Special Weather Statement, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
650 PM CDT Thu Aug 19 2021

.UPDATE...
Updated 00z Aviation Discussion.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 251 PM CDT Thu Aug 19 2021/

DISCUSSION...

Skies remain mostly clouds across the Mid-South this afternoon
with temperatures mainly in the 80s to around 90 degrees.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to move across the
region this afternoon.

Additional showers and thunderstorms have developed to our west
over portions of northern Louisiana, northeast Texas and eastern
Oklahoma. Some of this activity will move into the Mid-South this
evening. In addition, some patchy areas of fog are possible across
portions of west Tennessee overnight. Temperatures will remain on
the warm side with lows Friday morning in the low to mid 70s.
Another round of showers and thunderstorms is expected to start
Friday morning and continue through the afternoon hours.
Temperatures will be similar to today with highs in the mid to
upper 80s. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible
Friday night mainly during the overnight hours.

Saturday will see another round of showers and thunderstorms will
the best chance of rain expected over the eastern half of the
Mid-South. Temperatures will be a little warmer with highs in the
upper 80s to lower 90s. With the warmer temperatures, heat index
values may exceed 105 degrees over western sections of the region.
Scattered thunderstorms will continue into Saturday night and
Sunday. Temperatures will be a little warmer on Sunday so heat
index value may reach 105 or higher over more of the region.

By Sunday night, the chance of rain will diminish with only
scattered afternoon thunderstorms expected for Monday through
Wednesday. Temperatures will remain on the hot side during this
period with some locations having heat index values exceed 110
degrees.

On Wednesday night, a cold front will move into northern sections
of the Mid-South and remain over the region next Thursday. The
front will bring more showers and thunderstorms during this
period.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...
/00z TAFs/
Expect showers to continue through this evening, then a short lull
tomorrow morning. Showers will approach the area yet again by
tomorrow afternoon. Winds should remain 5 to 10 kts. Expect MVFR
conditions through most of the TAF period with periods of VFR. Fog
may also be possible tonight at MKL and TUP.

SWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
411 AM CDT Thu Aug 19 2021

ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-201100-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lee AR-Lee MS-
Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-Panola-Pemiscot-
Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-Shelby-St. Francis-
Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-
Yalobusha-
411 AM CDT Thu Aug 19 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A few strong storms are possible across the Mid-South this
afternoon. The strongest storms will be capable of producing
gusty winds. Locally heavy rainfall may lead to flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue to pose a threat
for locally heavy rainfall Friday and Saturday.

Hot and humid conditions will return this weekend into early next
week with heat indices approaching 105 degrees.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

MJ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
342 PM CDT Thu Aug 19 2021

MSZ023-192115-
Chickasaw MS-
342 PM CDT Thu Aug 19 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Chickasaw
County through 415 PM CDT...

At 342 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Houston, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Houston, Trebloc, McCondy, Anchor and Buena Vista.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3395 8905 3399 8878 3381 8877 3381 8904
TIME...MOT...LOC 2042Z 265DEG 21KT 3390 8894

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
432 PM CDT Thu Aug 19 2021

MSZ024-192200-
Monroe MS-
432 PM CDT Thu Aug 19 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northern Monroe
County through 500 PM CDT...

At 431 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
New Wren, or near Amory, moving south at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Amory, Aberdeen, Prairie, New Wren, Hatley, East Aberdeen, Becker,
Bigbee and Wren.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3401 8872 3406 8845 3384 8832 3377 8872
TIME...MOT...LOC 2131Z 346DEG 18KT 3396 8858

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
728 PM CDT Thu Aug 19 2021

TNZ089-200100-
Fayette TN-
728 PM CDT Thu Aug 19 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Fayette
County through 800 PM CDT...

At 728 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Eads, or 13 miles east of Cordova, moving east at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Arlington, Somerville, Warren, Macon, Oakland, Williston, Yum Yum,
Canadaville, Moorman, Lambert, Hickory Withe, Pattersonville, Powers
and Griffen.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3511 8961 3522 8964 3529 8964 3539 8935
      3513 8927
TIME...MOT...LOC 0028Z 256DEG 9KT 3522 8956

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

SWB