Flash Flood Warning 12, NWS Little Rock, AR

614 
WGUS74 KLZK 280026
FFSLZK

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
726 PM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021

ARC085-095-117-147-280200-
/O.CON.KLZK.FF.W.0012.000000T0000Z-210328T0155Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Lonoke AR-Monroe AR-Prairie AR-Woodruff AR-
726 PM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 855 PM CDT THIS 
EVENING FOR CENTRAL LONOKE, NORTHERN PRAIRIE, NORTHWESTERN MONROE 
AND WOODRUFF COUNTIES...

At 726 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy 
rain will move back into portions of the warned area. Between 2 and 
3 inches of rain have fallen. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected 
to begin shortly.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Doppler radar.

IMPACT...Flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
         highways, streets and underpasses as well as other
         drainage and low lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Lonoke, Des Arc, Hazen, Carlisle, Patterson, Fredonia, Keo, 
  Hunter, Barrettsville, Hallsville, Prairie Center, Thurman, 
  McCreanor, Sisemore, McCrory, Meto, Cotton Plant, Fargo, Bevis 
  Corner and Becton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

A Flash Flood Warning means that flooding is imminent or occurring. 
If you are in the warned area move to higher ground immediately. 
Residents living along streams and creeks should take immediate 
precautions to protect life and property.

&&

LAT...LON 3454 9194 3464 9205 3485 9202 3504 9165
      3503 9164 3503 9159 3508 9158 3509 9157
      3509 9145 3514 9145 3514 9143 3515 9145
      3536 9109 3535 9104 3503 9104 3500 9115
      3497 9115

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED

$$

Cooper

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
316 PM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021

...Severe storms and flash flooding likely today...

.SHORT TERM...Today Through Monday

Local mesoscale analysis data as of 20Z shows a notable potential
temperature gradient stretching from near Mena to Little Rock to
between Jonesboro and Wynne. This boundary has steadily translated
northwest through the morning, although trends in the past couple
hours suggest it may begin to stall soon. Across the warm sector
to the south and east of the boundary, very rich moisture
characterized by dewpoint temps in the 60s and 70s is abundant and
air temperatures in the 70s to low 80s yields 2000 to 3000 J/kg
of surface-based CAPE.

A special 19Z sounding from LZK shows lapse rates aloft on the
order of 7 to 8 C/km with a weak cap in place and just shy of 2000
J/kg surface-based CAPE, which appears largely representative of
the warm sector environment. A sampled effective bulk shear value
of 69 kts suggests convection will readily become organized upon
initiating with at least a few hour window for discrete or semi-
discrete storm modes across the southeastern half of the area. As
a cold front sweeps in from the northwest later this evening and
tonight, a primarily linear storm mode will become favored.

Weak capping in place has largely prevented convective initiation
thusfar, although cumulus are showing increasingly stronger vertical
development over much of the warm sector and transient, weak
radar echoes have become common the last couple hours. Initiation
appears imminent with severe weather possible as early as 21Z.

Initial storms may well assume discrete or semi-discrete modes
based on the magnitude of deep shear present. Strengthening
mesocyclones within initial storms will support potentially large
and destructive hail up to or in excess of 2 inches in diameter
and this will be the primary severe threat for today. Low-level
SRH values remain modest owing to weak flow in the lowest 3 km
suggesting a lesser tornado threat, although a gradual ramping up
of 850 mb flow through the evening will help enlarge hodographs
and support at least isolated tornadoes.

Any storms that interact with the stalled boundary will carry the
highest tornado potential and a significant (EF-2+) tornado
cannot be ruled out. By late evening and tonight as the cold front
pushes through the state, damaging winds will become the most
favored severe threat as storms consolidate into one or more
linear segments along the front.

Regarding rainfall and flood potential... our eastern AR counties
largely missed heavy rain earlier this morning, although soil
conditions certainly support enhanced flash flood potential
through tonight. Anomalously high PWAT values and significant
deep tropospheric moisture transport from the Caribbean will
prime the atmosphere for very heavy downpours with rain rates on
the order of 2+ in/hr in the heavier cells. Deep flow parallel to
the stalled boundary this evening will ensure training convection
which will further enhance the flash flood threat.

Aside from the risk of damaging winds with storms along the cold
front tonight, the overall severe threat will gradually ramp down
overnight. Rain should exit the southeastern sections of the state
by Sunday morning near dawn with dry conditions prevailing
thereafter. In fact, rapidly clearing skies and near-average
temperatures through the end of the period will provide a quite
pleasant end to the weekend and beginning of the workweek.

&&

.LONG TERM...Monday Night Through Friday Night

After the weak ridging and more or less zonal flow aloft over the
central CONUS Friday and Saturday, another strong upper level
shortwave trough will move southeast over the southern CONUS Rockies
and over Texas during the day on Sunday. This shortwave trough is
expected to move over the southern plains and then Arkansas Sunday
evening. The trough is expected to move over the region positively
tilted, resulting in weak lee-side cyclogenesis over the southern
high plains on Sunday. This weak surface low will move east towards
Arkansas Sunday evening bringing a weak frontal boundary across the
state. Out ahead of the trough and surface low, strong low-level
warm air advection will result in scattered rain showers developing
over the state from Sunday mid-morning throughout the remainder of
the day. Strong warm air advection should keep temperatures warm
enough to prevent any wintry precipitation falling, so have all
precipitation falling in liquid form at this time. Between the
strong low-level warm air advection, and scattered rain showers,
most of the snow from our historic winter/snow storm should have
melted away by Sunday afternoon.

Behind the Sunday evening frontal boundary, cooler and much drier
air will build across the state. This frontal boundary will NOT
bring any arctic air across Arkansas, and as a result, with dry air
and clear skies in place over the state on Monday, high temperatures
are expected to climb into the mid 50. Weak upper level ridging
behind Sunday evenings front and upper level trough will remain in
place over Arkansas through Wednesday allowing temperatures to climb
up into the lower to mid 60s Tuesday and Wednesday. If you wanted to
get out and enjoy the snow in your yard...you'll have to do it this
afternoon or Friday as it won't be around long with temperatures
warming rapidly Sunday through the middle of next week.

A strong shortwave trough is expected to move over Arkansas sometime
between Wednesday night and Thursday, and this should bring another
round of rain showers across the state as it approaches and moves
over the state. The timing of this upper level trough is uncertain
at this time, but it also does not appear to be tied to any arctic
air mass, so precipitation is expected to fall as rain through the
extended forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     76  49  63  38 /  60  80   0   0
Camden AR         82  55  69  41 /  80 100   0   0
Harrison AR       77  43  59  39 /  30  40   0   0
Hot Springs AR    78  50  66  40 /  70  80   0   0
Little Rock   AR  77  52  65  40 /  80  90   0   0
Monticello AR     80  57  65  42 /  80 100   0   0
Mount Ida AR      77  49  67  39 /  50  70   0   0
Mountain Home AR  79  45  60  38 /  30  50   0   0
Newport AR        75  51  61  39 /  80  90   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     78  54  65  41 /  80 100   0   0
Russellville AR   79  49  66  39 /  30  60   0   0
Searcy AR         77  50  64  37 /  80  90   0   0
Stuttgart AR      78  54  64  41 /  80 100   0   0
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Flash Flood Watch through Sunday morning FOR Arkansas-Bradley-
Calhoun-Cleveland-Dallas-Desha-Drew-Grant-Jefferson-Lincoln-
Lonoke-Monroe-Ouachita-Prairie-Woodruff.

&&

Short Term...COOPER / Long Term...66

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
411 AM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021

ARZ003>008-012>017-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-280915-
Boone-Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Randolph-Newton-Searcy-Stone-
Izard-Independence-Lawrence-Johnson-Pope-Van Buren-Cleburne-
Jackson-Logan-Conway-Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Scott-Yell-Perry-
Polk-Montgomery-Garland-Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-
Clark-Hot Spring-Grant-Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-
Lincoln-Desha-Ouachita-Calhoun-Bradley-Drew-
411 AM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Thunderstorms will be possible over the much of the state
Saturday, some of which could be strong to severe. The highest
risk of severe storms will be over the southeastern half of
Arkansas, mainly from afternoon through the overnight hours.
Primary hazards will include very large hail and damaging winds
and a couple tornadoes. Additionally, heavy rainfall may pose a flash
flooding threat. Storms over the southeast will tend to form and
train over the same areas for last several hours. Rain in these
areas could become excessive with flash flooding possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday Through Friday

Another round of thunderstorms will be possible for the region Tuesday
through Wednesday, however no organized severe weather is
anticipated at this time.

.Spotter Information Statement...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

&&

Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to http://weather.gov/lzk.

230/46

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
519 PM CDT SAT MAR 27 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0518 PM     HAIL             TOLTEC                  34.65N  92.06W
03/27/2021  E0.75 INCH       LONOKE             AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            AVERAGE HAIL SIZE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LZK2100518

CAVANAUGH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
520 PM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021

ARZ053>055-062-272300-
Hot Spring AR-Grant AR-Clark AR-Dallas AR-
520 PM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN CLARK...SOUTHWESTERN
GRANT...WESTERN DALLAS AND SOUTHEASTERN HOT SPRING COUNTIES UNTIL 600
PM CDT...

At 519 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles east of Whelen Springs, or 18 miles south of Arkadelphia,
moving northeast at 40 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Leola...                          Sparkman...
Carthage...                       Jenkins Ferry State Park...
Thiel...                          Lono...
Tulip...                          Willow...
Brush Creek...                    Dalark...
Manning...                        Vaden...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for central and
southwestern Arkansas.

LAT...LON 3379 9307 3388 9313 3432 9262 3414 9247
      3382 9291 3382 9293 3380 9294 3377 9304
TIME...MOT...LOC 2219Z 228DEG 35KT 3387 9300

62

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
525 PM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021

ARZ034-046-272315-
Prairie AR-Woodruff AR-
525 PM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN WOODRUFF AND
NORTHERN PRAIRIE COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM CDT...

At 525 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Barrettsville, or near Hazen, moving northeast at 35 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Des Arc...                        Barrettsville...
Dixie...                          Sand Hill...
Little Dixie...                   Center Point...
McClelland...                     Childers...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for central and
eastern Arkansas.

LAT...LON 3492 9130 3491 9133 3491 9137 3490 9137
      3490 9139 3489 9138 3480 9169 3492 9169
      3492 9173 3509 9149 3509 9147 3510 9146
      3509 9145 3512 9144 3516 9139 3511 9132
TIME...MOT...LOC 2225Z 227DEG 32KT 3487 9165

Cooper

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
542 PM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021

ARZ004-005-272330-
Baxter AR-Marion AR-
542 PM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN MARION AND
NORTHWESTERN BAXTER COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM CDT...

At 542 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Lakeway, or 12 miles west of Bull Shoals, moving northeast at 35 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Clark Hill...                     Price Place...
Ozark Isle...                     Monarch...
Peel...                           Three Brothers...
Oakland...                        Bull Shoals Lake...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3631 9288 3644 9289 3650 9281 3650 9231
TIME...MOT...LOC 2242Z 233DEG 31KT 3640 9281

Cooper

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
553 PM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021

ARZ041-042-052>054-062-272345-
Hot Spring AR-Pike AR-Clark AR-Dallas AR-Garland AR-Montgomery AR-
553 PM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CLARK...EASTERN PIKE...
NORTHWESTERN DALLAS...SOUTHWESTERN GARLAND...SOUTHWESTERN HOT SPRING
AND SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM CDT...

At 552 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles southwest of Okolona, or 11 miles north of Prescott, moving
northeast at 40 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Arkadelphia...                    Gurdon...
Amity...                          Caddo Valley...
Okolona...                        Beirne...
Gum Springs in Clark County...    Halfway...
Richwoods...                      DeGray Lake State Park...
Donaldson...                      Delight...
Friendship...                     Bismarck...
Antoine...                        Billstown...
Alpine...                         Curtis...
Bonnerdale...                     Point Cedar...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for central,
western and southwestern Arkansas.

LAT...LON 3447 9344 3418 9278 3383 9326 3385 9329
      3388 9331 3389 9330 3392 9333 3392 9334
      3394 9334 3396 9337 3395 9342 3396 9347
      3395 9349 3394 9353 3396 9353 3396 9362
      3398 9365 3398 9367
TIME...MOT...LOC 2252Z 216DEG 35KT 3395 9346

44

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
553 PM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021

ARZ055-056-062-063-272330-
Grant AR-Cleveland AR-Dallas AR-Jefferson AR-
553 PM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN CLEVELAND...CENTRAL
GRANT...NORTHERN DALLAS AND NORTHWESTERN JEFFERSON COUNTIES UNTIL 630
PM CDT...

At 553 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Sheridan to 8 miles west of Carthage.
Movement was northeast at 40 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Sheridan...                       White Hall...
Leola...                          Carthage...
Pine Bluff Arsenal...             Dogwood...
Jenkins Ferry State Park...       Ain...
Pastoria...                       Tulip...
Lock and Dam 5 Park...            Kearney...
Center Grove...                   Clear Lake...
Hardin...                         Dexter...
Millerville...                    Cross Roads in Grant County...
Jefferson...                      Slabtown...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for central,
southeastern and southwestern Arkansas.

LAT...LON 3400 9284 3442 9241 3441 9197 3398 9249
TIME...MOT...LOC 2253Z 232DEG 33KT 3428 9240 3406 9270

62