Special Weather Statement, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1236 PM CDT Sat Oct 2 2021

.NEAR TERM /Now Through Sunday/...A weak mid to upper level
shortwave moves towards the area this afternoon and evening,
transiting the area overnight tonight into Sunday. Meanwhile, our
main upper level trough over the central Plains states today
shifting to the Great Lakes by Sunday afternoon/evening.

A few showers and thunderstorms exist currently across the FL
panhandle/southwestern AL into the marine areas. Expect this
coverage to gradually increase as our shortwave begins to move in,
with scattered to at times numerous showers and thunderstorms.
Best coverage will be over southwestern AL into southeastern MS,
with scattered coverage elsewhere. PWATs remain in the 1.8 to 2.0
inch range, and will foster heavy rainfall in any thunderstorm.
Given storms will have some motion to them, not anticipating much
in the way of any flooding threats at least through Sunday. For
the rest of today, highs should top out in the middle 80's.
Heading into tonight, there will be a brief lull in convective
activity after sunset. CAMs suggest a quick uptick in convection
during the overnight hours into early morning, mainly over
southeastern MS into southwestern AL. Temperatures overnight will
fall into the upper 60's and lower 70's.

For Sunday, morning activity should gradually increase in
coverage, with numerous showers and thunderstorms expected for
most areas along and west of the I-65 corridor. Further east
scattered to at times numerous showers and thunderstorms is
expected. Once again not anticipating much of a flooding threat,
although if any training of showers and thunderstorms can occur
then a nuisance flood threat for low-lying/urban areas may
materialize. Given extensive cloud cover and expected
precipitation coverage, highs will be tempered in the lower 80's.
A few middle 80's readings may be achievable further east along
and east of the I-65 corridor where there is slightly less
convective coverage. A MODERATE risk of rip currents remains in
place through the period. MM/25

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z issuance...VFR conditions prevail for now across the region,
with a few showers and thunderstorms developing and moving inland
across coastal sections of AL and the FL panhandle. Expect this
coverage to increase and move inland, and instances of MVFR to IFR
ceilings/visibility may be possible underneath the heavier
convection. An increase in convective coverage is expected
overnight tonight into Sunday morning, bringing potential for
temporary MVFR to IFR conditions once again. MM/25

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
244 PM CDT Sat Oct 2 2021

ALZ052-053-261-262-022045-
Clarke AL-Baldwin Inland AL-Washington AL-Mobile Inland AL-
244 PM CDT Sat Oct 2 2021

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northeastern Mobile,
northwestern Baldwin, southern Washington and south central Clarke
Counties through 345 PM CDT...

At 244 PM CDT, National Weather Service doppler radar indicated
strong thunderstorms along a line extending from 11 miles northwest
of Poarch Creek Reservation to Calvert to near Gulfcrest. Movement
was north at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Citronelle, Gulfcrest, Deer Park, Mount Vernon, Calvert, McIntosh and
Movico.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3118 8840 3139 8813 3145 8770 3141 8770
      3137 8773 3134 8772 3133 8775 3136 8775
      3136 8777 3135 8777 3133 8779 3131 8779
      3130 8777 3130 8771 3128 8770 3107 8769
      3106 8799 3091 8818
TIME...MOT...LOC 1944Z 163DEG 11KT 3119 8773 3115 8804 3099 8819

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

MM