Dense Fog Advisory 9, NWS Twin Cities, MN

632 
WWUS73 KMPX 090856
NPWMPX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
356 AM CDT Fri Apr 9 2021

MNZ041>043-047>049-055-057-091400-
/O.CON.KMPX.FG.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-210409T1400Z/
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-Swift-Kandiyohi-
Including the cities of Alexandria, Long Prairie, Little Falls, 
Morris, Glenwood, St Cloud, Benson, and Willmar
356 AM CDT Fri Apr 9 2021

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS
MORNING...

* WHAT...Visibility one quarter mile in dense fog.

* WHERE...Douglas, Todd, Morrison, Stevens, Pope, Stearns, Swift 
  and Kandiyohi Counties.

* WHEN...Until 9 AM CDT Friday.

* IMPACTS...Hazardous driving conditions due to low visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If driving, slow down, use your headlights, and leave plenty of
distance ahead of you.

&&

$$

Hewett

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
655 PM CDT Thu Apr 8 2021

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Thu Apr 8 2021

The storm system that has been impacting us since Tuesday will
continue to influence us during the short term period, though by the
end of this period at 12z Saturday, this surface low will be up by
Thunder Bay, with its influence locally finally starting to wane.
We'll continue to have rounds of rain/drizzle work across the area
through Friday as the surface low slowly meanders to the north, with
a slow drying trend finally expected Friday night as the low slowly
pulls out of the area.

Surface low today has made it up to the Albert Lea area. The one
difference of today verse Wednesday is the mild airmass that brought
highs back into the 70s across eastern MN and western WI is bottled
up to the south of a warm front that's down across southwest WI into
northeast IL. This warm front will head north through the day, but
will remain east of us, so no more 70s for what looks to be much of
the next 2 weeks. Instead we'll stay in the 60s over eastern
MN/western WI, with highs in the 40s/50s areawide on Friday as we
finally get on to the cool side of this system and have a day that
looks to be dominated by clouds and yet more rain.

For precip, activity we've seen today is being forced by the dry slot
that has been moving north out of Iowa. This dry slot will continue
to push north the rest of the day, which will push the steadier
rainfall up into northern MN and WI and nudge the deformation precip
on the western side of the system over to the Dakotas. This will
result in not much more than drizzle across our entire area late this
afternoon and evening. Tonight, yet another lobe of energy and
shield of rain will move into western WI. This will be in response to
the h5 low moving up into western WI tonight. The hi-res models are
in pretty good agreement on developing any area of rain over western
WI after 3am in response to the vorticity advection ahead of the mid-
level rain. They all show some flavor of this area of rain slowly
nudging west Friday morning, turning into a deformation area of
precipitation that parks itself right over the MN portion of the CWA
to the west of the surface low. This likely means Friday will be
characterized by light rain and drizzle pretty much all day for our
MN area, with drier air working into western WI during the afternoon
as a dry slot develops between the deformation region over MN and the
upper low over toward central WI. Finally, the cooler temperatures
we see this period means we have minimal instability. We will still
see some convective showers this afternoon, but not enough
instability to get lightning going, so we will be thunderstorm free
from here on out.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Thu Apr 8 2021

On Saturday morning, rain showers finally vacate the northeastern
CWA as this week's closed upper-level low travels north-northeast
into Ontario. The weekend actually looks relatively dry as shortwave
ridging translates southeast into the Northern Plains starting
Saturday morning. Cloud cover is forecast to dissipate from west to
east across MN Saturday with highs in the mid 50s. Saturday night's
lows will be in the mid 30s to near 40. A slight chance of rain does
exist across our extreme eastern WI counties as an occluding low
pressure system bends northward from IL into eastern WI/Lake
Michigan. Sunday appears to be the nicest and warmest day we could
see for the rest of the period. Forecast highs are in the upper 50s
to lower 60s with mostly to partly sunny skies amid northwesterly
flow.

Chances for rain return again Sunday night into Monday as a slowly
moving upper-level trough encroaches on our region from the west.
While on approach, the trough is forecast to become progressively
more negatively tilted developing a weak surface low somewhere over
the Upper Midwest. Differences exist within the deterministic
guidance with the 12Z GFS having a stronger low over western MN by
Monday morning. Meanwhile, the 12Z ECMWF and GEM have a weaker low
over northern WI. Regardless, 0.5-1.0" of QPF is mostly favored
within the guidance over the northern halves of MN and WI. NBM's
current PoPs max out near 50% in extreme northern MN, decreasing to
around 20% across our central CWA. The low pressure system should
steadily occlude into Tuesday as the upper-level trough shears out
and cuts off. Precip will dissipate Monday evening as low-level CAA
occurs on the backside of the low.

The newly formed cutoff low is forecast to stall out over the Great
Lakes Tuesday into Wednesday, causing additional CAA into the
Northern Plains. Mid-next week looks pretty cool with highs Tuesday
dipping well into the 40s along with possible subfreezing lows
Monday and Tuesday night (especially across western MN).
Frost/freeze headlines may be needed in the future. Temperatures
should improve slightly after Wednesday, though cooler weather will
remain as ensemble guidance favors 500 mb low height anomalies over
the northern/northeastern CONUS into next weekend. It may be awhile
before we come close to seeing 80s again.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 654 PM CDT Thu Apr 8 2021

IFR cigs and visibilities are ongoing across central and western MN
with VFR conditions continuing across east central MN and WI.
Conditions will deteriorate area wide tonight with diminishing winds.
Dense fog is possible later tonight where IFR conditions are ongoing.
Another batch of rain will rotate in from the east/northeast late
tonight and Friday.

KMSP...Gusty south winds behind a boundary will slowly diminish this
evening and turn more southeast before becoming light and variable
overnight. Cigs should fall to IFR for most of Friday with occasional
showers.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...MVFR. Wind NW at 5-15 kts.
SUN...VFR. Winds NW 5-10 kts.
MON...CIGS VFR morning, bcmg MVFR in aftn. Winds WNW 10-20 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...CTG
AVIATION...Borghoff

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
334 PM CDT Thu Apr 8 2021

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
092045-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
334 PM CDT Thu Apr 8 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota, and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation will not be needed.