Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1139 PM CDT Thu Sep 16 2021

.UPDATED for 06Z Aviation Discussion...
Issued at 1132 PM CDT Thu Sep 16 2021

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 253 PM CDT Thu Sep 16 2021

Regional radar and enhanced satellite imagery is showing convection
developing along the international border in northwest Minnesota. RGB
enhanced satellite does show more glaciated clouds across northern
Minnesota with only water clouds across the central part of the
state. Southern Minnesota remains clear and windy as surface winds
have gusted up to 40 to 45 mph along the Buffalo Ridge in southwest
Minnesota, to 25 to 40 mph elsewhere over the southern half of
Minnesota, and parts of west central Wisconsin.

Temperatures this afternoon have even exceeded the 90% of the NBM
along the Buffalo Ridge where local effects allowed temperatures to
rise into the 90s. I wouldn't be surprised to see additional 90s in
southern Minnesota before the late afternoon. Even with these
temperatures a strong mid-level CAP has suppressed any clouds to
form in most of MPX CWA. In addition to the RGB images, the
satellite derived stability indices does show an enhanced area of
both higher K-Indices, and CAPE values over west central Minnesota
this afternoon. Farther to the west along the cold front, these
indices are much lower which indicates that once the cold front
arrives later this afternoon/early evening along this enhanced area
of greater instability and moisture, convection should develop. This
area is also under 45 to 55 knots of bulk wind shear which will
force any convection to become organized quickly. Therefore, once
convection develops, there will be a small window where both the
instability and higher wind shear values allow for severe storms.

Later this evening, as a potent shortwave that is evident across
western North Dakota this afternoon arrives over the Upper Midwest,
the isolated/scattered nature of the convection will likely congeal
into a large area of showers and thunderstorms along and behind this
cold front. Any severe storms early will likely weaken as the
instability weakens overnight. The bulk of the showers and
thunderstorms will occur late this evening and overnight before
becoming more scattered toward morning as this system exits
Minnesota, and west central Wisconsin. Friday will see some residual
showers in the far southeast CWA but clearing will occur by the
afternoon. High pressure will dominate the weather Friday night with
lows dropping into the 40s, with a few upper 30s possible in the
typical cools spots in central Minnesota, and west central
Wisconsin.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 253 PM CDT Thu Sep 16 2021

The upper-level pattern will amplify through the weekend as ridging
centers over the eastern CONUS, providing subsidence aloft to build
high pressure across the region.

A chilly start to the long term period is likely with low
temperatures in the 40s Saturday morning. Temperatures quickly
rebound into the 70s in the afternoon. As the high pressure shifts
to the east, a warm front lifts through the area associated with a
low pressure in southern Canada. This allows strong WAA to develop
and push high temperatures into the mid to upper 80s on Sunday.
Additionally, a longwave trough working across the CONUS will
generate a sub-1000mb low pressure that will track from the Northern
Plains into Hudson Bay during the first half of next week. The cold
front is expected to move into western Minnesota by Tuesday and
continue through the area by Tuesday evening. This front will bring
our next chance at precipitation with scattered
showers/thunderstorms along the frontal boundary.

For Wednesday and Thursday, the cold front shifts into the Great
Lakes region leaving behind little in the way of sensible weather. A
few diurnal showers could pop up Wednesday afternoon as the core of
cold air aloft is overhead. Otherwise, both days will feature highs
in the 60s with lows in the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1132 PM CDT Thu Sep 16 2021

A line of storms will move in from the Dakotas and sweep through the
region overnight. The main threat with these storms is lightning. Winds
will be southerly ahead of a passing cold front, and then take on a
north/northwesterly direction behind it. Look for VFR conditions to
return for Friday.

KMSP...
Storms will arrive after 07Z tonight. The main threat will be
lightning. Winds will shift from the south and become northwesterly.
The wind shift could occur around 09Z. VFR conditions will follow for
Friday.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Sat...VFR. Wind Increasing SSE 10-15 kts by aftn.
Sun...VFR. Wind SSW 10-20G25 kts.
Mon...MVFR/-SHRA with TSRA/IFR possible as a strong cold front
passes through. Wind S at 10G20 bcmg NW at 10G15 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...BPH
AVIATION...JRB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
933 PM CDT Thu Sep 16 2021

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
180245-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
933 PM CDT Thu Sep 16 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota, and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

The first round of thunderstorms is diminishing, but a second
round will come from the Dakotas overnight. This second round is
not expected to be severe but could produce locally gusty winds,
small hail and heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

A few strong storms will be possible Monday night and Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation will not be needed.

jrb

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
110 AM CDT Fri Sep 17 2021

MNZ045-052-170630-
Isanti MN-Kanabec MN-
110 AM CDT Fri Sep 17 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southern Kanabec and
northwestern Isanti Counties through 130 AM CDT...

At 110 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Ogilvie, or 19 miles northwest of Cambridge, moving northeast at 55
mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Brunswick around 115 AM CDT.
  Mora around 120 AM CDT.
  Grasston and Quamba around 125 AM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4598 9306 4598 9314 4575 9314 4565 9345
      4574 9352 4583 9351 4603 9306
TIME...MOT...LOC 0610Z 232DEG 49KT 4578 9344

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

TDH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
120 AM CDT Fri Sep 17 2021

MNZ049-050-170645-
Benton MN-Stearns MN-
120 AM CDT Fri Sep 17 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Benton and east
central Stearns Counties through 145 AM CDT...

At 120 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Sauk Rapids, or over St. Cloud, moving northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Foley around 135 AM CDT.

This includes U.S. Highway 10 in Minnesota between mile markers 167
and 178, and near mile marker 180.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4563 9375 4555 9410 4556 9414 4554 9415
      4552 9425 4564 9434 4583 9394 4582 9391
TIME...MOT...LOC 0620Z 239DEG 41KT 4560 9420

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

TDH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
148 AM CDT Fri Sep 17 2021

MNZ043>045-050-052-170715-
Isanti MN-Benton MN-Morrison MN-Mille Lacs MN-Kanabec MN-
148 AM CDT Fri Sep 17 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of western Kanabec,
southern Mille Lacs, northwestern Isanti, eastern Benton and
southeastern Morrison Counties through 215 AM CDT...

At 148 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Foreston, or 21 miles northeast of St. Cloud, moving northeast at 60
mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Milaca around 155 AM CDT.
  Bock around 200 AM CDT.

Other locations in the path of this storm include Ogilvie and Mora.

This includes U.S. Highway 169 between mile markers 185 and 205.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4560 9388 4578 9398 4610 9340 4575 9315
TIME...MOT...LOC 0648Z 240DEG 52KT 4575 9382

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

TDH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
153 AM CDT Fri Sep 17 2021

MNZ065>067-075-170730-
McLeod MN-Sibley MN-Renville MN-Nicollet MN-
153 AM CDT Fri Sep 17 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Sibley, McLeod,
eastern Renville and northwestern Nicollet Counties through 230 AM
CDT...

At 153 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Fairfax, or 19 miles east of Redwood Falls, moving northeast at 60
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Buffalo Lake around 205 AM CDT.
  Stewart around 210 AM CDT.

Other locations in the path of this storm include Brownton and
Glencoe.

This includes U.S. Highway 212 between mile markers 89 and 120.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4440 9467 4467 9490 4490 9453 4489 9450
      4491 9450 4498 9438 4498 9432 4459 9400
      4439 9465
TIME...MOT...LOC 0653Z 240DEG 52KT 4459 9472

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

TDH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
155 AM CDT FRI SEP 17 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0146 AM     TSTM WND GST     1 SSE NORTH REDWOOD     44.55N 95.08W
09/17/2021  M54 MPH          REDWOOD            MN   ASOS

            ASOS STATION KRWF REDWOOD FALLS AP.

&&

TDH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
200 AM CDT Fri Sep 17 2021

MNZ067-074>076-083-170730-
Le Sueur MN-Brown MN-Blue Earth MN-Sibley MN-Nicollet MN-
200 AM CDT Fri Sep 17 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Le
Sueur, southeastern Sibley, southeastern Brown, northwestern Blue
Earth and Nicollet Counties through 230 AM CDT...

At 200 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 6
miles southeast of Sleepy Eye, or 10 miles southwest of New Ulm,
moving northeast at 60 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  New Ulm around 210 AM CDT.
  Courtland around 215 AM CDT.
  Lafayette around 220 AM CDT.

This includes the following highways...
 U.S. Highway 14 between mile markers 86 and 123.
 U.S. Highway 169 between mile markers 59 and 76.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4425 9481 4440 9465 4460 9401 4428 9383
      4411 9469 4411 9474
TIME...MOT...LOC 0700Z 240DEG 52KT 4422 9463

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

TDH