Special Weather Statement, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1254 PM CDT Mon Jul 5 2021

.NEAR TERM /Now Through Tuesday/...A weak upper level
weakness located over the north central Gulf (left behind by an
upper trough exiting well off to the northeast) will slowly lift
northward this afternoon and then gradually retreat westward
through Tuesday (but still remains over our region) as TS Elsa
progresses north towards the far southeastern and eastern Gulf
just off to the west of the Florida peninsula. This will result in
a continuations of scattered to occasionally numerous showers and
storms across the region this afternoon and evening, with the more
widespread and heavier rainfall occurring over the southern half
of our forecast area (especially the coastal counties). We have
issued several Flood Advisories and a Flash Flood warning over
parts of the western Florida panhandle earlier today, and we will
be monitoring for a possible Flash Flood Watch over portions of
our area. It may be that the pockets of heaviest rainfall are too
scattered to require a watch, but we will take a further look at
the data. One factor to consider is that storm motion will be
slow, and combined with very moist airmass, excessive rainfall is
possible at any particular location through tonight and into
Tuesday. In terms of severe weather this afternoon and Tuesday,
none is expected at this time, although precipitation loading
could lead to some strong downdrafts each afternoon. /12

&&

.AVIATION /05.18Z Issuance/...Mixed VFR/MVFR ceilings across most
of the region this afternoon and evening, but some localized IFR
ceilings/vsbys near scattered to locally numerous showers and
thunderstorms. This afternoon the storms will be most numerous
near coastal areas, spreading a little further inland this
evening. Showers and storms are expected to be scattered to
widespread across the region on Tuesday, with MVFR to IFR
conditions expected. Surface winds primarily light southeast to
south, but stronger gusts and more variable near showers and
storms. /12

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk until midnight CDT tonight for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk until midnight CDT tonight for FLZ202-204-
     206.

MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
152 PM CDT Mon Jul 5 2021

ALZ052-053-261-262-051945-
Clarke AL-Baldwin Inland AL-Washington AL-Mobile Inland AL-
152 PM CDT Mon Jul 5 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
NORTHEASTERN MOBILE...NORTHWESTERN BALDWIN...SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON
AND SOUTH CENTRAL CLARKE COUNTIES UNTIL 245 PM CDT...

At 152 PM CDT, the strong thunderstorm was located 11 miles east of
Calvert, or 21 miles north of Bay Minette, moving northwest at 15
mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Stockton, Mount Vernon, Calvert, McIntosh, Movico and I65 And AL 225.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3106 8820 3144 8805 3132 8778 3131 8778
      3130 8777 3130 8774 3129 8771 3092 8783
TIME...MOT...LOC 1852Z 114DEG 13KT 3119 8781

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
207 PM CDT Mon Jul 5 2021

MSZ076-051945-
Greene MS-
207 PM CDT Mon Jul 5 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
NORTHERN GREENE COUNTY UNTIL 245 PM CDT...

At 207 PM CDT, the strong thunderstorm was located 7 miles northeast
of Leakesville, moving northwest at 15 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northern Greene
County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3144 8873 3144 8864 3130 8844 3122 8844
      3118 8847 3124 8884
TIME...MOT...LOC 1907Z 114DEG 13KT 3126 8850