Wind Chill Advisory 2, NWS Marquette, MI

285 
WWUS43 KMQT 070043
WSWMQT

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Marquette MI
743 PM EST Sat Feb 6 2021

MIZ002-071200-
/O.CON.KMQT.WC.W.0001.000000T0000Z-210207T1800Z/
/O.CON.KMQT.WW.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-210207T1200Z/
Ontonagon-
Including the city of Ontonagon
743 PM EST Sat Feb 6 2021

...WIND CHILL WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
SUNDAY...

* WHAT...For the Wind Chill Warning, dangerously cold wind chills
  expected. Wind chills as low as 40 below zero. For the Winter
  Weather Advisory, snow showers and low visibilities. Brief
  white-out conditions possible at times near the lakeshore and
  north of Rockland. Little to no snow expected south of Rockland.
  Additional snow accumulations of 2 to 3 inches north of
  Rockland. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Ontonagon County.

* WHEN...For the Wind Chill Warning, from 7 PM this evening to 1 
  PM EST Sunday. For the Winter Weather Advisory, until 7 AM EST 
  Sunday.

* IMPACTS...The dangerously cold wind chills could cause 
  frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 10 minutes. Plan on 
  slippery road conditions. Patchy blowing snow could 
  significantly reduce visibility.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS..The cold weather pattern will remain for 
  the next several days. More wind chill advisories and warnings 
  are likely in the days to come.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Avoid outside activities if possible. When outside, make sure you
wear appropriate clothing, a hat, and gloves.

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

&&

$$

MIZ009>011-071200-
/O.CON.KMQT.WC.W.0001.000000T0000Z-210207T1800Z/
Gogebic-Iron-Dickinson-
Including the cities of Ironwood, Iron River, and Iron Mountain
643 PM CST Sat Feb 6 2021

...WIND CHILL WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Dangerously cold wind chills expected. Wind chills as 
  low as 40 below zero.

* WHERE...Gogebic, Iron and Dickinson Counties.

* WHEN...Until noon CST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...The dangerously cold wind chills could cause 
  frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 10 minutes.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The cold weather pattern will remain for 
  the next several days. More wind chill advisories and warnings 
  are likely in the days to come.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Avoid outside activities if possible. When outside, make sure you
wear appropriate clothing, a hat, and gloves.

&&

$$

MIZ004-005-084-071200-
/O.CON.KMQT.WC.W.0001.000000T0000Z-210207T1800Z/
Baraga-Marquette-Southern Houghton-
Including the cities of L'Anse, Gwinn, Marquette, Kenton, 
and Sidnaw
743 PM EST Sat Feb 6 2021

...WIND CHILL WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Dangerously cold wind chills expected. Wind chills as 
  low as 35 to 40 below zero.

* WHERE...Baraga, Marquette and Southern Houghton Counties.

* WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...The dangerously cold wind chills could cause 
  frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 10 minutes.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The cold weather pattern will remain for 
  the next several days. More wind chill advisories and warnings 
  are likely in the days to come.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Avoid outside activities if possible. When outside, make sure you
wear appropriate clothing, a hat, and gloves.

&&

$$

MIZ001-003-071200-
/O.CON.KMQT.WW.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-210207T1200Z/
Keweenaw-Northern Houghton-
Including the cities of Copper Harbor, Houghton, and Hancock
743 PM EST Sat Feb 6 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow showers and blowing snow. Whiteout
  conditions possible at times. Additional snow accumulations of 2
  to 4 inches...greatest from Painesdale to Twin Lakes. Winds 
  gusting as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Northern Houghton and Keweenaw Counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Areas of blowing 
  snow could significantly reduce visibility. The cold wind chills
  as low as 25 below zero could cause frostbite on exposed skin 
  in as little as 30 minutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. Wear appropriate clothing, 
a hat, and gloves.

&&

$$

MIZ006-012>014-085-071200-
/O.CON.KMQT.WC.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-210207T1800Z/
Alger-Menominee-Delta-Southern Schoolcraft-Northern Schoolcraft-
Including the cities of Grand Marais, Munising, Menominee, 
Escanaba, Gladstone, Manistique, and Seney
743 PM EST Sat Feb 6 2021 /643 PM CST Sat Feb 6 2021/

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON
CST/ SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Very cold wind chills expected. Wind chills as low as 30
  to 35 below zero.

* WHERE...Alger, Menominee, Delta, Southern and Northern 
  Schoolcraft Counties.

* WHEN...from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...The dangerously cold wind chills could cause 
  frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 10 minutes.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The cold weather pattern will remain for 
  the next several days. More wind chill advisories and warnings 
  are likely in the days to come.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use caution while traveling outside. Wear appropriate clothing, a
hat, and gloves.

&&

$$

Voss

636 
WWUS43 KMQT 070416
WSWMQT

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Marquette MI
1116 PM EST Sat Feb 6 2021

MIZ006-071200-
/O.CAN.KMQT.WC.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-210207T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KMQT.WW.Y.0006.210207T0700Z-210208T0000Z/
Alger-
Including the cities of Grand Marais and Munising
1116 PM EST Sat Feb 6 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 7 PM EST
SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow and blowing snow expected. Total snow 
  accumulations of 2 to locally 4 inches...greatest from Pictured 
  Rocks to Grand Marais. Little to no snow accumulation west of 
  Pictured Rocks. 
 
* WHERE...Alger County.

* WHEN...From 2 AM to 7 PM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions and near whiteout
  conditions in blowing snow mainly from Pictured Rocks to Grand
  Marais. The dangerously cold wind chills as low as 30 below zero
  could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 10
  minutes. The coldest wind chills will be from Munising westward
  late tonight into Sunday morning. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. When outside, make sure 
you wear appropriate clothing, a hat, and gloves.

&&

$$

MIZ002-071200-
/O.CON.KMQT.WC.W.0001.000000T0000Z-210207T1800Z/
/O.CON.KMQT.WW.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-210207T1200Z/
Ontonagon-
Including the city of Ontonagon
1116 PM EST Sat Feb 6 2021

...WIND CHILL WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
SUNDAY...

* WHAT...For the Wind Chill Warning, dangerously cold wind chills
  expected. Wind chills as low as 40 below zero. For the Winter
  Weather Advisory, snow showers and low visibilities. Brief
  white-out conditions possible at times near the lakeshore and 
  north of Rockland. Little to no snow expected south of Rockland.
  Additional snow accumulations of 2 to 3 inches north of 
  Rockland. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Ontonagon County.

* WHEN...For the Wind Chill Warning, through 1 PM EST Sunday. For
  the Winter Weather Advisory, until 7 AM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...The dangerously cold wind chills could cause 
  frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 10 minutes. Plan on 
  slippery road conditions. Patchy blowing snow could 
  significantly reduce visibility.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS..The cold weather pattern will remain for 
  the next several days. More wind chill advisories and warnings 
  are likely in the days to come.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Avoid outside activities if possible. When outside, make sure you
wear appropriate clothing, a hat, and gloves.

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

&&

$$

MIZ009>011-071200-
/O.CON.KMQT.WC.W.0001.000000T0000Z-210207T1800Z/
Gogebic-Iron-Dickinson-
Including the cities of Ironwood, Iron River, and Iron Mountain
1016 PM CST Sat Feb 6 2021

...WIND CHILL WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Dangerously cold wind chills expected. Wind chills as 
  low as 40 below zero.

* WHERE...Gogebic, Iron and Dickinson Counties.

* WHEN...Until noon CST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...The dangerously cold wind chills could cause 
  frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 10 minutes.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The cold weather pattern will remain for 
  the next several days. More wind chill advisories and warnings 
  are likely in the days to come.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Avoid outside activities if possible. When outside, make sure you
wear appropriate clothing, a hat, and gloves.

&&

$$

MIZ004-005-084-071200-
/O.CON.KMQT.WC.W.0001.000000T0000Z-210207T1800Z/
Baraga-Marquette-Southern Houghton-
Including the cities of L'Anse, Gwinn, Marquette, Kenton, 
and Sidnaw
1116 PM EST Sat Feb 6 2021

...WIND CHILL WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Dangerously cold wind chills expected. Wind chills as 
  low as 35 to 40 below zero.

* WHERE...Baraga, Marquette and Southern Houghton Counties.

* WHEN...Through 1 PM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...The dangerously cold wind chills could cause 
  frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 10 minutes.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The cold weather pattern will remain for 
  the next several days. More wind chill advisories and warnings 
  are likely in the days to come.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Avoid outside activities if possible. When outside, make sure you
wear appropriate clothing, a hat, and gloves.

&&

$$

MIZ007-071200-
/O.NEW.KMQT.WW.Y.0006.210207T0700Z-210208T0000Z/
Luce-
Including the city of Newberry
1116 PM EST Sat Feb 6 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 7 PM EST
SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow and blowing snow expected. Total snow
  accumulations of 2 to locally 5 inches...greatest along the Lake
  Superior shoreline. Snow accumulation of an inch or less south
  of Pine Stump Junction.  

* WHERE...Luce County.

* WHEN...From 2 AM to 7 PM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions and near whiteout
  conditions closer to the Lake Superior shoreline. The cold wind
  chills as low as 25 below zero could cause frostbite on exposed
  skin in as little as 30 minutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. When outside, make sure 
you wear appropriate clothing, a hat, and gloves.

&&

$$

MIZ001-003-071200-
/O.CON.KMQT.WW.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-210207T1200Z/
Keweenaw-Northern Houghton-
Including the cities of Copper Harbor, Houghton, and Hancock
1116 PM EST Sat Feb 6 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow showers and blowing snow. Whiteout
  conditions possible at times. Additional snow accumulations of 1
  to 3 inches...greatest from Calumet to Twin Lakes. Winds gusting
  as high as 30 mph.

* WHERE...Northern Houghton and Keweenaw Counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Areas of blowing 
  snow could significantly reduce visibility. The cold wind 
  chills as low as 25 below zero could cause frostbite on 
  exposed skin in as little as 30 minutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. Wear appropriate
clothing, a hat, and gloves.

&&

$$

MIZ012>014-085-071200-
/O.CON.KMQT.WC.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-210207T1800Z/
Menominee-Delta-Southern Schoolcraft-Northern Schoolcraft-
Including the cities of Menominee, Escanaba, Gladstone, 
Manistique, and Seney
1116 PM EST Sat Feb 6 2021 /1016 PM CST Sat Feb 6 2021/

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON
CST/ SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Very cold wind chills expected. Wind chills as low as 
  30 to 35 below zero.

* WHERE...Alger, Menominee, Delta, Southern and Northern 
  Schoolcraft Counties.

* WHEN...Through 1 PM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...The dangerously cold wind chills could cause 
  frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 10 minutes.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The cold weather pattern will remain for 
  the next several days. More wind chill advisories and warnings 
  are likely in the days to come.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use caution while traveling outside. Wear appropriate clothing, a
hat, and gloves.

&&

$$

Voss

079 
WWUS43 KMQT 071201
WSWMQT

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Marquette MI
701 AM EST Sun Feb 7 2021


MIZ002-071800-
/O.EXP.KMQT.WW.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-210207T1200Z/
/O.CON.KMQT.WC.W.0001.000000T0000Z-210207T1800Z/
Ontonagon-
Including the city of Ontonagon
701 AM EST Sun Feb 7 2021

...WIND CHILL WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Dangerously cold wind chills. Wind chills as low as 40 
  below zero.

* WHERE...Ontonagon County.

* WHEN...Until 1 PM EST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...The dangerously cold wind chills could cause 
  frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 10 minutes.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS..The cold weather pattern will remain for 
  the next several days. More wind chill advisories and warnings 
  are likely in the days to come.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Avoid outside activities if possible. When outside, make sure you
wear appropriate clothing, a hat, and gloves. 

&&

$$

MIZ001-003-071315-
/O.EXP.KMQT.WW.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-210207T1200Z/
Keweenaw-Northern Houghton-
Including the cities of Copper Harbor, Houghton, and Hancock
701 AM EST Sun Feb 7 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 7 AM EST THIS MORNING...

Blowing snow with light lake effect snowfall accumulations for 
today will occur, but the winter headline will be allowed to 
expire.

$$

MIZ009>011-071800-
/O.CON.KMQT.WC.W.0001.000000T0000Z-210207T1800Z/
Gogebic-Iron-Dickinson-
Including the cities of Ironwood, Iron River, and Iron Mountain
601 AM CST Sun Feb 7 2021

...WIND CHILL WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST TODAY...

* WHAT...Dangerously cold wind chills. Wind chills as low as 40 
  below zero.

* WHERE...Gogebic, Dickinson and Iron Counties.

* WHEN...Until noon CST today.

* IMPACTS...The dangerously cold wind chills could cause 
  frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 10 minutes.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The cold weather pattern will remain for 
  the next several days. More wind chill advisories and warnings 
  are likely in the days to come.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Avoid outside activities if possible. When outside, make sure you
wear appropriate clothing, a hat, and gloves. 

&&

$$

MIZ004-005-084-071800-
/O.CON.KMQT.WC.W.0001.000000T0000Z-210207T1800Z/
Baraga-Marquette-Southern Houghton-
Including the cities of L'Anse, Gwinn, Marquette, Kenton, 
and Sidnaw
701 AM EST Sun Feb 7 2021

...WIND CHILL WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Dangerously cold wind chills. Wind chills as low as 45 
  below zero.

* WHERE...Baraga, Marquette and Southern Houghton Counties.

* WHEN...Until 1 PM EST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...The dangerously cold wind chills could cause 
  frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 10 minutes.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The cold weather pattern will remain for 
  the next several days. More wind chill advisories and warnings 
  are likely in the days to come.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Avoid outside activities if possible. When outside, make sure you
wear appropriate clothing, a hat, and gloves. 

&&

$$

MIZ006-007-072015-
/O.CON.KMQT.WW.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-210208T0000Z/
Alger-Luce-
Including the cities of Grand Marais, Munising, and Newberry
701 AM EST Sun Feb 7 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations of up to 4 inches.

* WHERE...Alger and Luce Counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Patchy blowing 
  snow could significantly reduce visibility. The dangerously 
  cold wind chills as low as 35 below zero could cause frostbite 
  on exposed skin in as little as 10 minutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

&&

$$

MIZ012>014-085-071800-
/O.CON.KMQT.WC.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-210207T1800Z/
Menominee-Delta-Southern Schoolcraft-Northern Schoolcraft-
Including the cities of Menominee, Escanaba, Gladstone, 
Manistique, and Seney
701 AM EST Sun Feb 7 2021 /601 AM CST Sun Feb 7 2021/

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON
CST/ THIS AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Very cold wind chills. Wind chills as low as 35 below 
  zero.

* WHERE...Delta, Menominee, Southern Schoolcraft and Northern 
  Schoolcraft Counties.

* WHEN...Until 1 PM EST /noon CST/ this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...The dangerously cold wind chills could cause 
  frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 10 minutes.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The cold weather pattern will remain for 
  the next several days. More wind chill advisories and warnings 
  are likely in the days to come.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use caution while traveling outside. Wear appropriate clothing, a
hat, and gloves. 

&&

$$

BW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
416 PM EST Sat Feb 6 2021

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 412 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2021

...Blowing Snow and Moderate Snowfall Continues This Afternoon to
Saturday...
...Very Cold Wind-Chills in the Interior West Half Tonight...

Satellite imagery shows that skies are mostly sunny for most of the
U.P. this afternoon, save for the west lake-effect snow belts. The
lake-effect snow is lifting to the north, moving out of the Ironwood
area as well as most of the east as the winds shift further west.
Temps this afternoon don't look to get above the single digits, save
for the east, as CAA from an arctic airmass continues to move over
us. Breezy conditions have wind chills in the negative 20s in the
far west this afternoon.

As a shortwave moves through the U.P. tonight, expect an enhancement
in the lake-effect snow showers in the west lake-effect snow belts
and very cold wind chills in almost all of the U.P., save the
Keweenaw Peninsula and far east. As the shortwave moves out Sunday,
another shortwave from Saskatchewan appears to head toward us.

Blowing snow and moderate snowfall looks to again make travel
hazardous along the Keweenaw and Porkies this evening, as white-out
conditions will be possible at times. Also, roads may remain
slippery, as temperatures near and below zero will prevent salt from
working well. The blowing snow and moderate snowfall would also re-
cover roads quickly. These hazards are also possible in the far
northeast of the U.P. tonight and Sunday as well.

The rest of the U.P., save Luce county, should see very low wind
chills tonight and early tomorrow morning; wind chills in the
interior west are predicted to get down to around -40. Therefore,
travel could be very dangerous tonight if you become stranded, as
unprotected skin could suffer frostbite in as quick as 10 minutes at
spots. Also, if you have any outdoor pets, be sure to bring them
inside tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 416 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2021

Not much change to the going forecast for the next several days as
the cold pattern still looks here to stay through at least the
middle of next week, and likely even into next weekend. Thus wind
chills and localized heavy lake effect snow will continue to be the
primary forecast concerns for the next several days.

850 mb temps remaining around -25 C will continue to support lake
effect snow in the west wind snow belts. With little to no dendritic
growth, flakes will continue to be small leading to sharply reduced
visibility in the heavier LES bands despite actual accumulations
being on the low end. The primary forecast challenge for the next
couple of days will be pinpointing where the southernmost, and thus
strongest, LES band will set up. Subtle changes in the background
flow will cause it to meander at times. However, based on where the
NAM, GFS, and RDPS all show the 1000-850 mb convergence, the
steadiest snow is most likely from about Ontonagon to Twin Lakes to
Mohawk Sunday night into Monday morning. By Monday afternoon the
band will lift north into Keweenaw County and perhaps even be
offshore entirely for a few hours. Therefore Houghton may see a
break in the snow Monday afternoon before the band sags back south
Monday evening and then remains more or less in place across the
Keweenaw through Wednesday. This band may also hug the shoreline
east of Pictured Rocks Sunday night and again Monday night through
Wednesday with a break during the day Monday similar to in Houghton.

High and low temps will be pretty consistent each day Monday morning
through Wednesday night. Highs each day are expected to be in the
single digits either side of 0. Lows will fall to around -15 to -20
interior each night and around -5 to -10 elsewhere likely leading to
additional wind chill advisories. Despite the cold temps, with
surface high pressure settling into the Upper Midwest the pressure
gradient should be weak enough that warning criteria wind chills
will be hard to come by. Ultimately this continues to look like the
type of cold air outbreak we see once every year or two - rather
than record cold. Nonetheless, those planning to be outside for any
more than a couple minutes should continue to take precautions to
protect themselves from frostbite.

By Thursday, the GEFS mean shows the development of positive height
anomalies in an arc across the North Pole from northern Eurasia to
the Northwest Territories as height anomalies over Greenland become
neutral or even slightly negative. This pattern is reflected in GEFS
individual members' progs of the NAO rising from negative to
positive while the AO bottoms out at around -6. This is a classic
pattern for continued central U.S. cold. A dProg/dt analysis of the
last 8 runs of the GEFS mean shows rather decent run-to-run
consistency in the ensemble mean over the past 2 days. Furthermore,
t he 00z EC Ens mostly support this second shot of cold air for the
end of next week as well. Although there is considerable spread in
the members' 850 mb temps, one can identify a signal within the
noise showing somewhat of a consensus of members whose 850 mb temps
overhead drop to around -30 C by Friday night. Another way of
looking at this is that of all of the GEFS, EPS, and CMC-GEPS
members, on each of days 6 and 7 (next Friday and Saturday) there is
a distinct cluster of 25% of the members with a much more zonal (not
as cold) pattern, while the other 75% of members do maintain a
significant negative height anomaly over the north-central U.S. but
with differences in placement of the core of the coldest air. While
the highest confidence in continued very cold air for the end of the
week is over the Northern Plains, there is enough of a signal in the
models to continue messaging bitter cold for the end of the week.
NBM deterministic highs are near the 75th percentile of the NBM
distribution Thursday through Saturday, so this is likely another
case of the bias correction not being able to handle such a cold
pattern. Therefore, adjusted highs Thursday to around the NBM median
and to below the median Friday and Saturday. This translates to
highs mostly in the single digits each day with some subzero highs
possible over the west on Friday.

A short wave rotating around the PV lobe and lifting northeastward
across the Upper Great Lakes on Friday could induce surface
cyclogenesis somewhere over the Great Lakes, as in the 12z GFS and
EC. Even if the cyclone remains too far south to spread synoptic
precip all the way north to the U.P., the extreme lake-based
instability could allow a sharp inverted trough to form on the
northern flank of the low. If that happened, lake effect snow would
become intense for the end of the week, but confidence in where the
intense snow band sets up would be very low since these inverted
troughs are difficult to figure out a day or two in advance let
alone 6 to 7 days.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2021

Conditions at KIWD have improved to MVFR as the lake-effect snow
moves north. KIWD should become VFR by late this afternoon as the
blowing snow subsides due to wind speeds slowing down; the lake-
effect snow should remain north of KIWD for the rest of the TAF
period. KCMX looks to remain at or below airport minimums for the
rest of the TAF period, as lake-effect snow and blowing snow
continues. KSAW looks to remain VFR for the TAF period, as the
terminal should only get, at most, occasional cloud cover at VFR
cigs.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 412 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2021

West to northwest gales should continue this afternoon and slowly
subside tonight, with the gale warnings set to expire at 11pm. After
the gales, expect west to northwest wind gusts between 20 and 30
knots and heavy freezing spray from Sunday to Wednesday. Winds will
become 20 knots or less Wednesday night, and the heavy freezing
spray looks to end Thursday morning.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
  Wind Chill Warning until 1 PM EST Sunday for MIZ002-004-005-084.

  Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for MIZ006-
     007-085.

  Wind Chill Advisory until 1 PM EST /noon CST/ Sunday for MIZ006-
     012>014-085.

  Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Sunday for MIZ001>003.

  Wind Chill Warning until noon CST Sunday for MIZ009>011.

Lake Superior...
  Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ Monday
     for LSZ162-240>251-263>267.

  Gale Warning until 11 PM EST /10 PM CST/ this evening for
     LSZ240>251-263>267.

Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...TAP
LONG TERM...RJC
AVIATION...TAP
MARINE...TAP

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Marquette MI
601 AM EST Sat Feb 6 2021

MIZ001>003-071115-
Keweenaw-Ontonagon-Northern Houghton-
601 AM EST Sat Feb 6 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western Upper
Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Lake effect snow showers and areas of blowing snow will continue
today and tonight. Expect very poor visibility in the snow
showers and blowing snow. See the latest Winter Weather Message
for further details.

Dangerously cold wind chills will be as low as 20 below to 35
below zero at times today and tonight. Exposed skin can result in
frostbite within 30 minutes.

Some minor lakeshore flooding and beach erosion is expected along
west and northwest west facing beaches of Lake Superior.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Very cold air will remain over the area through next week,
resulting in lake effect snow showers and some blowing snow each
day, especially across the Keweenaw Peninsula. Expect very poor
visibility in the snow showers and blowing snow. Dangerously cold
wind chills will be as low as 25 below to 35 below zero at times.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to submit snowfall reports to the National
Weather Service via phone, on our website, or through Facebook or
Twitter using #906wx.

MIZ009-010-071115-
Gogebic-Iron-
501 AM CST Sat Feb 6 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western Upper
Michigan and central Upper Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Expect very cold conditions this morning with wind chills falling
to as low as 30 below zero. Exposed skin can result in frostbite
within 30 minutes. See the latest Winter Weather Message.

Expect very cold conditions tonight with wind chills falling to
as low as 35 below zero. Exposed skin can result in frostbite
within 30 minutes.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Very cold air will remain over the area through next week. Wind
chills will frequently be as low as around 30 below zero during
nights and mornings.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

The need for weather spotter reports is not anticipated at this
time.

MIZ004-005-011>014-084-071115-
Baraga-Marquette-Dickinson-Menominee-Delta-Southern Schoolcraft-
Southern Houghton-
601 AM EST Sat Feb 6 2021 /501 AM CST Sat Feb 6 2021/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western Upper
Michigan and central Upper Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Expect very cold conditions today and tonight with wind chills
falling to as low as 15 below to 25 below zero overnight. Exposed
skin can result in frostbite within 30 minutes.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Very cold air will remain over the area through next week. Wind
chills will frequently be as low as 20 below to 30 below zero
during nights and mornings.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

The need for weather spotter reports is not anticipated at this
time.

MIZ006-007-085-071115-
Alger-Luce-Northern Schoolcraft-
601 AM EST Sat Feb 6 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Upper
Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Lake effect snow showers and areas of blowing snow will continue
today and tonight. Expect very poor visibility in the snow
showers and blowing snow. See the latest Winter Weather Message
for further details.

Minor lakeshore flooding and beach erosion is expected on the Lake
Superior beaches east of Munising today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Very cold air will then remain over the area through next week,
resulting in lake effect snow at times. Whenever snow showers
occur, expect very poor visibility. Wind chills will be as low as
20 below to 25 below zero at times during nights and mornings.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to submit snowfall reports to the National
Weather Service via phone, on our website, or through Facebook or
Twitter using #906wx.

LSZ162-240>251-263>267-071115-
Lake Superior west of a line from Saxon Harbor WI to Grand
Portage MN beyond 5NM-Saxon Harbor WI to Black River MI-
Black River to Ontonagon MI-
Ontonagon to Upper Entrance of Portage Canal MI-
Upper Entrance of Portage Canal to Eagle River MI-
Eagle River to Manitou Island MI-
Manitou Island to Point Isabelle MI-
Point Isabelle to Lower Entrance of Portage Canal MI-
Lower Entrance of Portage Canal To Huron Islands MI Including
Keweenaw and Huron Bays-Huron Islands to Marquette MI-
Marquette to Munising MI-Munising to Grand Marais MI-
Grand Marais to Whitefish Point MI-
Lake Superior from Saxon Harbor WI to Upper Entrance to Portage
Canal MI 5NM off shore to the US/Canadian border including Isle
Royale National Park-
Lake Superior from Upper Entrance to Portage Canal to Manitou
Island MI 5NM off shore to the US/Canadian Border-
Lake Superior West of Line from Manitou Island to Marquette MI
Beyond 5NM from shore-
Lake Superior East of a line from Manitou Island to Marquette MI
and West of a line from Grand Marais MI to the US/Canadian Border
Beyond 5NM from shore-
Lake Superior from Grand Marais MI to Whitefish Point MI 5NM off
shore to the US/Canadian border-
601 AM EST Sat Feb 6 2021 /501 AM CST Sat Feb 6 2021/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Eastern Lake
Superior...Central Lake Superior and Western Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

West to northwest gales of 35 knots are expected today. Heavy
freezing spray is also expected. See the latest Marine Weather
Message and Open Lake Forecast for further details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Wind gusts of 25 to 30 knots are expected across Lake Superior on
Sunday. Heavy freezing spray is expected over much of Lake
Superior through the middle of next week. See the latest Marine Weather
Message and Open Lake Forecast for further details.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

The need for weather spotter reports is not anticipated at this
time.

LMZ221-248-250-071115-
Green Bay North of line from Cedar River MI to Rock Island
Passage-Seul Choix Point to Point Detour MI-
5NM East of a line from Fairport MI to Rock Island Passage-
601 AM EST Sat Feb 6 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Northern Lake
Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Areas of freezing spray are possible today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

The need for weather spotter reports is not anticipated at this
time.

BW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1038 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     SNOW             1 ENE HANCOCK           47.14N 88.58W
02/06/2021  M5.5 INCH        HOUGHTON           MI   CO-OP OBSERVER

            CO-OP OBSERVER STATION QNCM4 QUINCY HILL.
            THE PERIOD OF THE SNOW EVENT WAS 24 HOURS.

0800 AM     SNOW             2 SE HERMAN             46.65N 88.33W
02/06/2021  M2.0 INCH        BARAGA             MI   CO-OP OBSERVER

            CO-OP OBSERVER STATION HERM4 2.0 SE HERMAN.
            THE PERIOD OF THE SNOW EVENT WAS 24 HOURS.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1052 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 AM     SNOW             PAINESDALE              47.04N 88.67W
02/06/2021  M8.6 INCH        HOUGHTON           MI   CO-OP OBSERVER

            CO-OP OBSERVER STATION PDLM4 PAINESDALE. THE
            PERIOD OF THE SNOW EVENT WAS 24 HOURS.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1250 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 AM     SNOW             8 N MASS CITY           46.87N 89.10W
02/06/2021  M7.1 INCH        ONTONAGON          MI   CO-OP OBSERVER

            CO-OP OBSERVER STATION GNLM4 GREENLAND 6 N.
            THE PERIOD OF THE SNOW EVENT WAS 24 HOURS.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
140 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0100 PM     SNOW             1 WSW TWIN LAKES        46.89N 88.85W
02/06/2021  M5.0 INCH        HOUGHTON           MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SNOWFALL OVER APPROXIMATLY THE LAST 24
            HOURS.

&&