Special Weather Statement, NWS Melbourne, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1003 AM EST Tue Mar 2 2021

.UPDATE...
Current-Tonight...A cold front driving down the peninsula has
slowed its forward progress, and remains stationary from Melbourne
to Tampa. Behind the front, slightly drier air has filtered in,
evidenced in lowering dewpoints from Daytona to Leesburg, with
scattered to broken stratus also filling in across the northern
forecast area. Early morning isolated sprinkles over the interior
have since dissipated, with lingering activity over the Atlantic
waters and a few returns expanding from Lake Okeechobee to the
Treasure Coast.

The influence of the stalled front will keep higher moisture in
place today, with PoPs steadily increasing north to south up to 30-
40%, with most favorable setup north of the boundary. Stark contrast
in afternoon highs north of the I-4 corridor, which has already felt
a post-frontal airmass and extensive cloud cover. Highs in the mid
70s for Volusia and northern Lake, increasing to the lower 80s
across Orlando and Brevard counties, the to the mid 70s in the Lake
Okeechobee vicinity.

Tonight, shower chances will linger through at least midnight, but
with winds veering southwesterly, most activity will retreat to the
Atlantic waters. The stalled boundary will begin to lift northward
later tonight as a warm front, aiding in the clearing of shower
activity but also increasing cloud cover. Lows tonight continue the
above normal trend, bottoming out in the mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
Stalled front from KMLB to KPIE leading to low stratus development
for all terminals north of KMCO. MVFR/IFR will dominate today in a
moist airmass, although a few breaks in clouds will be possible
along the coast from MLB south. Isolated showers this morning near
FPR/SUA, but coverage not high enough to warrant inclusion. This
afternoon, showers will increase from KDAB to KISM/KTIX, which may
prompt addition of TEMPO at 18Z. As the stalled front lifts north
later tonight as a warm front, shower coverage will clear but
possibility of IFR stratus towards daybreak.

&&

.MARINE...
Today-Tonight...(modified previous) Hazardous boating conditions
developing today north of Sebastian Inlet, with a stalled front
positioned south of Cape Canaveral. N winds veering E into the
afternoon, with 15-20kts across the offshore zones of Volusia and
Brevard Counties and 10-15kts across their nearshore zones. Seas
building to 4-6ft nearshore and 6-8ft offshore today in these
areas. A Small Craft Advisory will go into effect for the offshore
zones today and small craft should exercise caution nearshore.
Along the Treasure Coast, winds remaining 5-10kts, with seas
generally 2-4ft, though building up to 6ft well offshore tonight.
Shower chances increasing through the day today, then decreasing
tonight as the stalled front lifts northward as a warm front and
winds veer S/SW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  73  64  73  53 /  40  20  60   0
MCO  80  65  78  54 /  30  20  60   0
MLB  80  66  78  56 /  30  20  60   0
VRB  82  66  80  58 /  20  20  60  10
LEE  77  65  77  53 /  30  30  60   0
SFB  77  65  77  53 /  30  20  60   0
ORL  79  67  78  55 /  30  20  60   0
FPR  83  66  82  59 /  20  20  50  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Wednesday for Volusia-
     Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Wednesday for Flagler Beach
     to Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm.

&&

Smith/Combs/Haley

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
447 AM EST Tue Mar 2 2021

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-030000-
Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to Volusia-
Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Inland Volusia-
Northern Lake-Orange-Seminole-Southern Brevard-Osceola-
Indian River-Okeechobee-St. Lucie-Martin-Coastal Volusia-
Southern Lake-Northern Brevard-
447 AM EST Tue Mar 2 2021

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
Rough surf with breaking waves of 4 to 6 feet and a high risk of
dangerous rip currents expected today at the Atlantic beaches of
Brevard and Volusia Counties. Along the Treasure Coast, a moderate
risk of rip currents is expected. While rip currents will be
present all day, the threat will be highest from 2PM to 6PM this
afternoon.

Large breaking waves can knock you off your feet and make you
even more susceptible to becoming caught in the seaward pull of a
rip current. Swimming is not advised in the high risk area. Only
swim near a lifeguard. If caught in a rip current, relax and
float. Don't swim against the current. If able, swim in a
direction following the shoreline. If unable to escape, face the
shore and call or wave for help.

.WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
Northerly winds this morning veering easterly into this afternoon
and increasing to 15-20 knots with seas of 6 to 8 feet beyond 20nm
from the Brevard and Volusia Coasts. A Small Craft Advisory will
go into effect for the offshore Volusia zone at 7AM this morning
and the offshore Brevard zone at 1PM this afternoon. Due to seas 4
to 6 feet, small craft should exercise caution in the nearshore
Brevard and Volusia waters today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
At least a moderate risk of rip currents and hazardous seas are
expected to continue into mid-week.

A chance of lightning storms will be ongoing Wednesday morning into
Wednesday afternoon as a low pressure center moves across north
Florida early Wednesday. A few storms could become strong with gusty
winds and possibly small hail. Another low pressure center is
forecast to develop over the gulf of Mexico on Saturday. There will
be a chance of storms Saturday with approach of this system, with a
few of the storms possibly becoming strong as the low and associated
cold front crosses the state late Saturday. Strong winds and
building seas, with rough surf conditions are expected over the open
Atlantic Sunday and into early next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation will not be needed today and tonight.

Leahy

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
302 PM EST Tue Mar 2 2021

FLZ045-144-022045-
Orange FL-Southern Lake County FL-
302 PM EST Tue Mar 2 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN LAKE AND
SOUTHWESTERN ORANGE COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM EST...

At 301 PM EST, Doppler radar was tracking an intense shower over
Clermont, or near Ferndale, moving east-southeast at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm. Funnel
clouds will also be possible.

Locations impacted include...
Orlando, Ocoee, Winter Garden, Groveland and Windermere.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 2849 8186 2867 8181 2861 8137 2835 8145
TIME...MOT...LOC 2001Z 285DEG 17KT 2857 8176

Cristaldi