Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
711 PM CDT Fri May 14 2021

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 307 PM CDT Fri May 14 2021

Surface analysis this afternoon shows the Upper Midwest caught
between a pair of east-west stalled frontal boundaries, one just
north of the international border and a second from the mid-
Mississippi River Valley region westward across the Central Plains
into the Rockies. A weak surface low/trough feature is over far west-
central MN. Aloft, a pattern of weak troughing over the eastern
CONUS with weak ridging over the Rockies puts the Upper Midwest over
modest northwest flow, contributing to the influx of Pacific
moisture and cooler air over the region.

The western ridge will nudge a bit eastward tonight through
Saturday, which will also nudge the surface trough across MN and
into western WI during the day Saturday. As such, ongoing
precipitation scattered over the WFO MPX coverage area will be
mainly limited to eastern portions late Saturday into Saturday
night. The added moisture, which has taken the form of cloud cover
due to the pronounced dry layer in the lower 6-8 kft, has helped
keep convection in check but a few isolated thunderstorms have
finally popped in the far eastern Dakotas along the MN state line,
where sunlight is most prevalent to aid in heightened instability.
While SPC has eliminated the Marginal Risk, some thunderstorms with
sub-severe hail cannot be ruled out due to steepened lapse rates
with the colder air aloft.

Any thunderstorms will dissipate late tonight with no additional
thunderstorms expected with the possible precipitation over eastern
parts of the coverage area Saturday into Saturday night.

Temperatures are still expected to warm, mainly due to increasing H7-
H5 heights late tonight through Saturday night, since full sunshine
on Saturday is not necessarily expected with the surface trough
slogging its way across MN/WI. That said, highs are still expected
to increase from the 60s area-wide today to the mid-60s to mid 70s
tomorrow. Lows both tonight and tomorrow night will generally run in
the mid 40s to lower 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 307 PM CDT Fri May 14 2021

Relatively benign weather returns for the start of next week, but a
more active pattern does appear to develop by the end of next week.

The period starts out with broad ridging taking hold over much of
the CONUS during the later half of the weekend, and persisting into
midweek. This will keep temperatures on the warmer end, with above
normal temperatures returning after a lengthy absence. Highs in the
upper 70s to low 80s look possible with overnight lows in the 50s to
near 60 towards the later half of the week. The forecast looks
mostly dry through midweek, with the main system of note being a low
that cuts off over the southwestern US. A few disturbances spinning
off of this feature could migrate into the area and bring some low
precipitation chances into southern Minnesota, but overall dry
weather is expected through at least Wednesday.

An amplified trough moves onshore the Pacific Coast midweek, and
ushers in more meridional flow into the region. This has the effect
of amplifying and tilting the ridge more over the eastern US,
allowing any disturbances shed off of the western trough to pass
over the region. Guidance remains in fairly good agreement with
depicting widespread precipitation chances Thursday into Friday, so
have kept PoPs in the likely range for the end of next week. The
meridional flow aloft will also allow for warmer and more humid Gulf
air to flow into the region, which will likely lead to at least a
few periods of thunderstorms. Anomalously high precipitable water
values also return to the region, which increases the possibility of
a soaking rainfall.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 711 PM CDT Fri May 14 2021

Scattered showers and thunderstorms across western MN should remain
away from the TAF sites. Otherwise, cigs expected to lower tonight to
MVFR levels in some places. Guidance is too pessimistic with IFR
cigs area wide, but if it were to occur AXN would be the most likely
place. Kept the TEMPO for IFR there very late tonight for now, but
this could be removed with the next update.

KMSP...Generally VFR through the period. Could still see brief
instances of MVFR cigs late tonight and early Saturday, but believe
the risk of a prolonged stretch is too low to continue the prevailing
MVFR in the TAF.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Sun-Wed...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...ETA
AVIATION...Borghoff

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
300 PM CDT Fri May 14 2021

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
152000-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
300 PM CDT Fri May 14 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota, and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation will not be needed.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
559 PM CDT Fri May 14 2021

MNZ054-142345-
Lac Qui Parle-
559 PM CDT Fri May 14 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WEST CENTRAL LAC QUI PARLE
COUNTY...

At 559 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Marietta, or 17
miles southeast of Milbank, moving east at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and dime size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Madison, Marietta, Cerro Gordo and Madison Airport.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 4500 9642 4511 9641 4510 9606 4492 9607
TIME...MOT...LOC 2259Z 273DEG 18KT 4505 9635

ETA

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
626 PM CDT Fri May 14 2021

MNZ055-150015-
Swift-
626 PM CDT Fri May 14 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN SWIFT COUNTY...

At 626 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Correll, or 16
miles east of Ortonville, moving southeast at 15 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and half inch hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Appleton.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 4528 9611 4515 9588 4515 9604 4518 9610
      4524 9610 4524 9612
TIME...MOT...LOC 2326Z 304DEG 13KT 4523 9613

ETA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
633 PM CDT FRI MAY 14 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     HAIL             MADISON                 45.01N 96.19W
05/14/2021  E0.70 INCH       LAC QUI PARLE      MN   911 CALL CENTER

            SEVERAL REPORTS OF ACCUMULATING PEA SIZED
            HAIL. A FEW STONES AS LARGE AS DIMES.

&&

BORGHOFF

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
640 PM CDT Fri May 14 2021

MNZ054-064-150030-
Yellow Medicine-Lac Qui Parle-
640 PM CDT Fri May 14 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN LAC QUI PARLE AND NORTH
CENTRAL YELLOW MEDICINE COUNTIES...

At 639 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Dawson, or 18
miles west of Montevideo, moving southeast at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and half inch hail are possible with this
storm. Accumulation of small hail up to several inches in depth is
possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Dawson, Clarkfield, Boyd and Providence.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 4495 9608 4506 9606 4498 9582 4496 9582
      4495 9580 4493 9573 4491 9572 4490 9568
      4488 9564 4472 9587 4476 9619 4496 9631
TIME...MOT...LOC 2339Z 294DEG 20KT 4496 9610

ETA

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
720 PM CDT Fri May 14 2021

MNZ064-150100-
Yellow Medicine-
720 PM CDT Fri May 14 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTH CENTRAL YELLOW MEDICINE
COUNTY...

At 719 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 8 miles southwest of
Boyd, or 19 miles southwest of Montevideo, moving southeast at 20
mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and half inch hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Porter and St. Leo.

Accumulating small hail is occurring with this storm which may result
in slick roads and difficult travel.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 4476 9622 4472 9588 4463 9586 4463 9618
TIME...MOT...LOC 0019Z 333DEG 18KT 4477 9603

ETA

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
740 PM CDT Fri May 14 2021

MNZ054-064-150130-
Yellow Medicine-Lac Qui Parle-
740 PM CDT Fri May 14 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTH CENTRAL LAC QUI PARLE AND
CENTRAL YELLOW MEDICINE COUNTIES...

At 740 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 9 miles northeast of
Porter, or 21 miles southwest of Montevideo, moving southeast at 15
mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and half inch hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Providence, Spring Creek, Spellman Lake and St. Leo.

Accumulating small hail is occurring with this storm which may result
in slick roads and difficult travel.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 4489 9604 4469 9573 4463 9582 4463 9606
      4481 9625
TIME...MOT...LOC 0040Z 329DEG 11KT 4475 9606

Borghoff