZ.W.0002.210415T0600Z-210415T1300Z/
Pottawattamie-Mills-Montgomery-Fremont-Page-Butler-Saunders-
Douglas-Sarpy-Seward-Lancaster-Cass-Otoe-Saline-Jefferson-Gage-
Johnson-Nemaha-Pawnee-Richardson-
Including the cities of Council Bluffs, Glenwood, Red Oak, 
Sidney, Hamburg, Tabor, Farragut, Clarinda, Shenandoah, 
David City, Wahoo, Ashland, Yutan, Omaha, Bellevue, Papillion, 
La Vista, Seward, Milford, Lincoln, Plattsmouth, Nebraska City, 
Crete, Wilber, Fairbury, Beatrice, Tecumseh, Sterling, Auburn, 
Pawnee City, Table Rock, and Falls City
835 PM CDT Wed Apr 14 2021

...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Sub-freezing temperatures as low as 29 expected.

* WHERE...Portions of east central and southeast Nebraska and 
  southwest Iowa.

* WHEN...From 1 AM to 8 AM CDT Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions will kill crops, other 
  sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor 
  plumbing.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold. To prevent
freezing and possible bursting of outdoor water pipes they should
be wrapped, drained, or allowed to drip slowly. Those that have
in-ground sprinkler systems should drain them and cover above-
ground pipes to protect them from freezing.

&&

$$

467 
WWUS73 KOAX 151251
NPWOAX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
751 AM CDT Thu Apr 15 2021

IAZ069-079-080-090-091-NEZ050>053-065>068-078-088>093-151400-
/O.EXP.KOAX.FZ.W.0002.000000T0000Z-210415T1300Z/
Pottawattamie-Mills-Montgomery-Fremont-Page-Butler-Saunders-
Douglas-Sarpy-Seward-Lancaster-Cass-Otoe-Saline-Jefferson-Gage-
Johnson-Nemaha-Pawnee-Richardson-
Including the cities of Council Bluffs, Glenwood, Red Oak, 
Sidney, Hamburg, Tabor, Farragut, Clarinda, Shenandoah, 
David City, Wahoo, Ashland, Yutan, Omaha, Bellevue, Papillion, 
La Vista, Seward, Milford, Lincoln, Plattsmouth, Nebraska City, 
Crete, Wilber, Fairbury, Beatrice, Tecumseh, Sterling, Auburn, 
Pawnee City, Table Rock, and Falls City
751 AM CDT Thu Apr 15 2021

...FREEZE WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING...

Temperatures are expected to climb above freezing shortly this 
morning and eliminate any additional frost formation.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1242 PM CDT Wed Apr 14 2021

...Updated Aviation Forecast Discussion...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 349 AM CDT Wed Apr 14 2021

Interesting flow pattern across the CONUS early this morning,
with water vapor imagery showing a cutoff low spinning across
eastern Minnesota into northern Wisconsin and another over
northwest Nevada. In between, an shortwave ridge axis was analyzed
just east of the Rockies, leaving the forecast area under zonal
to northwest flow aloft. At the surface, a bit of a pressure
gradient still remained in place across the area, leading to
north/northwesterly winds nearing 10 mph at times. Said winds,
combined with some earlier mid to high level clouds across
southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa have likely kept
temperatures from really tanking, but still seeing widespread
readings in the lower to mid 30s as of 3 AM, with some spots in
northeast Nebraska in the upper 20s.

Said near-freezing temperatures remain the main forecast concern
heading into Thursday morning given little change in the pattern
before then. Doing a spot check of the latest GEFS/EPS guidance
shows temperatures should bottom out a degree or 2 on either side
of that 32 degree mark in areas with more susceptible vegetation
(generally near and south of I-80). 14.00Z HREF guidance suggests
some lower clouds at least somewhat close to the forecast area
(though looking more likely to the west), which could impact
temperatures. Therefore, confidence is rather low on need for any
frost/freeze headlines. Would like to see where we end up this
morning since Thursday morning will be fairly similar, so will
allow the day shift to make the final decision on any headlines.

The aforementioned low over the western CONUS will be making its
way eastward through the day Thursday, with associated precip
reaching our western areas sometime Thursday night into Friday
morning. Still looking like the strongest forcing/PV advection
slides just south of our forecast area, meaning southwest NE into
KS will likely see the highest precip amounts, which checks out
per GEFS QPF output. Should be warm enough for all rain, but if
some precip sneaks into our far west at the right time Friday
morning, can't completely rule out some snowflakes mixing in in
parts of northeast Nebraska, though wouldn't anticipate any
accumulation at this time. Most guidance suggests precip should
come to an end by Saturday morning, but there are a handful of
GEFS members, as well as the 14.00Z GFS, that suggest it lingers
through much of the day on Saturday, as a weak bit of shortwave
energy drops straight south out of the Dakotas.

Pretty good agreement that Sunday will be dry as we'll be on the
eastern periphery of surface high pressure off to the west. The
next precip chances come sometime Monday as guidance is in great
agreement of a pretty good surface cold front and larger scale
upper level trough axis sliding through the forecast area. This
will leave the area under northwest flow with cooler-than-average
temperatures continuing into early to middle parts of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Wed Apr 14 2021

VFR criteria expected to prevail for the TAF period. That said,
there are some lower level clouds moving through northeast
Nebraska. Clouds at those levels are expected to raise and
scatter out. A TEMPO group for MVFR ceilings was included for
KOFK. Winds across the area are from the northeast between 10 to
15 kts. There has been the occasional gust over 20 kts, but they
have been infrequent. Winds should drop to less than 10 kts after
15/01Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...Fajman

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1131 AM CDT Wed Apr 14 2021

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-150645-
Monona-Harrison-Shelby-Pottawattamie-Mills-Montgomery-Fremont-
Page-Knox-Cedar-Thurston-Antelope-Pierce-Wayne-Boone-Madison-
Stanton-Cuming-Burt-Platte-Colfax-Dodge-Washington-Butler-
Saunders-Douglas-Sarpy-Seward-Lancaster-Cass-Otoe-Saline-
Jefferson-Gage-Johnson-Nemaha-Pawnee-Richardson-
1131 AM CDT Wed Apr 14 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest
Iowa...west central Iowa...east central Nebraska...northeast
Nebraska and southeast Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Freezing temperatures are again possible tonight into Thursday
morning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.